website credibility:http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

[imbicilic]

Hi I'm new to this forum.
I've read more than a half dozen books on the subject of peak oil and resource depletion out of curiousity and I just found this website so I decided to see if there was any reasoning behind the extremist claims made here for an imminent apocalypse.

I found that it's hard to give credibility to the author(s) of this website- http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/- when in the first few paragraphs statements such as..
"The peak of the curve coincides with the point at which the endowment of oil has been 50 percent depleted."are present. Even a small amount of research or common sense will tell you that this is clearly wrong. And there are other ridiculous statements, which taken together are enough to dissuade someone who might otherwise be swayed.   

[Chip Haynes]

Wow. It's great to finally have an expert among us. Please, lead us towards the light and tell us more.

[JurisDoctorOfDoom]

Hi I'm new to this forum.
I've read more than a half dozen books on the subject of peak oil and resource depletion out of curiousity and I just found this website so I decided to see if there was any reasoning behind the extremist claims made here for an imminent apocalypse.

I found that it's hard to give credibility to the author(s) of this website- http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/- when in the first few paragraphs statements such as..
"The peak of the curve coincides with the point at which the endowment of oil has been 50 percent depleted."are present. Even a small amount of research or common sense will tell you that this is clearly wrong. And there are other ridiculous statements, which taken together are enough to dissuade someone who might otherwise be swayed.   

Word on the board is the guy who wrote that is a raving loon. I wouldn't worry about him too much if I was you.

[imbicilic]

"Wow. It's great to finally have an expert among us"

i'm not an expert and i don't claim to be.

"Word on the board is the guy who wrote that is a raving loon."

i'm trying to help your cause why are you attacking me??
do i have to explain why this is not true..."The peak of the curve coincides with the point at which the endowment of oil has been 50 percent depleted."??

[Leaf]

do i have to explain why this is not true...

Have at it!!! Explain..Ive studied it all..both sides...You just stumbled accross the site a read a few paragraph..Peak Oil is prety deep. Once you get to the point where  you know each nation with oil and how much they produce daily..Then come back here and we can talk...Most people here are pretty well read in the peak oil issues.

[JurisDoctorOfDoom]

"Wow. It's great to finally have an expert among us"

i'm not an expert and i don't claim to be.

"Word on the board is the guy who wrote that is a raving loon."

i'm trying to help your cause why are you attacking me??
do i have to explain why this is not true..."The peak of the curve coincides with the point at which the endowment of oil has been 50 percent depleted."??

Taylor,

It's usually 48-55%. As an example, (in 1971) Texas peaked at 52% if I remember correctly. Newer extraction techniques can push a field's peak back consdierablybut only at the expense of a very steep drop off one the peak is passed.  So production keeps rising till you hit 70% but then drop off considerably after that. This is what people fear is happening to the giant fields like Ghawar and Canterrel. This is all over the PO Blogosphere you can find links from legitimate experts to back it up with a simple google search or two.

To be quite frank we'll play your game a little bit as slapping around asshats does have a certain entertainment value. But if you're here to troll you're going to get your ass kicked and fast once we get tired of playing around with you.

Also keep in mind board rule #5:

If you are here to debate the reality of Peak Oil you are in the wrong forum. This forum is for people who recognize we are already in the midst of massive economic and environmental dislocations and would like to prepare for, mitigate, and minimize those dislocations in their own lives.

Source: http://www.peakoilstore.com/forum/index.php/topic,97.0.html

 

[imbicilic]

peak oil is the peak of production, it is the most amount of oil that the world will produce at one time. and it almost surely does not equate with 50% of existing or even recoverable oil being depleted.
 
for example today most oil wells are abondoned with a large percentage of oil still in the ground. You cannot predict what technologies will be here tomorrow to exploit that oil. (ex:oil sands)


not sure what books you're reading. any expert should clarify this.

its easy to say an oil field usually peaks at around 50% but this does not apply to the world.

the downside of the bell curve will obviously slope slowly downward as new technologies are implemented in response to price increase.

i'm not here to "troll"
you're claiming to be experts so get your info right

[oliver.rochford]

Furthermore, it is symmetrical, with the peak of production reached when half of the oil that will ultimately be produced has been. It also has a single peak

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_Oil

It is important to note that the point of maximum production (known as the Hubbert Peak) tends to coincide with the midpoint of depletion of the resource under consideration.

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/summary.htm

do i have to explain why this is not true

No, not really. Possibly because we know how it is meant, having read other books and articles on the subject.

But that wording is often used, not just on this site, but mainly because in slightly less technical (i.e. non oil gelogists) circles, peak is roughly equated to having used half of the accessible supply and that simplifcation suffices for illustrative purposes.

Reservegrowthrules can probably cite far many more examples of laymans terms and oversimiplifications, but as I said, we're not Oil people, so the simplification is fine as long as it doesn't imbalance the discussion.

ollie

[oliver.rochford]

for example today most oil wells are abondoned with a large percentage of oil still in the ground. You cannot predict what technologies will be here tomorrow to exploit that oil. (ex:oil sands)

Recoverable reserves are what count. And recoverable reserves are what are counted in regard to peaking imo.

you're claiming to be experts so get your info right

I don't recall anyone claimng to be an expert. In fact, I am sure Matt mentions that he is not a geologist/expert somewhere. And as I mentioned before, it suffices for demonstrative purposes.

We don't need to know the geological aspect in precise details.

Once again, we (or at least I) are not geologists.

However, you will find many cross-disciplines represented here.

[JurisDoctorOfDoom]

i'm not here to "troll"

you're claiming to be experts so get your info right

The only thing I've ever claimed to be an expert in is how to get through law school with a B- average while doing the minimum amount of work possible.

[Michelle in Ga]

Ol' Chippy took the words right out of my mouth.

[Petey_Canuck]

That's right, peak oil does not exist... Savinar is a loon, Petey Canuck is an Asshat, and this is actually a dating site.. So leave your address and boot size and carry on....

[Dennis from Oregon]

Normally we ask for a full intellectual qualifications list including proof of IQ, but its easy to figure out in this case...

This is not "our cause"...   Its a simple eventual reality..

[orchid]

Why on earth did you did you decide to participate in the discussion forums to post if you think the site is all b.s.?
 

[Leaf]

Why on earth did you did you decide to participate in the discussion forums to post if you think the site is all b.s.?

Really!
Weve all here have tried to De-Bunk Peak oil..Ive at first did the alerternatives will save us....well after 1st grade level studies that was de-bunked..Then I did the tar sands and oil wells route...Yeah that would save mankid if the human population was like 1 billion with the ave lifestyle a of person from Nepal.
Anyway I'm not here to defend if PO is true or not.I'm here to talk with like minded people who know whats comming down the pike share ideas have a little fun, smile and enjoy life while I can.
Change is coming whether we like it or not; whether we are prepared for it or not. If we don't begin right away to make better choices then we will face political, social, and economic disorders that will shake this nation to its foundation.J H Kunstler