World Oil Capacity to Peak in 2010 Says Petrobras CEO

[Ovis Suburbanus]

Was Lashay's post deleted? :|

Why?

I didn't dispute anything, just asked whether or not the most current info had been included?

 

I just checked and there was a whole nother sequence deleted where I tried to sort out someone's links to refuting a question somewhere else....I used real links and everything.....what did I do wrong cleaning up someone's links? It had nothing to do with peak oil?

Well, it's a simple matter to straighten us out on where you stand on the issue. Do you submit that Peak Oil is real? If so, do you agree that debating the timing of Peak Oil is not productive in our effort to get the message out that we should be preparing to deal with the problem?

If you do not accept that Peak Oil is real, then you probably won't enjoy your time much here because denying the reality of Peak Oil is not allowed or welcome here.

[Lashay]

Lashay, once the date of peak oil starts getting openly debated, it opens the floodgates for cornucopian trolls and spammers to argue that peak oil is a non-issue today. Let's not even go there, ok?

But....I didn't question ANYTHING. I just wanted to know if the analysis quoted by the original poster included the newest information? The original poster quoted an article which talked about a peak oil date, I was just wondering why it didn't appear to include the most current information....but the original post didn't get erased....MINE did.

[Lashay]

Well, it's a simple matter to straighten us out on where you stand on the issue. Do you submit that Peak Oil is real?

Sure. No problem with that one.

If so, do you agree that debating the timing of Peak Oil is not productive in our effort to get the message out that we should be preparing to deal with the problem?

Now thats a big question. It seems to me that knowing the timing is certainly important as far as putting a deadline on the amount of time we have to get ready, right? So that certainly would seem relevant to somebody, even if that discussion has to take place somewhere else ( transition town meetings, talk shows, other forums, etc etc )? As far as the message getting out, well, which message? Who's message? Which version of who's message?

[Brennus]

Good for you, Seahorse. Please don't let this forum become like peakoil.com. Please.

+1000
Couldn't agree more

[Seahorse]

Lashay, you're making it difficult when it's not.  We don't debate PO here, we come here to learn how to prepare our lives, learn, mitigate the effects of a world with finite resources, namely oil.  If you have something to offer in terms of financial advise that can help people, gardening, books, to help people prepare, please do.  If you have breaking news to share that would be in the interest of those here, please do.  But, we're not going to get into the debate of PO or its timing.  You can do that on any number of other forums. 

[Ovis Suburbanus]

Good for you, Seahorse. Please don't let this forum become like peakoil.com. Please.

+1000
Couldn't agree more

I quit PO.com because of the BS over there.

[Hogan]

Good for you, Seahorse. Please don't let this forum become like peakoil.com. Please.

+1000
Couldn't agree more

I quit PO.com because of the BS over there.

Yeah, me too. Most of the good posters did. This forum is sooo much better. Arguing peak oil reality with cornucopians and techno-fixers is a total waste of time and bandwidth. We are way beyond that. Now is the time to prepare. Keep up the good work, Seahorse!

[The Dude]

As regards the Orinoco, the size of that resource has been known for almost a century, and the technical means to extract it have been around since the 50s at the latest.  There is nothing exotic about it, it's comparable in quality to the oil in California.  Yet Venezuela's oil production has hit 2 major peaks, one in 1970 and one in 1998.  For 2008 they produced at 73.74% of that 1998 peak.  Their heavy oil won't be extracted in quantity without a serious price incentive to do so.

As for reserves growth itself, consider this from the EIA:

1. This graph shows the 2 percent production growth rate with the 3 USGS resource levels.

      2. Note that the timing of the estimated production peak is relatively insensitive to variations in the resource base estimate. For example, adding 900 billion barrels - more oil than the world has produced to date - to the mean resource estimate on the 2 percent growth path only delays the estimated production peak by 10 years. Similarly, subtracting 850 billion barrels from the mean resource estimate on the 2 percent growth path accelerates the estimated production peak by 11 years.

PPT Slide.  [/quote] 

Hubbert made the same point in one of his papers. 

As for peakoil.com I still post there, mostly since I don't see much utility in posting on a blog of mine that no one will read.  There are posters there with good info to contribute; I'd like to round them up and find a better venue, and just discuss the nuts and bolts of supply/demand.  This site wouldn't be the venue for that, as the idea that we are on the downside of peak oil is considered prima facie, and simple market dynamics could drag things out for a long time - that presentation I linked to also points out that simply curbing demand can extend the exploitation of a resource for a very long time, which can happen - this was the case in the 1980s as well, during the Carter admin many dire warnings of imminent world peak in the mid 90s were in the air, but this failed to materialize, obviously; the reasons for this were varied, and some of the same measures could be implemented now.

These aren't techno-fixes I have in mind, just simple measures such as moving away from using oil for electrical generation, which is still common in the developing world.  This is a seriously complex subject which still needs to be examined in detail.  Having said that, it does look like we will be out of spare capacity in a year or two, so get ready for triple digit crude prices once again. 

[metaforge]

Interesting graph.  In the expected case, we get to roughly 50gbbl/year, which amounts to 137mbbl/day.  I'd like some of what they're smokin' if they think we'll ever see that.   

[suburban_junkscape]

Another reason to have a mandatory questionaire or essay in order to post here. You must believe the following:

1. That peak oil is real and catastrophic.
2. That conventional production has already peaked or will peak before 2015.
3. That alternative energy will not save our ass.

If you don't believe those 3 there's no reason to bother posting on here.

[graveday]

So, posting anything contrary to whether Peak Oil is real and now is not allowed.

[/size]

Debating peak oil as a phenomena?  Against the rules.

Debating the timing of it, having to submit we're at or even past the peak right now?  Still very much up for debate, and I call Bullshit if that's against forum rules.

Yea, Im with you BlueOwl on the need to debate the timing of peak oil here.  To me that is one of the more important things to discuss on this forum, because it decides how imminent any collapse might be and how quickly people to be preparing for it.

Well, Seahorse seems to have just put the quietus to debating timing of peak oil, not just reality of peak oil.

So all those debates about fast crash, slow crash, that have gone on here forever, were against the rules?  Come on.  I am with Blue Owl here and call bullshit.  I think you are overboard here Seahorse, heavyhandedly overboard.

[Lashay]

Well, Seahorse seems to have just put the quietus to debating timing of peak oil, not just reality of peak oil.

So all those debates about fast crash, slow crash, that have gone on here forever, were against the rules?  Come on.  I am with Blue Owl here and call bullshit.  I think you are overboard here Seahorse, heavyhandedly overboard.

Certainly I am just going to keep my head down until I understand all this better.

[suburban_junkscape]

No, fast crash vs. slow crash is different. Like I believe oil production has already peaked but we'll only see it drop about 1% a year. It'll be a slow crash but we're in it and things aren't going to be getting better. They'll be much worse in 5 or 10 years. A fast crasher thinks production will fall 7% a year and it'll be lights out by 2015 or 2020.

Its reasonable to debate those views. In either case you need to prepare. In both cases you would want stored food, a garden, live in a safe place.

Its different than having someone come and say production won't peak until 2020 and by then we'll have working fusion plants and biodiesel from algae and cars running on natural gas and it won't be a big transition. That type of person should post somewhere else.

[graveday]

That kind of person would be like talking to a post.

[suburban_junkscape]

Yea, there's a couple of peak oil debunking sites. They can go and masturbate in those.