Oil Price Watch

[BlueOwl]

I believe they shut down due to storms, not cold weather.  18-25 oil rig workers died a few days ago due to 100 mph winds and 26 ft waves, apparently.

"MEXICO: STORM HITS OIL RIG, 18 DIE

(AGI) - Villahermosa (Mexico), 25 Oct. - A storm has hit an oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico and 18 workers who tried to leave it have drowned. Witnesses said that in only a few hours on the Pemex rig, the Mexican state-owned oil company, an incident worthy of a film on catastrophes occurred. On the Usumacinta there were 61 people who, when violent waves began to pull up the anchors, abandoned the rig using inflatable life rafts.
  However, the stormy sea reaped its victims in any case: 18 bodies have been found so far and 7 people are missing. The pipes burst and gas and crude oil leaked out of the KAB oil and gas field rig. According to Carlos Morales, the head of exploration and drilling for Pemex, it is the worst incident ever in the company's history. Eight helicopters and four motorboats are involved in the rescue operations, which have had to cope with 6-metre-high waves. The bad weather obliged the closing of three main embarkation ports for Mexican crude oil, paralysing export headed for the United States. However, Pemex has assured importers that delivery times will be respected.

[1234]

Just checked 90.30. I figured it would get back to that, just not this quick.

[Chip Haynes]

Yeah, it's been dropping steadily today. Short memories, I guess. We just bounce from panic to panic these days. Tomorrow it could jump four dollars.

It's got to be annoying if you're an investor.

[MiccyNarc]

Not surprising at all. 

[flash417]

Could just be me but it seems to be a pattern

Beginning of the week - settle 
Mid-week - dip 
end of the week - spike 
weekend - JUMP 

[GreenMonster12]

Well I actually had a conversation with a chevron station owner today; he said that 40% of their profit was absorbed by credit card fees. I can account for this since every time I buy gas it is usually on a credit card. 2$ in gas for the scooter minus a 50 cent fee for processing etc... last time I bought gas for the van it was $30 and paid via credit card.

[Alan NJ]

Well I actually had a conversation with a chevron station owner today; he said that 40% of their profit was absorbed by credit card fees. I can account for this since every time I buy gas it is usually on a credit card. 2$ in gas for the scooter minus a 50 cent fee for processing etc... last time I bought gas for the van it was $30 and paid via credit card.

I remember 20 years back when gas stations in my state tried having two prices per gallon.  A slightly higher price for credit to cover the fees, and a lower one for cash.  Looking back now I imagine that the credit card companies weren't very happy with some competition with their percent shaving racket.  I'm sure it was some clause in a weights and measures statue, etc, that said you couldn't charge differently based on method of payment.

[doghouse reilly]

Another report showing unexpected declines just came out. Oil is trading at $93.15. So much for the high $80s.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asuIMmgjP8ss&refer=home

[bkwillia]

  I just read the EIA weekly report: Cushing supplies (WTI distribution point) fell by a giant 3.1 million barrels!  Heress the inventory from the last 4 weeks ending this week:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/txt/wpsr.txt

 Cushing, Oklahoma                        18.6     18.4     18.2     15.1

Something has happened, leading to a 17% drop at Cushing, which is nearly all of the 3.9 million barrel decline.  I suspect that light sweet oil is now unavailable to the US import market as Asia and Europe are buying it all due to the weak dollar.  Unless these inventory numbers are wrong, we could see $100 oil this week. 

[suburban_junkscape]

Lots of interesting stuff coming out. The u.s. economy grew at 3.9% last quarter which is stunning. The oil report was bad but the refined product report was good. The net effect was still slightly negative. But throw in the Goldman Sachs opinion that oil has peaked for the year and we've likely hit a short term peak in price.

[fred-windsor]

Jumped up to 93.54$

[del2les]

"Anyone willing to bet that 600K shut in of Pemex is a beginning of the slowing oil exports by  producing nations ?  If so, see how fast things can spiral out of control without that hopeful months or years to prepare? $100 by TxDay?"
 

Hmmm.....So much for waiting till the New Year for $100.
Now, how long will it be before the MSM and the masses grasp the concept? I'm not waiting, for I am preparing like mad. When this thing really hits the "sleeping society", I will watch and sip another cup of coffee.
 
 

[1234]

Hit 94.00 earlier, wasn't expecting that either. down 3 up 3.

[stevelevine]

The Goldman report I think is a head's up for people to keep
their wits about them -- that we've got a speculative bubble, and
prices can go the other way too, down to $80 as Goldman suggests.

One thing that the report interestingly doesn't mention, and doesn't
seem to get much attention, is how we are living through the last
hurrah of Exxon's $10 billion quarters, and the high profits of the
rest of the oil majors. In the coming years, their place will be taken
by the state-owned oil companies.

What will happen to prices then?

In any case, I advertised my book on your site last week. Thanks
for the space.

Steve LeVine, author
The Oil and the Glory (Random House)
<a href="http://www.oilandglory.com">http://www.oilandglory.com</a>

[del2les]

While prices "may" swing, the overall trend is up and away for sometime. I've heard and read reports by "experts" for the past 5 years about oil price bubbles, and I am still waiting for that $20-30pb they promised was coming agian. Ha!

The key here is $80pb is considered a "drop" in oil prices. OK, so we drop to $80 and then go back up to what? 120? 150? etc. Swings are normal, but the track and trend is where it is at.