Oil Price Watch

[Chip Haynes]

That would be the "Reason that shall not be named".

Lord Oil Peak.

WHOOPS, I SAID IT!

 

[Chip Haynes]

Ok, so it looks as though oil is slowly settling back down. Bloomberg has it at $85.37 right now. I guess if all we're doing now is leaping from panic to panic, we might expect that easing of oil prices to continue until the next big thang, be it Turkey's invasion of Iraq or the latest on your favorite celeb.

Stay tuned, folks- it ain't over yet!

[BlueOwl]

Same thing as any other commodity, really.  Looks like a saw blade lying on a hill.  Small and constant ups and downs with an overall upward trend.

[Green Man]

Note that we have rolled over to the December contract, now.

I wouldn't be surprised to see WTI drop a little more, maybe $82 or $83. Remember, this is a weak time of the year for crude prices. Until refinery utilization is back over 90%, the demand for crude is weak. I don't think it will break below $80.

Really, I don't see crude prices running up again for supply reasons (as opposed to war reasons) until we see product prices jump, restoring a reasonable crack spread. That will encourage refiners to up their production and thus crude consumption. This might take another two or three weeks to develop.

I'm still expecting $95 before the end of the year.

Wildcard: another "warmest winter in history" like we had last year.
Wildcard: war.

[Chip Haynes]

Bloomberg has oil below $85.00 right now.

[45MPG]

Great!Oil coming down. I KNEW it! Think I'll stop at the Hummer dealership on the way home--there's a yellow H3 that is SICK--really ominous looking.

[suburban_junkscape]

This is good news. But it's kind of the ratcheting effect. You know, it goes up 10 dollars and backs off 5 and you think all is good. Just a few days ago someone started a separate thread because they were so stunned that oil was north of $85. Now that it is back down to $85 we are so stunned that it has gotten lower. I can see posts on this board a year from now: "Oil Prices Collapse, Oil Below $100!"

[MiccyNarc]

This is good news. But it's kind of the ratcheting effect. You know, it goes up 10 dollars and backs off 5 and you think all is good. Just a few days ago someone started a separate thread because they were so stunned that oil was north of $85. Now that it is back down to $85 we are so stunned that it has gotten lower. I can see posts on this board a year from now: "Oil Prices Collapse, Oil Below $100!"

If oil is anywhere close to the north side of $100 next year, I'll be thanking God for my cheap gas. 

[Chip Haynes]

The Turks seem to be moving in to Iraq this morning.

Look for oil to move this afternoon.

[ReznorHead]

CNBC just said a report was announced this morning showing a decline in oil production when they were expecting an increase. Prices went down yesterday because of the expected increase in production. Look for oil to keep climbing today.

[Chip Haynes]

Oil jumped over a dollar just in the last few minutes- now up over $86.00.

Let the games begin.

[Al Czervik]

CNBC just said a report was announced this morning showing a decline in oil production when they were expecting an increase. Prices went down yesterday because of the expected increase in production. Look for oil to keep climbing today.

It was pretty brutal.  A couple of the PO.com guys do a great job monitoring this.  The estimates were like between 300K and a million increase in oil and 475 K to a million increase in gasoline.  Instead, you got a 5.3 million drip in crude and a 2 million drop in gasoline.
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic28807-795.html

[bkwillia]

Here's that article.  This is the worst week in a long time.  Oil, gas and distillates all fell, for a total drop of 9.1 million barrels.  It is also notable that Cushing oil stocks fell by 200 000 bbls, which is bullish for West Texas crude. 

Oil surges after surprise inventory drop
Inventory report shows unexpected decline in crude, gasoline, and distillate supplies.
October 24 2007: 10:41 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices rallied Wednesday after a government report showed an unexpected drop in inventories.

U.S. light crude for December delivery jumped $1.58 to $86.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil had traded down 22 cents to $85.05 just prior to the report's release.

In its weekly inventory report, the Energy Information Administration said crude stocks plunged by 5.3 million barrels last week. Analysts were looking for an increase of 300,000 barrels, according to a Dow Jones poll.

Gasoline supplies fell by 2 million barrels while distillates, used to make heating oil and diesel fuel, slipped by 1.8 million barrels. Analysts were expected gasoline stockpiles to grow by 1.1 million and distillates to rise by 200,000.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/24/markets/oil_eia/index.htm?postversion=2007102410

[Chip Haynes]

This bad news appears to be jump-starting a fast rise in oil prices this morning. By the time investors stop to catch their breath, they'll see the Turks are in Iraq, and off they go again.

Should be a wild ride to Friday.

Will we see $90 by then?

Stay tuned!

[DuckHunter]

What I really want to know is who the hell are these asshats who every week seem to be "surprised" by sudden drops in U.S. crude inventories...if they worked for me, I'd fire them for gross incompetency.