Oil Price Watch

[Bruce]

As of 3:16 PM eastern      86.19.   Damnit man it's coming. Surely we will have lows and highs but non the less IT IS COMING................................................................... Bruce

[Michelle]

Yup. I think I need more rice and beans.

[Chip Haynes]

I think it's just creepy how the price of gasoline is not rising at all.

I don't like that one bit.

 

[feelingweird]

I wrote almost 4 weeks ago that Gasoline would baffle everyone until about Thanksgiving(maybe a few weeks sooner).

Reason:

When they destroyed the dollar about 4 weeks ago(Bernanke dropped the overnight lending window by .5%) it meant that NEWLY aquired oil would cost about 10% more to make up for the devalued dollar. This would be felt immediately, because IT'S AN IMPORT.

The importers are now asking for 10% more dollars for a barrel of oil. On the other hand, we have about a 2 to 3 month supply of oil IN COUNTRY that was purchased with stronger dollars(before the devaluation), this has to work it's way out of the system.

I know it's fashionable to think the oil companies just snap their fingers and oil and gas prices change to their whim, but it doesn't work that way. Once the old oil is worked out of the system, you'll see STEEP gasoline price increases.

On the NYMEX just today there was at least a 12 or 13 cent price move. So you'll start to see the first glimpes of this within 2 to 4 days, depending on where you live. Where I'm at gas is costing about 2.80 a gallon, so I can expect close to 3.00 bucks by mid to end of week.

Add to this monetary increase, you're also seeing distress caused by Turkey and their planned invasion of Northern Iraq

By Thanksgiving if oil is still selling in the mid to high 80's we'll be seeing averages from 3.40 to as high as 4.00 a gallon by thanksgiving. Again, depending on where you live...

Robert (merry christmas my ass)

[Lowblow]

I think it's just creepy how the price of gasoline is not rising at all.

I don't like that one bit.

 

Oil and Gasoline play Leapfrog with a 2-3 week delay, watch the pumps people and time will show us the truth.  Also factor in that oil companies know they will be the major focus of a price jump, and be scolded for gouging. So why not raise prices with coinciding natural or man-made disaster? (BP, Citgo, Shell pray to God of Disaster)  Because the "Peak Oil" view is wrong.

We must not show them the Wizard behind the curtain!

[Chip Haynes]

Yeah, I figured there had to be a delayed effect on the price of gas, but when it happens I expect the price to go a little nuts. Maybe more than a little nuts. (And I'm not even going to make a "little nuts" joke here.) Will we see $3.50 gas in time for the holiday shopping season? That should be a real flaming bag on the retailers' front porch.

[dscottjst]

$86.13 - must be a record.  See NY Times Markets:  http://marketwatch.nytimes.com/custom/nyt-com/html-currencies.asp

[Chip Haynes]

It's after 4 here on the US east coast, so I'm guessing that was the closing price.

A new record.

Go team.

[suburban_junkscape]

Right now the market is flooded with gasoline due to seasonally low demand and a flood of imports. The refinery margin is now near a record low 6%. Just wait though until the spring-summer driving season. $100 roughly equals over $4 gas during driving season with the reformulated gas.

btw the number one story on msnbc.com last night was that oil companies will be taking a big profit hit due to the low refining margin. This isn't expected to continue for much longer though. It is just a fluke where oil is expensive and gasoline cheap.

[Bionic_Oil_Gut]

I think it's just creepy how the price of gasoline is not rising at all.

I don't like that one bit.

 

Spot on Chip, and the media coverage is appauling, we have a federal election on here at the moment, not a whisper.

[Ovis Suburbanus]

Don't look now but my barometer gas station here in N. Texas went up 10 cents today from $2.59 to $2.69.

I think the per barrel oil prices we're seeing lately will start to begin seeping into the price of gas right about today and tomorrow. The next couple of weeks should shock the shit out of people.

[fishsurfer]

Hmmm. So how are our reserves?  JK.  There not doing so hot either.  It is absolutley crazy that not one news agency is even talking about this spike other than drudge and a 1 minute snippet on the evening news.  Wait untill the Northeast starts running out of heating oil this season, along with the water in the south.

[Ponzu]

Are we witnessing the hitting of the shit? 

[BlueOwl]

From the Energy Bulletin:

"Will a New Phenomenon, The ‘ASPO Effect,’ Send Oil Prices Higher This Week?
Energy Tech Stocks
Starting Wednesday the U.S. branch of a global group of oil experts who believe the world is at or very near “peak oil” production will hold a four-day meeting that could unleash an important new phenomenon impacting the price of oil.

Call it the “ASPO Effect,” after the group that will be holding the meeting, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, commonly known as ASPO.

Conditions appear ripe for the ASPO Effect to send oil prices higher later this week. Organizers say registration for the meeting, which will take place in Houston, is running well ahead of last year. A number of speakers, including T. Boone Pickens, Matthew Simmons and Charley Maxwell of Weeden & Co., are likely to attract a lot of media attention which, in turn, is likely to influence the growing number of speculators and other purely financial players who have started buying and selling oil futures contracts and who are always on the lookout for a reason to send prices up or down in order to benefit from market volatility.

Peak oil is the perfect reason to send prices higher.

According to ASPO-USA, peak oil experts don’t claim that the world is running out of oil but, rather, that the world is running out of cheap oil as production decreases and demand increases.

...To be sure, the ASPO Effect, if one develops, could turn out to be short-lived, what with other potential market movers such as political tension with Iran and a late season hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Still, the lasting impact of this week’s ASPO-USA meeting likely will be to further cement in traders’ minds that oil prices are more likely to go up than down in coming weeks and months as supply-demand fundamentals continue to worsen."

We shall see what happens on Wednesday, I guess. $90?

[suburban_junkscape]

If you're just waking up...just letting you know that oil briefly got near $88 overnight. Looks like it'll be another record day on the NYMEX.