Oil Price Watch

[lady-t]

http://www.att.net/s/editorial.dll?pnum=1&bfromind=2670&eeid=5687564&_sitecat=1462&dcatid=0&eetype=article&render=y&ac=-2&ck=&ch=mo

cheers

[OzCynic]

If oil has quadrupled in the past 8 years then hands up who believes it will do the same again? $400 per barrel may be the norm.

Bionic Oil gut, if you realise that the East Asian meltdown caused Oil to briefly touch US$5.65 per barrel before "settling" at around the US$9 mark, in 1998~early 1999.

So, in a period of less than 10 years, the Oil price has gone up over 11 times.

Now, there will be those who point out that such things are never linear - and they aren't - but if one takes a straight linear forward projection, we';re going to be seeing Oil at US$1100 per barrel in less than 10 years.

It is noted that we won't be seeing any linear forward results for Oil prices, though, but it does show how much Oil can change in a relatively short time-span

[vaporiser]

If oil has quadrupled in the past 8 years then hands up who believes it will do the same again? $400 per barrel may be the norm.

Bionic Oil gut, if you realise that the East Asian meltdown caused Oil to briefly touch US$5.65 per barrel before "settling" at around the US$9 mark, in 1998~early 1999.

So, in a period of less than 10 years, the Oil price has gone up over 11 times.

Now, there will be those who point out that such things are never linear - and they aren't - but if one takes a straight linear forward projection, we';re going to be seeing Oil at US$1100 per barrel in less than 10 years.

It is noted that we won't be seeing any linear forward results for Oil prices, though, but it does show how much Oil can change in a relatively short time-span

linear extrapolation again.

now look at the oil price graph.

does the rise look more like its linear or exponential?

now do that calculation again.

[Bruce]

at 12:12 am est on 032108 it's 99.83......................................Bruce

[OzCynic]

Now, there will be those who point out that such things are never linear - and they aren't - but if one takes a straight linear forward projection, we';re going to be seeing Oil at US$1100 per barrel in less than 10 years.

It is noted that we won't be seeing any linear forward results for Oil prices, though, but it does show how much Oil can change in a relatively short time-span

linear extrapolation again.[/.quote]

Complete inattention again.

now look at the oil price graph.

Now look at what I wrote:

such things are never linear - and they aren't

does the rise look more like its linear or exponential?

It looks like you didn't read what I wrote. Stop skimming and start reading.

now do that calculation again.

I said in my original post that the results were NEVER linear. I've even quoted myself above, saying exactly that. How much more plain can I make it? I was using the way that Oil has risen about 11 times (or 1100%) in less than 10 years to make the point (which you spectacularly missed) that Oil can rise an awful lot in an awfully short time. Given that we've had Oil since (about) 1860 or thereabout depending upon which account you look at, and given that the rise to unprecedented levels only happened in the last few years, "linear" analysis is showing the end of the flat trend of the Oil Price and showing it's rising trend marking the end of Oil. Why, so are most OTHER types of analysis!

We will see reversals of that rise in the medium term, in all likelihood. We may even see as dramatic a drop in the Oil Price as we did in the 1997~1998 East Asian Meltdown, where the Oil Price dropped over 60%, to well below "fundamental" levels, that is below the actual price of extraction & transportation. This will be especially true if the US drops into deep recession (which won't change one tiny drop the amount of Oil used on the planet). But the "linear" result is that we'll see the Oil Price go way back UP again!

My calculation is that most people do not read postings at these types of boards at all, they pick out one or two words and then dismiss the post and person.

[vaporiser]

if you know its wrong, why are you doing the calculation?
you create false information thereby.

[Bionic_Oil_Gut]

Guys I love you all, and I hope you know that, linear-exponential whatever, I still have no fricken idea about WTF your talking about but I’m hangin in there. So all I can tell thus far is that modern society is getting hit for a home run back to the dark ages!

[vaporiser]

Guys I love you all, and I hope you know that, linear-exponential whatever, I still have no fricken idea about WTF your talking about but I’m hangin in there. So all I can tell thus far is that modern society is getting hit for a home run back to the dark ages!

peace brothers.
bionic oil gut is still posting!
oil prices are still rising. 
and the fcking office work is still boring.   

[Chip Haynes]

Just as 60 is the new 40 if you're an aging baby boomer, 100 is the new 80 if your watching the price of oil.

 

[Flash Point]

My calculation is that most people do not read postings at these types of boards at all, they pick out one or two words and then dismiss the post and person.

Having watched this and other boards over the years, I tend to agree. There are those very informed and intelligent members, and then there are those who blindly miss or dismiss outright and even make personal attacks. However, the facts still remain. Actually, over the years, I have seen this same attitude among more and more of our college students also, and the past few decades have revealed to me a stark downturn in logical and rational thought.

[Bruce]

Guys I love you all, and I hope you know that, linear-exponential whatever, I still have no fricken idea about WTF your talking about but I’m hangin in there. So all I can tell thus far is that modern society is getting hit for a home run back to the dark ages!

BOG you and I are in the same boat. Many times I start reading a post or thread and have no idea WTF they are talking about. I just bow out gracefully and try not to show my ignorance. The acronyms used in economy post are the toughest. My expression is like  HUH?
 But, we don't have to be a brain scientist, common sense will lead the way.........................Bruce

[45MPG]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080222/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices

See, everyone, there's PLENTY of oil and $100 was unrealistic. Things are great, let's go back to the car dealerships.
What in the world are these people thinking? Or, rather, who are they trying to fool? It's only going to get worse-let's face reality...


http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080222/bs_nm/bp_alaska_prudhoe_dc;_ylt=At4xg6VnQEnY4xKrrlFytiRv24cA

[Chip Haynes]

45- I'm chalking that article up to wishful thinking.

Either that, or he's on something.

Maybe both.

[Sammi]

Guys I love you all, and I hope you know that, linear-exponential whatever, I still have no fricken idea about WTF your talking about but I’m hangin in there. So all I can tell thus far is that modern society is getting hit for a home run back to the dark ages!

Have you ever heard the story about the guy who invented chess? Basically, he's given any reward that he wishes, so he states that he wants rice measured out according to the chessboard--one grain on the first square, two on the second square, four on the third square, eight on the fourth, sixteen on the fifth, etc? That's the exponential function.

Linear would be like one on the first square, two on the second, three on the third, etc. or two on the first, four on the second, six on the third, etc.

[Chip Haynes]

"Have you ever heard the story about the guy who invented chess?"

As I recall, the king found it easier to simply have him killed.