Oil Price Watch

[OzCynic]

Down to $91.36, once the big recess hits we should see it hover around $80 especially if GW's missionary position with the Saudi’s pays off.

The Oil price dropped from (about) US$22 to US$9 because of the East Asian meltdown in 1997:

http://strata.geol.sc.edu/petroleum/Chronology%20of%20World%20Oil%20Market%20Events%201970%20-%202000.htm


The thing is, this price plummet was without one SINGLE DROP OF OIL less in  demand for the stuff.

The stupid traders realised their problems only later, when somebody discovered some "missing barrels" of Oil, and that's when the price started to rise again in 1999 and beyond. This is not a coincidence with North Sea Crude production peaking - and Cantarell peaking in production at exactly the same time.

The Oil Price went down due to a PERCEPTION that there would be demand destruction. The market guessed  - and guessed wrong.

I expect to see the oil price drop mightily (US$70, anyone?) then stop, reverse direction, skyrocket, run out of steam, plummet, stop, reverse direction, skyrocket, plummet, and these wild fluctuations will eventually shatter all credibility (well, the tiny bit that would be left) in the Free Market after the Big Crash we're going to see shortly.


(I'll get those tags right YET!)

[Chip Haynes]

Oil's below $90 right now. It will be interesting to see how low it goes- and how high it gets slung back up when the time comes.

[fishsurfer]

Oil's below $90 right now. It will be interesting to see how low it goes- and how high it gets slung back up when the time comes.

I was thinking about that today.  Is there a place for oil to flatline for a period of time at this point.  Obviously the markets reacting to a bunch of stuff, I just dont see the traders able to stay down for long, i dont think oil is going to be like that any longer.

[Bionic_Oil_Gut]

Their doing the runner to precious metals and other goodies, they hunt like packs of dogs making money from thin air. Scum.

[lady-t]

89.92

[fishsurfer]

Their doing the runner to precious metals and other goodies, they hunt like packs of dogs making money from thin air. Scum.

Thats what I thought, but it seems of recent Gold has gone downwards, so has silver and copper.  Where are they hiding at these days then?  Are they hiding?  Are they retreating? 

[fishsurfer]

Rising up to $91 again this morning.

[Bionic_Oil_Gut]

Their doing the runner to precious metals and other goodies, they hunt like packs of dogs making money from thin air. Scum.

Thats what I thought, but it seems of recent Gold has gone downwards, so has silver and copper.  Where are they hiding at these days then?  Are they hiding?  Are they retreating? 

If I knew that fisho I can assure you I would be sitting on the back right now on my 80ft cruiser sipping a martini with a fishing rod!

[fred-windsor]

Their doing the runner to precious metals and other goodies, they hunt like packs of dogs making money from thin air. Scum.

Thats what I thought, but it seems of recent Gold has gone downwards, so has silver and copper.  Where are they hiding at these days then?  Are they hiding?  Are they retreating? 

If I knew that fisho I can assure you I would be sitting on the back right now on my 80ft cruiser sipping a martini with a fishing rod!

Make sure the front dont fall off!

http://www.peakoilstore.com/forum/index.php/topic,11102.0.html

[Bionic_Oil_Gut]

How funny was that Fred, those guys are nucking futs!

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/clarkedawe.htm

[Uncle Fester]

How funny was that Fred, those guys are nucking futs!

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/clarkedawe.htm

Definitely a side-splitter!

[OzCynic]

Oil's at US$87.61, and it'll hover there until the NEXT load of Bad News when it'll drop a bit again.

Don't forget, 3 weeks ago, it was bumping past US$100 per barrel, with the next stop of US$105 looking like it was locked in.

The truth is, that without the SLIGHTEST increase in supply, without the SLIGHTEST drop in demand (in deed, possibly a rise in demand) Oil has dropped around US$13 per barrel. I see it dropping about the same again (ie: to US$74 per barrel) and watch the CERA idiots crawl out of the woodwork.

THEN, the Oil Demand and Supply figures will come out...and panic buying of Oil stocks will happen.

Mind you, China must be quietly buying the stuff up right now and they will have the Best and the Cheapest!

[Chip Haynes]

Looks like oil has finally managed to claw its way back up above $90 again, and starts the day at $90.14.

[unrepentantcowboy]

I think the people expecting oil prices to crash in the near future are probably wrong. Last year the oil drum linked to an article by a former Saudi minister of energy. The guy said $70 was the rock bottom value last year (latter part of '07) and that the bottom would go up around $12/year putting it at $82 now. Upward limits could vary greatly according to geopolitical and natural events, but barring some unforseen event, I don't think oil will go below that $82 figure.

$2,500 cars in India, 15% growth in China and American kids wanting to go to the beach for spring break virtually ensure the demand for oil will continue to grow.

Not to mention that oil producing countries have additional revenue their citizens will use to buy cars and buy gasoline with, further diminishing the supply of exportable oil.

[Chip Haynes]

I wonder if there might be a way to calculate the future of oil prices by assuming that the price has to rise as fast as the population plus depletion combined? (A 5% rise in population plus a 5% drop in oil supply= a 10% rise in oil prices, for instance?)

Seems too low.