Oil Price Watch

[Chip Haynes]

That report comes out around 2 p.m every Wednesday, does it not?

[Al Czervik]

The crude drawdown we have all expected for a month finally kicked in big time.

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending November 30, 2007

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 15.5 million barrels per day
during the week ending November 30, down 20,000 barrels per day from the
previous week's average. Refineries operated at 89.4 percent of their operable
capacity last week. Gasoline production moved higher compared to the previous
week, averaging nearly 9.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production
rose last week, averaging 4.3 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged nearly 9.4 million barrels per day last week,
down 980,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks,
crude oil imports have averaged 10.0 million barrels per day, or 121 thousand
barrels per day more than averaged over the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline
blending components) last week averaged nearly 1.2 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel imports averaged 299,000 barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) dropped by 8.0 million barrels compared to the previous week.
At 305.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of
the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories
increased by 4.0 million barrels last week, and are below the lower end of the
average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and gasoline blending
components inventories increased during this period. Distillate fuel inventories
increased by 1.4 million barrels, but are in the middle of the average range for
this time of year. propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.5 million
barrels last week. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 3.8
million barrels last week, and are in the upper middle of the average range for
this time of year.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 20.9 million
barrels per day, up by 1.2 percent compared to the similar period last year.
Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly 9.3 million
barrels per day, or 0.2 percent above the same period last year. Distillate
fuel demand has averaged 4.4 million barrels per day over the last four weeks,
up 5.9 percent compared to the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 2.0
percent higher over the last four weeks compa

[Chip Haynes]

Excellent post, Al, but if that report was supposed to be bad news for the price of oil, it hasn't seemed to shake up the market as you'd think a bad report might. Maybe it takes time for this stuff to sink in?

Does it take time for the numbers to be deciphered by the market?

[45MPG]

Wake up, everyone...oil is up $3.00 on the day...

[Chip Haynes]

Hey, I just saw that- it's up to just over $90.00 right now.

[lady-t]

here we go again.. okay when we get to the top everyone throw their hands up and scream and hopefully it will dip down again.

....rollercoaster humor....

[Chip Haynes]

I can see my house from heeeeerrrrrrreeeeee!!!!!!!!!!

Oil starts the day at a nice, even $90.00

Please keep your arms and hands inside the car while the vehicle is in motion.

And no flash photography, please.

 

[bkwillia]

http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/07/markets/oil.ap/index.htm?postversion=2007120713

LOL

The Labor Department report "wasn't a blockbuster number that would keep feeding the oil bull," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp., in Chicago.

The report showed employers added 94,000 jobs to their payrolls in November following October's 170,000. The data quashed the hopes of some oil investors that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a half percent instead of the more widely expected quarter percent when it meets Tuesday, Flynn said.

Interest rate cuts tend to weaken the dollar against other currencies. Oil futures offer a hedge against a weak dollar, and oil futures bought and sold in dollars are more attractive to foreign investors when the greenback is falling.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery fell $2.30 to $87.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after rising $2.74 on Thursday.

Some analysts think volatility is becoming a central feature of a market whose sentiment seems to be changing from bullish to bearish. Several analysts said it was difficult to find reasons to explain Thursday's price run-up, or Friday's declines.

There is so much uncertainty, that rising jobs is getting confused with the rising US dollar is getting confused with rising demand.  Nobody seems to know where oil is going short or long term, even the LATOC forum is not giving a firm price prediction.

[zentao]

Alien vs. Predator...No matter who wins, we still lose...

Will it be the super-high price per barrel or enormous cascading recession? 

[del2les]

Alien vs. Predator...No matter who wins, we still lose...

Will it be the super-high price per barrel or enormous cascading recession? 

LOL......I think that says it all, but I would change recession to depression.

[BlueOwl]

I've been waiting to see the "D" word in print.  All the various news articles, even the doomiest as found on the LATOC News Page, use recession instead.

[45MPG]

$92.09 up $2.07...I wish it would make up it's mind! I read earlier where someone said that the $100.00 mark was a mistake and oil should be 65-85 until about 2015. Can't find that link now...

[Chip Haynes]

Here's the link for the forum thread on that article:

http://www.peakoilstore.com/forum/index.php/topic,9767.0.html

Never heard of the guy myself, but that doesn't mean much.

Oil's been crawling haltingly above 90 this week. Is this the beginning of it's climb to $100 by the 22nd?

We shall see.

By the way- oil's above $93.00 right now.

[earl]

93.85!  I was surprised to see those numbers.  Isn't that a pretty hefty gain for one day?

[Chip Haynes]

Yeah, it seems to be picking up some steam. I may have to drop Matt Drudge a note and tell him to keep an eye on it. This Friday will be one week until the usual bid cutoff on the 21st. I figure next week will see the real gains.

But will se see $100???