Oil Price Watch

[bkwillia]

Crude down 1.1 million barrlers

Gasoline up 0.2 million

Distillates down 2.4 million

Cushing inventory rose 1.2 million bbls to 14.6 mmbbls.

Refineries are not keeping up with demand for heating oil, and are not building stocks of gasoline for next spring.  They waiting for something... maybe for a decent crack spread so they can make a profit off processing $97 oil.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) dropped by 1.1 million barrels compared to the previous week.
At 313.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of
the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories
increased by 0.2 million barrels last week, and are below the lower end of the
average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and gasoline blending
components rose slightly during this period. Distillate fuel inventories
decreased by 2.4 million barrels, but are in the middle of the average
range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories declined 0.4 million
barrels last week. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 6.9
million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the average range for
this time of year.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.8
million barrels per day, up by 0.2 percent compared to the similar period last
year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.3 million
barrels per day, or 0.3 percent above the same period last year.  Distillate
fuel demand has averaged nearly 4.4 million barrels per day over the last four
weeks, up 3.2 percent compared to the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is
3.9 percent higher over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week
period last year.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/txt/wpsr.txt

[del2les]

At this point, it doesn't look like oil will hit the 100, but at the 99.29 high, I got close to my prediction of TxDay instead of after the New Year as many stated. My research has always led me to believe the PO crisis would be faster and harsher than many thought, and yet, nothing has proven to me this thought process is wrong. I hoped I would be wrong, but everythig keeps escalating me to the scarier side of the cliff. When the cork finally pops on the Post Peak OIL (PPO) society, I think it will be more than most were prepared for.

There still is time for 100 by days end tomorrow, but either way, being right isn't always a good thing.

Happy Thanksgiving to all you PO's out there. Enjoy it while we can

[BlueOwl]

The Bloomberg.com main page and LATOC's Breaking News Page look very similar today.

[Chip Haynes]

"My research has always led me to believe the PO crisis would be faster and harsher than many thought..."

I do believe that the longer it holds off, the worse it will be.

And it is not looking good right now.



Oil, by the way, is climbing back up after that mid-day slump: $97.87 right now.

[del2les]

@Chip

Yea, I agree. Instead of letting the pressure off slower via keeping gas prices higher and funding more aggressive societal changes, we destined ourselves to a more rapid decline and stronger shock. Its the psychology of "get it while you can" that leads to increased consumption instead of rationing our food to survive longer while we create the ark. Or better yet, it is the "market society" where putting a limit on anything makes it go faster... Limit 2 today only.....And we must get it before it is gone. DUH' We just made it gone that much sooner.....LOL

We deserve what we have coming I guess.....

Happy TxDay to all

[Chip Haynes]

I do get the biggest kick out people saying that "technology will save us". Disregarding the obvious, that technology is not energy, wasn't it technology that got us in the mess to begin with? Wasn't it all the advanced drilling and extraction technology that has allowed us to turn Hubbert's Curve into Hubbert's CLIFF? With all that we have done to pump out as much oil as fast as possible, we are going to hear one monstorously grotesque slupring noise when the wells start to run dry. As oil production goes in to that hideous nose dive, we're going to see the price of oil climb like a bottle rocket.

Right before the both disappear.

  

[fishsurfer]

The Bloomberg.com main page and LATOC's Breaking News Page look very similar today.

I noticed that too.  Even CNBC is like Doomer Central today.  Of course, I listened to Rush spend an hour defending the markets and pulling the everything is fine dont let the liberals freak you out.  We always come through, were AMERICA!  That conversation by the way was started by some possible PO aware guys that called in a propositioned him on all the consequences of whats happened that last few months.  His defense was no defense.  EVerythings great, you guys out there are just being taken advantage of by liberals.  Wow, my country is freakin retarded. 

[Chip Haynes]

I can see Rush's point: It's fun to blame the liberals, and it's not like they're gonna hunt you down and slap you for it. Still, it wasn't the liberals that got us into this mess, any more than it was the neocons, retro-goths or left-handed basketball players. It was all of us. Even Rush. There's plenty of blame to go around.

And more arriving every day. 

[unrepentantcowboy]

$98.75

[heretic]

I noticed that too.  Even CNBC is like Doomer Central today.  Of course, I listened to Rush spend an hour defending the markets and pulling the everything is fine dont let the liberals freak you out.  We always come through, were AMERICA!  That conversation by the way was started by some possible PO aware guys that called in a propositioned him on all the consequences of whats happened that last few months.  His defense was no defense.  EVerythings great, you guys out there are just being taken advantage of by liberals.

thats no surprise, he blames EVERYTHING on liberals (deserved or not) why would oil decline be any different.  Let me guess it went something like this.

"Now folks, if those tree huggers would let oil companies drill in ANWAR oil would cost $25 a barrel."

Wow, my country is freakin retarded.

Certainly the citizens who listen to that retarded show are.  Last thing I want would be for those jerkoffs to be the most prepared.  Skim those turds out of the gene pool.

[Chip Haynes]

"Now folks, if those tree huggers would let oil companies drill in ANWAR oil would cost $25 a barrel."

   Was that an actual quote from Limbaugh? Let's see: It would take about ten years to go into the ANWR and explore, drill, and start pumping oil. In those ten years, the depletion curve in the rest of the US, not to mention the world, will far outstrip any additional supply the ANWR might be able to off, so no, the ANWR will not be able to lower oil prices. I seriously doubt if it will have any impact at all. And that's if we bother with it at all.

Anyone that takes Rush Limbaugh seriously gets what they deserve.

 

[45MPG]

Ditto. 

[Puchica]

pennsylvania dutch proverb from the anthracite coal region.

"The longer it goes on, the worse it will be'   
Someone said that in English earlier on this board.  The old timers are saying it in Dutch a lot.  The mountain folk aren't fooled by what's going on.  They never believed in the fast paced modern world in the first place.  But somebody ought to start a Peak Coal watch.  It's nice heat if you can get it.  Right now, it's hard to get at any price. We thought we were set up here, with our coal and gardens and hunting.  If the first of our assumptions is proved wrong this early, we better go back and look at the others!

[Chip Haynes]

"The longer it goes on, the worse it will be."    

   That can be taken two ways, both equally accurate: The longer modern society goes on expanding, using cheap energy, it will continually evolve into something worse than it was: More cars, more roads, more debt, more need for energy, more bad things. In addition to that, the longer it goes on, the worse the oil crash will be when the energy runs out.

Oh, bother.

[Chip Haynes]

By the way- Oil is starting it's usual afternoon march, up to $97.80 right now, with 3 1/2 hours to go before the US market closes.

How high will it fly??