Oil Price Watch

[Chip Haynes]

All it's going to take is one small bit of geopolitical mischief to push the price into triple digits.

And that stage has been both quiet and dark for far too long.

[jock]

OPEC bites back, apparently it is all Americas fault that they cannot pump any more

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/11/14/bcnopec114.xml

[Scarab]

OPEC bites back, apparently it is all Americas fault that they cannot pump any more

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/11/14/bcnopec114.xml

Touché!... Some nice swipes in that one. Might merit its own thread.

[del2les]

Almost back to $94pb. I'm still holding to my prediction of $100 by TxDay. The turkey will roast

[Chip Haynes]

Ah, yes, it's all our fault for not building more refineries. Curse our negligence! (Or at least our negligees.)   

So are we really running all of our refineries in the US flat out right now?

News to me.

By the way, oil just struggled back up above $94.00.

[del2les]

Hey, hey.....$94.07.  So much for the "bubble has bursted" crowd. Gotta' laugh everytime I keep hearing that one.

[Chip Haynes]

I suspect there wold have been dancing in the streets (or at least a party at the Hummer dealership) had oil dipped below $90 this week- but that didn't happen.

And it's not likely to any time soon.

[bkwillia]

http://www.peakoil.com/modules.php?name=Forums&file=viewtopic&t=33804

This is an interesting thread about tanker traffic shipping OPEC oil to the west.  I cannot find links to the original articles, but here is a copy from the forum.

11/8/07 Oster Dow Jones 16:30:01
Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
November 8, 2007

DJ OPEC Shipments In 4 Wks To Nov 24 Seen +0.05M B/D-Tracker

LONDON, Nov 08, 2007 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- Tight winter oil supplies are seen ahead as not enough crude is being moved to help build up stockpiles with OPEC shipments set to rise by a paltry 50,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Nov. 24 from the previous one-month period, U.K. tanker tracker Oil Movements said Thursday.

Shipments by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries are seen rising to a total of 24.28 million barrels a day, compared with 24.23 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Oct. 27, said Roy Mason, head of the consultancy.

That is 470,000 barrels a day less than at this time last year, according to Oil Movements' data.

"It means there will be no offshore stockpiles for the winter," said Mason.

"We would normally see at this point a build in oil in transit as long-haul sailings gear up for the winter, and that's not happening," Mason explained. "This year, there's nothing."

"It means that in November, there are no extra OPEC barrels," he said.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

11-08-07 1130ET 

I don't know how accurate this Mason guy is, but his data screams $100 oil.  Last year US crude stocks dropped about 0.75 mm bbl/day during November as refineries ramped up heating oil production.  Now we have an additional 0.5 mm bbl/day import deficit.  Considering last week's report was essentially flat for total stocks, it's entirely possible we could see a 10 mmbbl/day drop in tomorrow's report.  This doesn't even account for Mexico's lost production either, which has not yet shown its effects in our imports.

Before it was stimulating and interesting learning about peak oil.  Now its getting scary and depressing.  I keep racking my brain trying to figure out how and at what price oil might stabilize.  I am afraid traders will pass $100 and just keep moving like it ain't no thing.  We all know $100 is worth less every day. 

Once peak oil is a main stream concept, accepted or not, refiners will attempt to build stocks, and governments will be pressured to fill reserves in preparation.  Just like gasoline hording, only with crude oil.  At some point there will be no oil available on the spot market from the Cushing oil terminal.  In April this year, there were almost 28 million barrels of WTI crude in storage.  Now we have less than 13, and price backwardation has been driving inventory lower at a frightening pace in the past 2 weeks.  We could see a stop trading before spring to protect the market from price gouging.  So I guess my conclusion is oil wont stabilize, it will just be nationalized and rationed.

[fishsurfer]

So the tankers are not moving now.  Freakin great.  Im sure they just stopped for some R+R in the azores. 

[Klopdx]

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices fell Thursday after government said supplies of crude oil rose far more than expected.

U.S. light crude for January delivery fell 97 cents to $92.36 a barrel. Oil had traded down 53 cents just prior to the report's release.

In its weekly inventory report, the Energy Information Administration said crude stocks rose by 2.8 million barrels last week. Analysts were looking for a drop of 300,000 barrels, according to a Dow Jones poll.

Gasoline supplies also showed a surprise gain, rising by 700,000 barrels compared to the 100,000 drop predicted.

But distillates, used to make heating oil and diesel fuel, declined by 2 million barrels. Analysts were looking for a drop of just 300,000 barrels.

Oil prices made a run at $100 a barrel last week but never topped the triple digit threshold, peaking at $98.62 on Nov. 7.

[unrepentantcowboy]

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices fell Thursday after government said supplies of crude oil rose far more than expected.

U.S. light crude for January delivery fell 97 cents to $92.36 a barrel. Oil had traded down 53 cents just prior to the report's release.

In its weekly inventory report, the Energy Information Administration said crude stocks rose by 2.8 million barrels last week. Analysts were looking for a drop of 300,000 barrels, according to a Dow Jones poll.

Gasoline supplies also showed a surprise gain, rising by 700,000 barrels compared to the 100,000 drop predicted.

But distillates, used to make heating oil and diesel fuel, declined by 2 million barrels. Analysts were looking for a drop of just 300,000 barrels.

Oil prices made a run at $100 a barrel last week but never topped the triple digit threshold, peaking at $98.62 on Nov. 7.

First signs of demand destruction?

[bkwillia]

No $100 oil week this week:

Cushing inventory is unchanged at 13.4 million barrels.
 
The notable declines are in low sulfur distillate fuel mostly in the mid west and residual fuel in New England.  Looks like heating oil and diesel will continue to out pace gasoline.  Thank ethanol for this. 

According to the report, the demand destruction is only on the refinery side, while product consumption is up.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly
20.6 million barrels per day, down by 0.7 percent compared to the similar
period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged
9.3 million barrels per day, or 0.6 percent above the same period last year.
Distillate fuel demand has averaged nearly 4.3 million barrels per day over the
last four weeks, up 0.5 percent compared to the same period last year. Jet fuel
demand is down 0.2 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same
four-week period last year.

Normally, this is a time when both gasoline and distillate stocks are building strongly.  Instead, refining capacity is down and crude imports are building up.  Refining margins are too tight right now to justify drawing down crude stocks further.  I guess we need a few more weeks for product prices to catch up, especially gasoline. 

[Chip Haynes]

Ah, but it did bounce back above $95.00 this morning.

[lady-t]

i heard a feel good ad about oklahoma oil producers yesterday and i think they said that they could supply the country with 61 milliion barrels of oil a year--i think they said 60---anyway. 

the sheeple think that is a large amount right, until you see how many we use each day

No $100 oil week this week:

Cushing inventory is unchanged at 13.4 million barrels.
 
The notable declines are in low sulfur distillate fuel mostly in the mid west and residual fuel in New England.  Looks like heating oil and diesel will continue to out pace gasoline.  Thank ethanol for this. 

According to the report, the demand destruction is only on the refinery side, while product consumption is up.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly
20.6 million barrels per day, down by 0.7 percent compared to the similar
period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged
9.3 million barrels per day, or 0.6 percent above the same period last year.
Distillate fuel demand has averaged nearly 4.3 million barrels per day over the
last four weeks, up 0.5 percent compared to the same period last year. Jet fuel
demand is down 0.2 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same
four-week period last year.

 

so i guess that means that oklahoma can supply a whopping four days worth ? each year.  whooo hooo 

[Chip Haynes]

More like three days- if we take that third afternoon off.

OOOOOOOOoooooooooooooooklahoma,
where the oil keeps dribblin' out like snot!

See? Now you know why I don't write musicals.