Oil Price Watch

[Chip Haynes]

By the way- oil's lazing along under $93 right now. So much for that meteoric rise we were all looking for.

See? This is why I do not play the lottery.

 

[Coyflyte]

A frank admission, Chip, but right on the money. 

Anyone who thinks that the crude oil price will go nothing but up and the stock market any way but straight down has personal issues with unrealistic expectations in all facets of their lives. 

There's no reason to cheer on doom.  We all need to buy as much time as possible.

Look how much the markets, commodity and equities, have moved recently.  We all know deep down that volatility is the real indicator here. 

The fact that the market is up and oil is down as much today is expected but none-the-less disturbing.

[Felix]

I think the price will go down a few $ every now and then but overall, the price of oil is going nowhere but up over the years.

[Chip Haynes]

So ok, oil's doing a slow sink towards $90- and may drop below that today or tomorrow. Still, I have to wonder about the next rise (and you know there will be one):

How soon? How fast? How far?

If history is any indication, the next run up on oil prices should touch $100.

But when??

 

[MiccyNarc]

Look at the past.  Oil always drops this time of year.

[bkwillia]

Rumors of an OPEC production rise, demand expected to fall due to high prices, hedge funds looking for profits before year end, Dec oil futures contracts expire today.  All wrapped together we get a pull back before the next inventory report on Thursday.  Gasoline futures are down 10c per gallon!  Maybe everything is going to be ok?

LOL NO!  Look for a big decline in all categories on Thursday.  Russia, China, Britain, US, Europe, OPEC are all low on light sweet crude supplies, refining capacity and finished products.  It is literally impossible for WTI oil prices to ease until America starts rationing gasoline or the consumer credit cards are cut off.  I am confident oil will challenge $100 again by then end of the week. 

[Chip Haynes]

Well (no pun intended), oil's down to $91.17 after regular trading today. It looked for a while there as if it was going to dip under the $90 level, but it held up. now it needs to gain almost 10% to hit $100, and I don't expect that wild of a week.

We'll see.

[MiccyNarc]

Well (no pun intended), oil's down to $91.17 after regular trading today. It looked for a while there as if it was going to dip under the $90 level, but it held up. now it needs to gain almost 10% to hit $100, and I don't expect that wild of a week.

We'll see.

Seriously don't wait for it.  It probably won't hit $100 this year. It's possible but not likely.

[Green Man]

I am confident oil will challenge $100 again by then end of the week. 

Yuppers. I am expecting a 6-10 million barrel draw in US commercial crude inventories on Thursday. I think the market will be completely blindsided by it. Traders have been unwinding the positions they took assuming we would see $100 on this run. Refined products could go either way. Refinery utilization should be going up about now, which would ease pressure on products a bit, but add pressure to crude.

I'm seeing this as a replay of what happened at $90. Oil hit $90 in overnight trading, and the next day everything sold off, then the next inventory report had a big drawdown and the race was back on. This time we didn't quite hit $100, so everybody gave up and took their ball and went home. When they see a big drawdown they'll be caught with their pants down and buy buy buy.

[Chip Haynes]

Oil's up a little over a buck this morning at $92.27 over last night's close at $91.17. Apparently many of you expect a report due out tomorrow (Thursday) to seriously boost the price, but for it to dash up to $100 by the market close on Friday might be asking a bit much.

[Sabotage]

93.33 as of 10:40 wed

[Chip Haynes]

Yeah, it just jumped another buck or so. That's over two dollars since the market opened this morning.

Might be an interesting afternoon.

[fishsurfer]

Still going up. 

[Chip Haynes]

$93.65. We might see $95 today. I suspect tomorrow and Friday will see a bit more in the way of action, as there's some sort of report due out on Thursday, and many are expecting bad news in it.

[del2les]

Classic signs of a struggling and staggering wounded beast not trying to breach that glass $100pb. Expect more of this as the "beast" tries to survive, but eventually, its pyschology will have to accept reality and then its a new paradigm.