Oil Watch Monthly for November: (Edit) Declining Wedge Forming?

[Bill Hicks]

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5972

I harp on The Oil Drum's Oil Watch Monthly Report because I consider it the true indicator of how close we are to doom.  That said, the bumpy plateau remains firmly in place for the figures compiled for the month of August.  World oil production remains mired where it was in 2004, riding a couple million BPD below the all time highs.

This is the latest crude oil production graph:



You have to wonder, though, if there are the beginnings of a declining wedge from July 2008.  Time will tell.   

[TheWarriorMax]

The chart is nice, but could do with a little extra info.

Any chance they could put a 20-month moving average on it, to give a visible comparison with the trend?

[Bill Hicks]

The chart is nice, but could do with a little extra info.

Any chance they could put a 20-month moving average on it, to give a visible comparison with the trend?

That's not how they roll at TOD.  They're scientists, not economists.   

[freeyourmind]

WHOA!

Spot price for the front month oil contract goes up. Production goes down.

DOOOOOMMMM

[freeyourmind]

The chart is nice, but could do with a little extra info.

Any chance they could put a 20-month moving average on it, to give a visible comparison with the trend?

That's not how they roll at TOD.  They're scientists, not economists.   

Hey! They actually had included some rolling averages a few months back, they just don't do it often. Here: http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5108

[Bill Hicks]

The chart is nice, but could do with a little extra info.

Any chance they could put a 20-month moving average on it, to give a visible comparison with the trend?

That's not how they roll at TOD.  They're scientists, not economists.   

Hey! They actually had included some rolling averages a few months back, they just don't do it often. Here: http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5108

I missed that one, thanks.  They should do this every month.  It is MUCH more telling:

[teotwawkian]

I believe in the geological reality of peak oil, but for the near term (3-5 years out) supply will likely exceed demand. OPEC currently has 2 1/2 to 5 million barrels of idled capacity and Iraq has just signed a series of deals to boost production from around 1 million barrels a day to 6-7 million barrels. On top of this global demand is down, especially in the USA, which uses around 25% of global oil production.

I see a short term near collapse in oil prices followed by another exponential surge as supply constraints exceed demand in 3-5 years' time.

[fossilfuelfiesta]

I believe in the geological reality of peak oil, but for the near term (3-5 years out) supply will likely exceed production. OPEC currently has 2 1/2 to 5 million barrels of idled capacity and Iraq has just signed a series of deals to boost production from around 1 million barrels a day to 6-7 million barrels. On top of this global demand is down, especially in the USA, which uses around 25% of global oil production.

I see a short term near collapse in oil prices followed by another exponential surge as supply constraints exceed demand in 3-5 years' time.

But these increases in supply already have their work set out for them -- they have to make up for the declines from existing oilfields like Cantarell.

Also, I think you meant to say "supply will likely exceed demand" rather than "supply will likely exceed production", because the latter phrase -- much like our infinite growth-based economy itself -- is a physical impossibility.

[teotwawkian]

Yep - corrected. Thx.

Cantarell, Russia, North Sea, Venezuela and several more areas are declining. The supply decline won't eclipse demand for the next three to five years however, according to the figures I have.

[fossilfuelfiesta]

Cantarell, Russia, North Sea, Venezuela and several more areas are declining. The supply decline won't eclipse demand for the next three to five years however, according to the figures I have.

Can you share these figures (and their sources) with us, please?  I would sleep much easier knowing that we have five years before we have anything to worry about.

[Bill Hicks]

Cantarell, Russia, North Sea, Venezuela and several more areas are declining. The supply decline won't eclipse demand for the next three to five years however, according to the figures I have.

Can you share these figures (and their sources) with us, please?  I would sleep much easier knowing that we have five years before we have anything to worry about.

Click on the link to the article in my original post.  It has much of that data in chart form, including spare capacity.

I agree with this 3-5 year time frame with one caveat.  If the traditional notion of Peak Oil theory (Hubbert's Curve) proves accurate, 3-5 years seems reasonable.  If, however, the recently theorized Net Hubbert Curve (the idea the technoligical improvements have allowed us to drain oil fields more efficiently and thus production will collapse faster) is accuarte, we may be in deep shit within only a year or two.   

[teotwawkian]

Can you share these figures (and their sources) with us, please?  I would sleep much easier knowing that we have five years before we have anything to worry about.

http://www.energyeconomist.com/a6257783p/opec/capacity/excesscapacity.html

[metaforge]

If we're not in deep shit right now with effective 20% unemployment, I wonder what kind of shit we're in exactly?     Financial meltdown, peak oil, or global warming - place your bets!  Have to say financial meltdown seems to be winning atm, but I wouldn't count mother nature out just yet - she can be a real bitch!