The Fallacy of Alternative Energy-Peter Goodchild

[picasso moon]

http://www.countercurrents.org/goodchild141109.htm 
The Fallacy of Alternative Energy, Peter Goodchild, 11/14/09
The major “sources of energy,” using the term in that subjective and non-scientific sense, are fairly obvious: oil, coal, and natural gas, as well as ― much further down the list ― nuclear power and hydro. These sources now allow us to “produce energy” (in the humanistic sense) at the rate of about 16 terawatts. All other sources of “energy” amount to far less than 16 terawatts, and that will always be the case. (Yes, solar energy reaching the Earth is considerable, but it is spread out so thinly that it is not very useful.)
Descending from these Aristotelian heights, what grand conclusions can we draw? Perhaps the most important deduction is that the Earth is not an infinite repository of “sources of energy” for the delectation of mankind. The Earth is just a rock, floating in space. If a “source of energy” was not there at the beginning of the Earth, then all the “cutting-edge technology” with which we are so enamored is not going to put it there.
We, as humans, are not in a position either to create or to redesign a planet that has an equatorial diameter of about 12,756 kilometers but is, in essence, nothing more than an accident of Nature. If anything appears on Earth that is of use to us, then we are fortunate. If such a thing does not appear on Earth, perhaps contrary to our expectations, then we must be resigned to the fact.
I sympathize with those who, since about the 1960s, have been putting all their money into the bottomless pit of the “alternative energy” industry, but my compassion does not extend to prevarication. There is really no sense in devoting vast amounts of time in trying to prove that 2+2=5. But the case is worse than that: unfortunately, so many people who get into discussions over “alternative energy” have simply never bothered to do their basic homework.
The kind of writing I look for could be roughly described as follows. We might consider the 11 points listed below. [ the points are then discussed, including this one which is often overlooked]
8. The global economy is highly dependent on metals, including iron, copper, and aluminum. The mining industry faces two problems: huge requirements of energy (derived from fossil fuels), and a shortage of high-quality ore. 
He then concludes: To say that the coming centuries will be a challenge would be an enormous understatement. Perhaps in a future scriptorium, when the facts and legends about the present era are being scratched onto parchment, there will be a chance to reflect on the foolishness of spending time on electric toys and magic tricks, when so much of more practical value could have been done to mitigate the ravages of famine, plague, and war.

[jmhpolar]

Forum technophiles arriving to debunk in 3...2..1... 

[memills]

Genetically modified algae to oil.

Laser focused fusion.

My only concern is whether these are scalable, and whether we have have enough tim

[metaforge]

Right... otherwise they're a slam dunk... gotcha.   

The good news is after 3 (or possibly 4) generations, no one will give a shit about 20th century lifestyle.  How much do you remember about how your great-great-grandparents spent their money?

[lodo_bear]

Genetically modified algae to oil.

Laser focused fusion.

My only concern is whether these are scalable, and whether we have have enough tim

Smart folks have said that we're about 30 years away from a commercial fusion reactor, assuming all goes well. Smart folks have also said that we're about 10 years away from commercial biodiesel, again assuming all goes well.

We haven't even got five good years of "all going well" ahead of us. If we're lucky, these projects won't get completely scrapped when the world starts to burn, but they'll have to wait until after the crisis has hit and the dust has settled.

It makes me want to curse.

[Chip Haynes]

I have always found it to be perversely ironic that we will just barely not get our alternatives lined up before the oil crashes. (And I don't doubt for a moment that we won't.)

My only happy thought in all of this is the idea that we did, originally, build a pretty good rail system across the US without any oil at all.

So we can do it again.

The hard way.

 

[Hendrek]

http://www.doomers.us/forum2/index.php/topic,56745.0.html

[Xenopus]

Smart folks have said that we're about 30 years away from a commercial fusion reactor, assuming all goes well. Smart folks have also said that we're about 10 years away from commercial biodiesel, again assuming all goes well.
.

We've been 30 years away from a fusion reactor since I was in high school in the 1950s.

[Chip Haynes]

Some things never change.

 

[metaforge]

Aren't we always 30 years away from living like The Jetsons too?

[teotwawkian]

Yes, solar energy reaching the Earth is considerable, but it is spread out so thinly that it is not very useful.

I believe this is the key to future energy with a transition via nuclear in the short (20-30 years) term.

The amount of energy reaching earth via sunlight is absolutely mind boggling. There are a lot of smart folks working on solutions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy

'Course the rift between now and when usable solutions are found, given our our current population and global infrastructure, means the next two generations are...well...pretty much f***ed.

[horsedrawn]

Yes, solar energy reaching the Earth is considerable, but it is spread out so thinly that it is not very useful.

I believe this is the key to future energy with a transition via nuclear in the short (20-30 years) term.

The amount of energy reaching earth via sunlight is absolutely mind boggling. There are a lot of smart folks working on solutions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy

'Course the rift between now and when usable solutions are found, given our our current population and global infrastructure, means the next two generations are...well...pretty much f***ed.

[/color]


wel it may be true that there are people working on it but !  can the sun make solar panels?
I mean can it power the equipment to mine the materials ? can it transport them across oceans?
can it power the factories that make the panels?
most likly NOT ! I like the idea of solar but it is just an idea that like bio fuels will never replace oil.
 

[Phildo]

Speaking of looney monologues . . . .

In the interest of fitting in, I have been practicing.  Here is my try . . . .

-----------------------

Can only horses make Solar Panels?  Can only horses swim across great oceans with Solar Panels tied on their backs?  Can only horses design and build the factories to operated by highly skilled horses?

Most like -- YES!

Let us return to some good horse sense

For details, buy my new ebook by Mr. Ed, the talking -- and now internets writing -- horse. 

--------------------------------

so whatdaya think?  Look about right?

    

[metaforge]

Yes, solar energy reaching the Earth is considerable, but it is spread out so thinly that it is not very useful.

I believe this is the key to future energy with a transition via nuclear in the short (20-30 years) term.

The amount of energy reaching earth via sunlight is absolutely mind boggling. There are a lot of smart folks working on solutions.

'Course the rift between now and when usable solutions are found, given our our current population and global infrastructure, means the next two generations are...well...pretty much f***ed.

Right... so we'll go through a few generations of Mad Max, keep the smart people tucked away in a lab, and they'll breed & teach their offspring their mission, until finally, the smart people descendants emerge with a shout of "Eureka!" when they've learned the secret of solar/fusion.  Max Maxians will put down their spears and arrows, and then, lookout Jetsons here we come.

[teotwawkian]

Right... so we'll go through a few generations of Mad Max

Mad Max is a movie and a remote scenario given the timeframe and constraints. A more likely scenario is that the world will become relatively very expensive as lower disposible incomes are devoted to increasingly costly essentials (food, transport, energy). Governments will likely become more and more draconian as they attempt to control an increasingly impoverished and unruly population and maintain the status quo. The gulf between the wealthy elite and the regular folks will widen further and further. Countries will move toward protectionism, close their borders, and attempt control their internal populations via ever growing police, military, and tax hikes.

The future IMO looks more like a global police state than a wild bunch of gas seeking freaks on motorcycles patrolling a vast, empty desert devoid of food and shelter.