Sinclair - Important Concepts

[Big Scotsman]

If you took Sinclair's advice in 2000 when Gold was $250/oz, you'd be up 450%.  Here is his latest on the USD.   Emphasis mine. 

1. I would recommend that you review the paper by Martin Armstrong titled "How All Systems Can Collapse Overnight."

The US dollar has declined slowly and in an orderly manner. Loss of confidence internationally is building. All of sudden the orderly decline, like all bear markets, will become completely disorderly.

Gold will be up $75 and then gain another $75 in the US hours as shorts are taken out on a stretcher.

http://jsmineset.com/2009/11/16/important-concepts-to-help-you-understand-this-market/

[Big Scotsman]

I think this is an extremely important concept to understand.  What he is saying is is by the time most people realize there is a problem with the dollar, it will be to late.

I've always felt this is the way it's going to go down.  This will ultimately result in massive hyperinflation as everyone loses confidence in and tries to flee the USD.

Not only do the majority (95 %) of Americans not understand the USD, they actually have bought the lie that a devalued USD is a benefit to them.

If the dumb asses are excited about a devalued USD at 75 watch the look on J6P face at USD 40.

[Seahorse]

One time, on another board, I had some nice exchanges via PM with a guy that lived in Argentina during their crisis in 2000.  I asked him what it was like, warnings etc.  He said everyone knew there were problems and the big money got out, secretly, on the sly so to speak, so that when it happened, when it crashed over about a two week period, the average man was caught by surprise.

[Athina]

I'm not sure how to interpret Sinclair's second point - about Gold.
Does he think the price will come down to $1044 so China will have a chance to save face to purchase then?
Thoughts?

[lynnie]

This is a good post and good bolding, Scot.

I am reminded of the book from 1841 called Extraordinary Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. It is almost like a textbook on mass hysteria, mass panic, mass insanity. The financial part is especially applicable.

Yes, something will happen and in one hour the whole Babylonian system will fall. Half the money in  our big banks is foreign deposits. All it takes is one rumor and they'll all want to pull it out at the same time. (while we are asleep in our time zone). I just keep prepping all I can.

This is from an Amazon review:

 Why do otherwise intelligent individuals form seething masses of idiocy when they engage in collective action? Why do financially sensible people jump lemming-like into hare-brained speculative frenzies--only to jump broker-like out of windows when their fantasies dissolve? We may think that the Great Crash of 1929, junk bonds of the '80s, and over-valued high-tech stocks of the '90s are peculiarly 20th century aberrations, but Mackay's classic--first published in 1841--shows that the madness and confusion of crowds knows no limits, and has no temporal bounds. These are extraordinarily illuminating,and, unfortunately, entertaining tales of chicanery, greed and naivete. Essential reading for any student of human nature or the transmission of ideas.

In fact, cases such as Tulipomania in 1624--when Tulip bulbs traded at a higher price than gold--suggest the existence of what I would dub "Mackay's Law of Mass Action:" when it comes to the effect of social behavior on the intelligence of individuals, 1+1 is often less than 2, and sometimes considerably less than 0.

http://www.amazon.com/Extraordinary-Popular-Delusions-Madness-Crowds/dp/9562915700?&camp=212361&linkCode=wey&tag=altgate-20&creative=380737

[Big Scotsman]

One time, on another board, I had some nice exchanges via PM with a guy that lived in Argentina during their crisis in 2000.  I asked him what it was like, warnings etc.  He said everyone knew there were problems and the big money got out, secretly, on the sly so to speak, so that when it happened, when it crashed over about a two week period, the average man was caught by surprise.

That is a great point Seahorse.  From my studies of collapses, they are said to happen "over night" and the hyperinflation aftermath strikes like lightening. 

I can tell you each and every morning I wake up, check to see if the collapse has happened. 

I think for many of us, we have prepared for the collapse for a long time.  I can promise you one thing.  I won't be caught off guard.

[Big Scotsman]

I'm not sure how to interpret Sinclair's second point - about Gold.
Does he think the price will come down to $1044 so China will have a chance to save face to purchase then?
Thoughts?

Athina, I take it as the bottom is now $1044 and I suspect we will see that again, but when we do, EVERYONE will pounce & the prices will go through the roof. 

IMO Gold at $1140 is a steal.  I would not try to play this market. 

[Athina]

Thanks for your thoughts Big Scotsman.
On some charts gold is looking like it might go parabolic which in most cases indicates after that quick top, comes a quick pullback.
But with gold in a multi year bull market and but still being manipulated, one never knows if a pullback is due or if it will take that moon shot

[joewp]

This is a good post and good bolding, Scot.

I am reminded of the book from 1841 called Extraordinary Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. It is almost like a textbook on mass hysteria, mass panic, mass insanity. The financial part is especially applicable.

It's in the public domain and available at the Gutenberg project website: http://www.gutenberg.org/etext/24518

[jonny quest]

My problem w/Sinclair is he is trying to put a date on 'this is it.'  That being said, his latest interview w/Eric King should be listened to by anyone holding metals.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/King_World_News.html

[Big Scotsman]

My problem w/Sinclair is he is trying to put a date on 'this is it.'

I think we are all trying to put a date on this is it?  People are trying to make decisions to protect their families.  I can give you thousands of examples of why it would be wise to try to figure out when this is going to POP! 

[Seahorse]

I'm unable to download that Sinclair interview.  What did he say of note?

[jonny quest]

... Extraordinary Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. It is almost like a textbook on mass hysteria, mass panic, mass insanity...

Be sure to check out Robert Hirsch's PO interview this week over @ Puplava's site; it's a sober listen outlining what will happen when PO can no longer be ignored.  http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-1114-3a.mp3

His bio is here: http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2009/Hirsch.html

[jonny quest]

I'm unable to download that Sinclair interview.  What did he say of note?

Here's the direct link to the .mp3

If that doesn't work try cutting/pasting below sans the quotes:
"http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2009/11/13_Jim_Sinclair_files/Jim Sinclair 11%3A13%3A2009.mp3"

and King touches on the highlights here:  http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2009/11/13_Jim_Sinclair.html

The most salient points to me were: 1) His explanation of the shenigans Bay Street uses on junior miners and 2) how traders like his dad & Livermore operated vs. the quants of today.

And @Scotsman - Sinclair's insights should be widely distributed through the internets, but his dating of this crisis and that crisis makes him an easy target of discreditation, i.e. Sinclair is not the webbots.

[ninakat]

I'm unable to download that Sinclair interview.  What did he say of note?

The main thing I got out of the interview was the idea of sitting tight through the volatility of the gold market, rather than trading to try and be profitable.