So what is peak oil like to the "outsider"?

[EWHM]

Sadly that won't work in the 3rd world where all the breeding is taking place.  Babies are the retirement plan, and people are too poor to have much fun with or without kids I imagine.

It seems to be working slowly in most of the 3rd world, most of said countries have rapidly falling birthrates, but that I suspect that will change before too long also, because birth control & modern societies are artificial selection against people without a large intrinsic desire for children and sufficient future time orientation to use birth control successfully.  Frankly, babies are the only retirement plan going that has any long-term history of actually working.  My Chinese co-workers understand this (for them, the 1st son is expected to take care of the parents when they get very old---which probably explains a lot of the selective abortion of female children considered in light of the 1 child policy).  But, if the industrialized nations are concerned about overpopulation, they'd do well to consider that all of their increase comes from immigration, and alter their policies and enforcement accordingly.

[MEA]

Sadly that won't work in the 3rd world where all the breeding is taking place.  Babies are the retirement plan, and people are too poor to have much fun with or without kids I imagine.

What seems to work for the 3rd world, is 1) reduce infant mortality (which seems counter-intutative) 2) education, esp. for women, 3) after a generation in whcih the population increases, it then starts to fall, and eventually levels off.

It's too late for this now, but if it had been pushed post WWII instead of some other policies, it might have worked.

[metaforge]

It seems to be working slowly in most of the 3rd world, most of said countries have rapidly falling birthrates

Rapidly falling rates?  From what?  7 kids per woman to 6.5?   

[bmcnett]

I was a slashdot-reader and techno-cornucopian until 2005, when I came here and figured it out.

I think I can explain the mindset I had, and maybe that can help explain the mindset of others.

For most of my life, I invested my time into computers, and I was rewarded with lucrative skills. Every five years, I could look back and see that my earning power had improved.

Without technology, I doubt I would have gone as far in life. Questioning its value would have felt like questioning a dear friend, parent or mentor.

That was a place where I knew not to go, and so I didn't go there. It's a matter of loyalty and trust more than anything else.

From what little I know about psychology, I think that's what brainwashing is ultimately all about.

I think a lot of people - even peak oilers, ironically - have the same problem with 9/11. There's some really obvious video evidence that the official story is nonsense, and false flag attacks have been well-documented for thousands of years (ancient Egypt was founded with one) but people just can't afford to go there. The loss of faith in mass media, which forms and molds their worldview, would be too emotionally painful.

[chenopodium]

Hi Cheno. Could you please elaborate on your rather sudden transformation? How did you go from your friend being "weird" to you husband telling you about PO and stamping him a doomer to completely understanding our predicament?

Ovis,

Sorry for the late answer :-).

I think the following few facts did it:
that peak discovery was around 1964, that the USA had a peak in 1971, and the fact that roughly 10 calories of oil go into one calorie of food. I suddenly "saw" the whole picture, and I think it is difficult to say exactly what really did it, and what it would take for other people to see it.

And then, what really "broke" me, was reading the Long Emergency. I felt like a family member died...
It was good though, at least it got me motivated to act!

Cheno

[EWHM]

It seems to be working slowly in most of the 3rd world, most of said countries have rapidly falling birthrates

Rapidly falling rates?  From what?  7 kids per woman to 6.5?   

Ok, one example, Iran, approximate population 72 million.
Total fertility rate:  1.71 chilldren/woman (CIA , @2008 estimate).
1.99 children/woman in 2003
Considerably more than that from 1950-2000.  6.6 in 1977,  2.8 in 1996

Many other nations have had a similar demographic transition.
India is currently at @2.7 children/woman, a serious drop from the 1950-2000 period. (5.91 at 1950-1955,  4.5 from 1980-1985, 3.45 from 1995-2000).

If you're interested, there's a very nice site for this at:
http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp?panel=2
Just pick your country, pick your variables, and the data is all available.  In the US, perhaps the Mormons are destined to rule :-)

[chenopodium]

bmcnett,
I am also a software engineer :-) (and an ENTJ :-). I wonder how many software engineers are on this site, it must be quite a few.
My husband is ALSO a software engineer, and one of the very few peak oilers I know from real life.

Like you I also had put a lot of faith in technology before, and since my job bascially depends on technology, it was very hard to see that my job may have no future. I also believed whatever I learned in school, and defended it against "skeptics".

Interestingly, once I became a peak oiler, I was also more "ready" to give up other beliefs, and I am now generally MUCH more sceptical of any "mainstream" belief.

For instance I also think that in 9/11 that there was at least some foul play (the demolition of the buildings), and I question even long held beliefs I had in science, such as the big bang theory that I vigurously defended before (that alone a huge topic ;-).

I am more willing to "listen" to alternative opinions and views and not just dismiss them as I did before.
I only accept a theory once I am able to fully comprehend it myself, no matter who it is from, no matter if it is from a professor, nobel laureate or someone "famous".

Since I learned of PO, I read piles of books on anyting even remotely related to PO, from economy to psychology to geology (and also science), and I found many flaws in many areas and many wrong mainstream beliefs. For instance our economic model, just to name one!

Cheno

[metaforge]

I think many of us tech folk have followed a similar path.  But still seem to be relatively few of us aware.  I never did real slashdot btw. 

[ As far as population goes - wanted to stop the thread jack - loved their projections out to 2050. lol.  Still coming down far too slowly to matter. ]