Hurricane Ida

[Armageddon]

What are they expecting this thing to be at landfall ? 

[Megadoom]

What are they expecting this thing to be at landfall ? 

A 75 mph extratropical system.

[wiccawench]

<------ maybe the blowing in the wind comment might be a little too accurate atm Mega?

i am watching this too...... i hope that people snap out of complacency... that bugs the hell out of me.

Complacency for self is one thing..... but if you have kids and elderly parents..... i don't know.....seems somewhat selfish.

[DJSNOLA]

Yay!! Go Saints! Well im sure the NOLA area posters will giver everyone and updateon what the weather is like, but one thing that was creepy was the offshore windflow that showed up postgame. If it was AugustI would not be happy!

[wiccawench]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1376

[Megadoom]

<------ maybe the blowing in the wind comment might be a little too accurate atm Mega?

i am watching this too...... i hope that people snap out of complacency... that bugs the hell out of me.

Complacency for self is one thing..... but if you have kids and elderly parents..... i don't know.....seems somewhat selfish.

I know, it's blowing my mind the way people are treating this storm. I just listened to Bob Breck, a local metereologist that is notoriously wrong; had to apologize over Katrina, and who last night said the Gulf was too cold for Ida to develop into a huricane....well we see how that turned out, quipped merrily that Ida would brush on off to the East with minimal effects and down played the damage it may or may not cause to S. MS, AL, and the panhandle of Florida, even suggesting they might not lose power  . He's really convinced cool northern water temps will tear Ida up and weaken it so quickly that it won't amount to anything much stronger than a weak tropical storm. I'm not convinced by any means, and I'll be ready to deal with water possibly coming into the Lake Borgne/Pearl River basin tomorrow morning. My friend down the street asked if I could come over tomorrow if Ida starts pushing water into his backyard to move everything in his shop (huge metal building) up to higher shelves. He'll also have to move his travel trailer to higher ground, he's been living in this since Katrina while he builds his house, a work still in progress.

If anything happens I'll film it and post it here. Should be "neat." Might even head on over to Pensacola to help my friend "everyman44" with any storm related damage. Pictures and video forth coming.

[Megadoom]

What's going on so far.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/AidFT4HvXyw&amp;ap=%2526fmt%3D18&amp;rel=0" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/v/AidFT4HvXyw&amp;ap=%2526fmt%3D18&amp;rel=0</a>

[roughrider504]

I was thinking that after the Saints game, people would do some preparations, at least picking up a few things. Yet I have seen nothing being done thus far.

Schools are closed tomorrow so I will have time to set the generator up in case we lose power during the night.

[Lord Black Eyes]

The eye is forecast to come on shore Tuesday at sunrise, and tropical storm force winds currently extend out 200 miles, so I figure tropical storm force winds will start getting on shore at sunset Monday night.

maps http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspotlight.php?year=2009&storm=11

[PonyBoy78]

Ida is an afterthought.  She won't be a bother.

there fixed that for you.... purple i for sarcasm.... if it WAS sarcastic..... 

be safe everyone...... 

Definitely should've been purple.  From how my parents' neighbors are acting, she's an afterthought over here in NO, but for my mother-in-law over in Alabama, she definitely isn't. 

[Lord Black Eyes]

3 AM CST, 90 MPH, 988 MB, moving NNW at 16 MPH
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

track maps and satellite http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspotlight.php?year=2009&storm=11

From the Forecast Discussion

THE LATEST FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT IDA IS MOVING ...FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. (landfall location appears the same)

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE THROUGH 24 HOURS TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER
LANDFALL...IDA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN SHARPLY TOWARD THE EAST...

THE SHEAR OVER IDA IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT MORE THAN 30 KT BY
UW-CIMSS...AND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE MARKEDLY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH COOLER WATERS ALONG THE TRACK OF
IDA OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEAKENING
TREND.

From the Advisory
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS

IDA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE
WHEN IT APPROACHES THE GULF COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER
LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.  A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO WEST
OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

[Lord Black Eyes]

The eye is forecast to come on shore Tuesday at sunrise,

But I'm expecting it sooner.


Hm. loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ft.html

[J.A.F.O.]

I'd post some images and graphs but I'm at work and I can't copy and paste from these computers.

For future reference, Megadoom.. often when you can't copy and paste via mouse, you can still do it with the keyboard.. Ctrl-c (copy) and Ctrl-v (paste) are your friends.. (Ctrl-x is cut, btw)

Best wishes to all in Ida's path.

[Lord Black Eyes]

I didn't know quite what to say with what's going on with Ida, and then I saw this just posted on flhurricane.com. Sounds good.

The race between the shear/extratropical transition and landfall continues. Judging by appearance it's likely that Ida will be a strong Tropical Storm at landfall maybe even decoupled from most of the convection, with a lot of hybrid storm tendencies, minor to moderate storm surge will be an issue near the landfall point and east.


It's mostly good news this morning, in the fact that most of the very strong winds will not reach the surface with the shear. The only real worry is some coastal flooding.

That said, there are still hurricane warnings in the 6 AM CST Advisory. IDA COULD STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT
APPROACHES THE GULF COAST TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

Max sustained: 80 mph
Moving: NNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb

maps and satellite http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspotlight.php?year=2009&storm=11


The estimated landfall arrow on the chart below is from yesterday. Depending on what happens, that might be pushed back closer to midnight.

[haveeight]

This morning it seems Ida is not turning as much eastward as predicted....but then that's the way with predictions.  Up here in the Florida Panhandle we'll be buying some extra gas for the generators, and we're not worried about food. We already have enough on hand to feed us for months.  Often with storms that lose strength we end up with a huge amount of rain over a longer period of time.  Days rather than hours.  Then we have flooding, power outages, trees down, etc.  There is worry about beach erosion along the coast from Pensacola to Franklin County.  We live over 50 miles inland so that's not a problem.  But the season has been so quite this year I can imagine a number of people thinking about blowing this one off.  Never a good idea.