Hurricane Ida

[Lord Black Eyes]

It appears to be a category two hurricane once more,

Officially not quite yet.

If that happens my house will flood (post Katrina erosion and wetland loss).

I'm sorry to hear that.
Is this a short-term place you're living?


Here's something that was just posted as a comment on Dr. Jeff Masters' Wunder Blog.

CycloneOz 1:54 PM GMT on November 08, 2009           
Very interesting at breakfast this morning near Diamondhead, MS at the Waffle House.

The waitresses saw my hurricane van and asked me about it...as I was updating my blog at the table.

"There's a hurricane coming into the Gulf," I said.

"What?" one of them replied. "Isn't hurricane season over?"

I showed 10 people the Tropical / Hurricane link here at WU.

They all were incredulous.

There has been no mention of a hurricane threatening the Gulf Coast to date in this area.

When I was filling up my spare gas cans (for $2.39 a gallon) outside of Biloxi, a cop was filling up at the next stall.

I asked her were they ready for the hurricane.

"What hurricane?" she replied.

[Lord Black Eyes]

From the Advisory
AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. THIS WATCH DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS.

Check out the latest forecast track maps http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspotlight.php?year=2009&storm=11

[Lord Black Eyes]

[Megadoom]

It appears to be a category two hurricane once more,

Officially not quite yet.

If that happens my house will flood (post Katrina erosion and wetland loss).

I'm sorry to hear that.
Is this a short-term place you're living?


Here's something that was just posted as a comment on Dr. Jeff Masters' Wunder Blog.

CycloneOz 1:54 PM GMT on November 08, 2009           
Very interesting at breakfast this morning near Diamondhead, MS at the Waffle House.

The waitresses saw my hurricane van and asked me about it...as I was updating my blog at the table.

"There's a hurricane coming into the Gulf," I said.

"What?" one of them replied. "Isn't hurricane season over?"

I showed 10 people the Tropical / Hurricane link here at WU.

They all were incredulous.

There has been no mention of a hurricane threatening the Gulf Coast to date in this area.

When I was filling up my spare gas cans (for $2.39 a gallon) outside of Biloxi, a cop was filling up at the next stall.

I asked her were they ready for the hurricane.

"What hurricane?" she replied.

I'll back up that report by saying no-one is aware of this thing in the sense that it's perceived as a threat. I live just 15 mins from Diamondhead (know the Waffle house too) to the East on hwy 90. The news channels are dutifuly tracking this storm but nothing is being done by civil authorities other than monitoring. What I think they're thinking is New Orleans and the MS gulfcoast will be on the West side of this thing, and that it will weaken to a tropical storm once its close to land, and therefore there's no reason to evacuate and spend millions, which they don't have by the way, by over-reacting.

Gustav, a land falling cat 2 far to the West of my location put 2' of water in the old house, an event not seen since Katrina or the fifthty years prior, and the local residents are deeply discouraged that the risk of flooding is so much higher than in previous decades. Anytime we get a multi-day strong gale out of the East or SE the water piles into Lake Borgne and into the Pearl River basin. Now whether A strong East wind from Ida can push enough water into Pearlington to reach my house remains to be seen, but judging what Gustav did, a storm that hit much further away than Ida is expected to be; albeit much further West with more SE flow, I expect some flooding if Ida comes anywhere close to the expected track or more to the West of it.

Other than that it still remains a waiting game. I'm at work right now shuffling crazy people and pediatric isolettes and no-one is talking about this thing. Other than some coverage on the News, during the weather briefing, it's bussiness as usual. Back in 2005 hurricane Katrina had the same effect as everyone became fixated on the projected plotted line that took it into the panhandle of Florida on Friday night. Everywhere it seemed people were breathing a sigh of relief and went to bed expecting to watch the fireworks in Pensacola the next morning over eggs and bacon. Course we know the rest of the story.

Let's just say I am concerned and also monitoring this thing. I have flood coverage so I'm prepared financially if the worse happens. Plenty of doom preps too.

I'll keep you updated as this thing approaches.

[rocketgirl]

Best wishes to you Mega

[DJSNOLA]

We will be fine! Now go Saint! 8-0

[PonyBoy78]

We will be fine! Now go Saint! 8-0

This will get me bashed around here, but I'll say it: I love Saints football.   My wonderful sister got married here in New Orleans last night, and bought me tickets to today's game.  We're about to head on out to Poydras..

Ida is an afterthought.  She won't be a bother.

[wiccawench]

We will be fine! Now go Saint! 8-0

This will get me bashed around here, but I'll say it: I love Saints football.   My wonderful sister got married here in New Orleans last night, and bought me tickets to today's game.  We're about to head on out to Poydras..

Ida is an afterthought.  She won't be a bother.

there fixed that for you.... purple i for sarcasm.... if it WAS sarcastic..... 

be safe everyone...... 

[gnosis]

Alright... this thing is starting to look ominous...

It's heading straight for the NO, Mississippi, Alabama area and according to what I see in the weather reports, it is a category two hurricane.

First question:  What happens, generally, when such storms enter the deeper waters of the Gulf of Mexico? Do they strengthen or weaken?

Second question:  If it makes landfall as a category 2 storm, how much damage would that do?

[Xenopus]

Second question:  If it makes landfall as a category 2 storm, how much damage would that do?

Depends precisely where it is, but I can assure you that the New Orleans levees are not good enough to withstand the NE side of a a cat 2. The Corps of Engineers says so.

[Megadoom]

Alright... this thing is starting to look ominous...

It's heading straight for the NO, Mississippi, Alabama area and according to what I see in the weather reports, it is a category two hurricane.

First question:  What happens, generally, when such storms enter the deeper waters of the Gulf of Mexico? Do they strengthen or weaken?

Second question:  If it makes landfall as a category 2 storm, how much damage would that do?

OK, normally if this wasn't November and was August the system would be moving over some really warm waters, but since it is the waters of the GOM right now they are rather cool located close to the gulf coast. I'd post some images and graphs but I'm at work and I can't copy and paste from these computers. Ida will be moving over the gulf stream loop current, and that is why it's expected to develop into a cat 2 hurricane but by the time it nears LA, MS, and AL it will be moving over much cooler waters (70's) and this isn't condusive to tropical development. This is why the NHC is expecting this to become extra-tropical by the time it incorporates itself in the approaching cold front and becomes whisked off to the East or corkscrew to the South. If Ida does indeed follow the forcasted track precisely (fat chance of that) it will do little to New Orleans other then a strong gale and some rain, but on the other hand if this storm comes into Mobile as projected and then hugs the coast of FL it will bring down tree's, knock out power, and do was typical of a cat 1 or tropical storm. However, I am in a vulnerable river basin that now floods with any tropical wind that blows out of the East or SE more than 35 to 45 mph...like potentially this one. Ida is definitely an issue for me.

Ida could bring New Orleans much bigger problems if it takes a course just slightly further West of the projected path, and some of the models do just that, but the NHC is going with the middle road of the projected guidance, if not slightly East of it. That's there call. Course, yesterday I would like to point out that they had Ida staying out to to sea and not making landfall in Alabama or Florida, and now they are. Tomorrow, it might be shifted further West or East and then the eventual outcome will be different. It's all very variable and every storm is unique; however, with Ida I'm seeing people taking it for granted and blowing it off, and for me that's foolish.

Considering PO, depression, and mass starvation, the Saints can go to hell....however much I love them. So geaux Saints and whatever.   Roman plebes did the same thing over the gladiators while the barbarians were at the gates. There's also this to consider, if any one of those players was offered more money to go play some place else...they would. Other than capitalism they have no "real" affection for the fans. Displays of charity is all show.  

[roughrider504]

I seem to be the only one slightly worried in my neighborhood. I pulled the ax out and got rid of some plywood lying in the yard and got gas for the truck and generator. The gas station was empty. It seems the football game conquers all, including a cat. 2 hurricane.

I don't see the effects being too bad here in New Orleans, although it's still something to prepare for. 

[gnosis]

AP says: La. Gov. declares state of emergency ahead of Ida

[Lord Black Eyes]

6 PM CST, 105 MPH, moving NNW at 12 MPH, 979 MB http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

maps etc. http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspotlight.php?year=2009&storm=11

[feelingweird]

Some of the models are really showing some really wierd paths.

One shows the hurricane staling out just off the coast and then turning around and heading out to sea. Another shows it going inland making a right turn and then back out to sea. Several others show it making a hard right after land fall going back out to sea and hitting florida.

STRANGE>

robert