Which rare earth metal already in supply crunch?

[bowman]

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.09/rareearths.html

Does anyone know which rare earth metal Byron King is talking about here?  I thought maybe rhodium or palladium but neither chart seems to fit the timeline he mentions exactly.  Or maybe they both do.  This is from the end of the linked article. 

Living Off Past Stockpiles

With one particular element - which I’ll decline to name just now - there’s already a severe supply crunch. This is an element that’s used in a wide variety of electronic products. The supply chain could run dry soon.

Thus, the industry that uses this item is "living off past stockpiles," according to one inside player. Last year, the general estimate was that there’s enough product in the supply chain to last for two years. So the pipeline will be dry by 2012.

What happened? The problems originated with an unprecedented spike in the spot market price in 2000. In this thinly traded resource, supply fears caused many nervous dealers to sign long-term contracts and lock themselves into high market prices. Then when prices crashed for product off contract, across the user community, there were significant inventory write-downs, both current and future.

By 2006 and 2007, the industry returned to some semblance of normality. But with the crash of 2008, everything fell off a cliff as the economic meltdown jammed the brakes on consumer demand.

Meanwhile, the few companies that mine the substance suspended production. So now there’s a situation in which primary production of ore is all but shut down. There are stockpiles, and just a very limited amount of material coming out of a very small number of mines in faraway jurisdictions.

Thus, with this product, as with most other of the critical technology metals, the question to ask is what does is the downstream industry fear more? High prices for an essential, irreplaceable input? Or lack of physical supply from the mine and mill and widespread unavailability of any product at any price?

It’s a problem within the industry. And it’s just this kind of situation that gives us an entree into an opportunity for profit.

[Jonathan_Byron]

Not sure - Lanthanum and Gadolinium are recently up 11-12%, but not sure how things have moved in the past months or which element he is talking about.

http://www.metal-pages.com/metalprices/rareearths/

[jonny quest]

http://www.gwmg.ca/rare-earths/faq

Also go to kingworldnews.com and search for the 2 Jim Dines interviews as he's the most knowledgeable rare earth stock guy imo.  AVARF, CREQF, & LYSCF are on my watch list, but the easy fast money has already been made (one of Dine's picks did 3,000% from May to July '09) and you're back in uranium stock territory again, i.e. small gains with the potential for huge losses until the next mania starts.

[DoomOrBust]

http://www.gwmg.ca/rare-earths/faq

Also go to kingworldnews.com and search for the 2 Jim Dines interviews as he's the most knowledgeable rare earth stock guy imo.  AVARF, CREQF, & LYSCF are on my watch list, but the easy fast money has already been made (one of Dine's picks did 3,000% from May to July '09) and you're back in uranium stock territory again, i.e. small gains with the potential for huge losses until the next mania starts.

Check out stock symbol TNR on the Canadian TMX Exchange, they have many REE (Rare Earth Element, mostly lithium) properties and are about to spin off a REE company and give current shareholders on record free shares in the spin off company. I figured what the heck and bought some shares at .19 a few months ago, up approx 50% but will probably be lots more once the spin off date is announced.

Edited to add: Forgot to mention the stock symbol TNR.

[ellen45]

Not sure which he's referring to, but platinum and lithium are definitely on the "endangered species" list.

[jock]

I'd go for lithium as well. Huge demand for the carbide used in rechargeable batteries from little aaa cells up to toyota prius cars. Most of the reserves are found in the brine flats of Bolivia. The Bolivian govt is very against allowing foreign corporations a toehold and want to develop the resources themselves for their own benefit.

[DoomOrBust]

Everything you ever wanted to know about Lithium is supplied in the link below.

http://research.dundeesecurities.com/Research/Lithium102809.pdf

[Grower]

Definitely lithium, I'd bet. It's crucial for all the new batteries and solar applications that people are touting as the remedy for peak oil.

However, there are other rare earth minerals used in solar apparatus that could also be one of the candidates.

[bowman]

Cool, thanks for the info. 

So how would a guy invest in lithium without buying mining stocks?  I guess it's probably not possible.  I was hoping it was palladium so I could just buy some physical coins and sit on them.  I don't play the stock markets at all and mining stocks seem to require a lot more research than just knowing the fundamentals of the underlying metal, so I probably won't start now. 

[Timactionfigures]

Well, I'd say gold must be in a supply crunch. Anyone see those "Cash for Gold" commercials all over the TV?

Yep...that's the government begging for your gold jewelry. They take the gold, give you worthless federal reserve notes for it, and then proceed to turn the "old gold" into fresh bullion.

Supply crunch indeed.

[QuinteYankanucks]

Gold it is, I think, Timactionfigures.

'extremely efficient in solar energy applications.

'a low-maintenance reflector (no tarnish) and concentrator and excellent high temperature heat shielding properties.

India, BTW, announced in August of this year plans for a massive solar energy project (20 GW or something , I think)

' just a wild-assed guess, of course.

John

[Tinfoilhatmann]

I'm guessing gold as well.

[Abhaha]

It is about renewable energy and rare earth metals needed to build the equipment. This includes hybrid cars, windmills to generate electricity and so on.  A few months ago, China put a lock on them for export. They produce most of them for the world:

Decline of Rare Earth Metals Used In Clean Tech Might Compromise Future Innovations