If you Fall into a 100 ft. Deep Well and Climb up 5 ft. are you Saved?

[jtmo3]

Good article.


If you Fall into a 100 ft. Deep Well and Climb up 5 ft. are you Saved?

By John Galt

November 4, 2009

Today the media celebrated more grandiose economic news.  First, they proclaimed the great news that Government Motor’s sales increased 4.7% month over month. Since year over year numbers are not important now because they do not look so hot and you can not compare a “private” GM to a “Government owned” GM now, let’s ask the question:

http://johngaltfla.com/blog3/2009/11/04/if-you-fall-into-a-100-ft-deep-well-and-climb-up-5-ft-are-you-saved/

[Maya]

but but the expectation was only Climbing up 3 ft and our results are better than expected results

[cz]

but but the expectation was only Climbing up 3 ft and our results are better than expected results

If you throw another couple million unemployed people down, I might be able to get another few feet even...

[jcs44]

but but the expectation was only Climbing up 3 ft and our results are better than expected results

That is scary. I was going to post its awesome if Wall St. only expected you to have climbed up 3 ft. Groupthink is real.  

[Bill from Pennsylvania]

well the September crash in sales after the cash for dealers bonanza was so steep that October is going to look better  no matter what. 
Its like throwing a pebble in a pond and watching the ripples.  Wow, sales climbed!!! (C4C) -------- Damn, sales extremely down!! (month after C4C) ----- Wow, sales recovered from extreme low!! (...  )

[picasso moon]

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ism-fallacy
Pointed out yesterday that GM's "better than expected" result (which it forecast before the numbers came out) can be explained by GM's own version of Cash for Clunkers,

[Rival]

The correct analogy would be:

If you fell out of an airplane and after a few minutes your rate of descent declined 5%, would you really be any better off?

All you did was buy a little time, nothing more.

[PseudoPhil]

Or to extend the well analogy:

If you fell into a well 1000 feet deep, and landed on a ledge 100 feet down, you might consider yourself "saved", despite the fact that you are mortally injured and have no way of climbing the other 95 feet back to the "surface" after you've made what little progress you are able to make. You're not dead yet, and there's always the chance that somebody will come along and rescue you.

But the situation is not promising...

[ArmaGoof]

If you fell out of an airplane and after a few minutes your rate of descent declined 5%, would you really be any better off?

A decline in the rate of descent would require the mass of the planet to be shrinking to the point of effecting the pull of gravity.  In an economic sense, as you run out of money, your approach to $0 slows to ever smaller real numbers, i.e. half the distance to the goal line.  Money, job losses and the quality of life in general will decline at ever decreasing rates as they approach the bottom.  Consequently, the spinners will always be able to say that things are slowing down less quickly.

[Rival]

If you fell out of an airplane and after a few minutes your rate of descent declined 5%, would you really be any better off?

A decline in the rate of descent would require the mass of the planet to be shrinking to the point of effecting the pull of gravity.  In an economic sense, as you run out of money, your approach to $0 slows to ever smaller real numbers, i.e. half the distance to the goal line.  Money, job losses and the quality of life in general will decline at ever decreasing rates as they approach the bottom.  Consequently, the spinners will always be able to say that things are slowing down less quickly.

Bingo.

[hillwalker]

If you fell out of an airplane and after a few minutes your rate of descent declined 5%, would you really be any better off?

A decline in the rate of descent would require the mass of the planet to be shrinking to the point of effecting the pull of gravity.  In an economic sense, as you run out of money, your approach to $0 slows to ever smaller real numbers, i.e. half the distance to the goal line.  Money, job losses and the quality of life in general will decline at ever decreasing rates as they approach the bottom.  Consequently, the spinners will always be able to say that things are slowing down less quickly.

Okay,
So you fall out of an airplane, and accelerate at a rate of 1G, 10 meters per sec, per sec. Looks bad, then you reach a terminal
velocity, and by spreading out your arms and legs and thrusting your pelvis forward, 'assuming the position'. you drop your rate of fall to somewhere in the neighborhood of 120 mph.

Are you better off? Or are you still in fact falling even though you are no longer accelerating.