Ukraine flu(?) outbreak - viral pneumonia - quarantines

[Broil]

From Dr Niman:

D225G in Fatal H1N1 Lung Cases in Norway and Ukraine
Recombinomics Commentary 16:05
November 20, 2009


WHO says same mutation (at 222 on the HA) seen elsewhere, sometimes in fatal, other times in mild cases. Signifi of change unclear.

The above comment from a Helen Branswell tweet indicates the polymorphism in Norway is position 222, which would correspond to position 225 using H3 numbering.

Although there have been examples of D225N, D225E, and D225G, the recently released sequences from Ukraine were D225G and associated with fatal lung infections and D225G is clearly "in play", using recombination to jump from background to background in Brazil, Australia, China, Spain, Japan, and Russia.

Therefore, the "mutation" in Norway is also almost certainly D225G.   http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11200905/D225G_Norway_Ukraine.html

[rocketgirl]

Well here it goes.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOmu2OhTzQ0 (External Embedding Disabled)

The bombshell comes at 9:50

[goodraven]

Two Shoes Dropping http://flutracker.rhizalabs.com/

"Many had asked why the WHO was dragging its feet on Ukraine and I had said they had two major problems. One was "mutation" and the other was Tamiflu resistance and both were happening when deaths were climbing and vaccine was is short supply. Therefore, they would try to keep those two shoes from dropping for as long as possible.

Now both shoes have dropped. The D225G in Ukraine was disclosed, followed by Norway, so the "mutation" shoe has dropped, and now the clsuters of Tamiflu resistance in the UK and NC have come out, so the other shoe has dropped.

Most of the world is as lost as ever. Media hasn't yet figured out that the same "mutation" is in Ukraine and Norway (and worldwide), and they also haven't figured out that the cat was out of the bag on Tamiflu resistance.

In both cases, agencies are still trying to spin "spontaneous mutation" and lack of spread, but those dogs won't hunt.

A vaccine panic is next, followed by real panic."

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman

[Echo]

I'm sorry to be an ignoramus but i dont understand genetics and i'm completely confused about whats happening here. Can someone put it into plain English and explain the impact to those of us outside the poor buggers in the Ukraine?

[NYLongBow]

"D225G was in the New York 1918 isolate and the London 1919 isolate, so it was probably right about now that the switch emerged in 1918."

This is a quote from Niman

So, does this mean it will emerge like 1918? Nobody is willing to predict. But it appears from everything I have read, listened to and read some more. that the possibility now exists. At least the players are all on the stage.

[theozarker]

I'm sorry to be an ignoramus but i dont understand genetics and i'm completely confused about whats happening here. Can someone put it into plain English and explain the impact to those of us outside the poor buggers in the Ukraine?

The mutation in the 225 amino acid to D225G seems to confer on the virus an affinity for the lower respiratory system (lungs) rather than the upper respiratory system (throat or bronchi) where flu usually tends to lodge.

Also, earlier, the mutation had been staying within the genetic community in which it was found (ie, Chinese, Brazilian and so forth.  (In other words, it appeared as a small number of spontaneous mutations within that local genetic community it appeared in.)  What he is afraid of (and what the CDC says isn't happening so far) is that finding it in other genetic communities so far from each other might mean it has mutated to a form of D225G that more easily crosses those genetic boundaries and presumably would spread that mutation, with its affinity for lung tissue, more easily.

Anyone have anything else that explains it better?

Linda

[Broil]

I'm sorry to be an ignoramus but i dont understand genetics and i'm completely confused about whats happening here. Can someone put it into plain English and explain the impact to those of us outside the poor buggers in the Ukraine?

It's a relatively small mutation that might possibly lead to somewhat more fatalities, it's been occurring in pockets around the world without spreading a lot, but it doesn't look to me like it's on the level of Spanish Flu virulence.

Here's the latest from the WHO today on Norway: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/notes/briefing_20091120/en/index.html

[theozarker]

Thanks for  the link, broil.

Linda

[pamela]

just heard this on the radio, but 4 cases of tamiflu resistant swine flu have turned up in a North Carolina hospital. Just heard it and that's all they said. will try and find a link.

[pamela]

here's is one. there were several other articles about it too. do a google news search.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2009-11-20-drug-resistant-swineflu_N.htm

[ninakat]

here's is one. there were several other articles about it too. do a google news search.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2009-11-20-drug-resistant-swineflu_N.htm

Thanks, I guess. That's kinda close.... I'm not far from Duke University Medical Center.

[Jackson]

Niman hasn't been wrong yet...been watching him since Mexico..the Ukraine thing really got him fired up...he thinks we are headed head on into 1918..that's what I'm reading into his remarks....he is getting bolder now with his comments....and i think he knows he called it .... It is my prediction he will start to really speak out.
I have some problems with niman..with his calling everyone a whachadoodle...but I believe he does that only to pull attention back to him...his ego ..but the man egotistical as he appears to me..is worth watching now 

[Broil]

He's gone way overboard in the past on calling for imminent doom, Jackson, especially with bird flu and SARS (although SARS was a very real problem, they only managed to head that off with some serious quarantines - iirc the Chinese army even had to shoot into crowds that were freaking out because of it.)

He's definitely been wrong many times but seems to have controlled his innate doomerism better with swine flu.

[TechGuy]

He's gone way overboard in the past on calling for imminent doom, Jackson, especially with bird flu and SARS (although SARS was a very real problem, they only managed to head that off with some serious quarantines - iirc the Chinese army even had to shoot into crowds that were freaking out because of it.)

He's definitely been wrong many times but seems to have controlled his innate doomerism better with swine flu.

Does anyone know what the death toll and hospitalization counts are in the Ukraine today? On Thurs day it was about 385 Dead, and over 78K hospitalized.

[rocketgirl]

He's gone way overboard in the past on calling for imminent doom, Jackson, especially with bird flu and SARS (although SARS was a very real problem, they only managed to head that off with some serious quarantines - iirc the Chinese army even had to shoot into crowds that were freaking out because of it.)

He's definitely been wrong many times but seems to have controlled his innate doomerism better with swine flu.

Could it be that perhaps he wouldn't have been doomer enough if bird flu and SARS had begun to circle the globe?  Maybe he only seems too doomish in hindsight because we all dodged the bullet and actually he may have been criticized for Not giving enough warning if there were bodies piling up in the streets.  Kind of like PO and the responses we all get when trying to tell our families and neighbors but when TSHTF I'm sure plenty will be pissed for Someone not telling them.  All along the evidence is there if you just ask and question.