Ukraine flu(?) outbreak - viral pneumonia - quarantines

[DNVRLIZ]

There is no way 1918 could NOT have been an accident.  No one even knew what caused influenza back then.  How could anyone hope to control and use it?  Viruses weren't identified until the 1930s. 
[/quote
 I wouldn't be so sure of that.At the risk of being moved to the tinfoil section, I have read a report that an English scientist was experimenting with trying to use `flu as a weapon to break the deadlock of trench warfare as early as 1916/17.This was supposedly at the American military base of Fort Derick? I'm not sure of the spelling, but its the one that later became synominous with bio warfare research.The pandemic did not originate in Spain, it was only called the Spanish Flu because their newspapers were not wartime censored and they reported it openly.In fact some of the first soldiers to exhibit symptoms were newly arrived  American servicemen whose base of departure was, you guessed it, Fort Derick.American soldiers were hit very hard by the illness,  sustaining more fatality's to the disease than they did in battle.What is not in question is that total fatality's (in Europe) for the pandemic peaked in November 1918, coincidentally when the Armistice  was signed, thus ending the war very abruptly.The British high command had plans for large attacks to start in 1919 even 1920. I have read a lot about the 1918/19 flue pandemic and if this Ukraine sickness is a variant of that one, then this is very,very serious and bears carefull watching.Personally I am checking this thread daily.

According to John Barry in his book, 'Influenza,' the "Spanish" flu was traced back to a pig farm in Kansas.  A pig farm that was RIGHT NEXT to a military base.  And what we are TOLD and what the TRUTH is, concerning what our governments know and have EVER known, is a gap as wide as the Pacific Ocean.

21/10/2009
An outbreak of African swine fever has been recorded in the Leningrad region. According to the News Agency, this was informed by the Federal Leningrad Interregional Veterinary Laboratory on 17 Oct 2009. According to the information, 8 out of 14 pigs in the farm of the military unit 11115 of the Defense Ministry, located in the town of Mga Kirov district, died some time ago from an unknown reason. Tissue samples of the dead animals were sent for investigation to the All-Russia Research Institute of Veterinary Virology and Microbiology in the city Vladimir [Federal Governmental Institute, Centre for Animal Health, Vladimir, Yur'evets, Russia]. From there, it is concluded that the pigs died of African swine fever. The remaining 6 animals were killed, their corpses and remains burned. Quarantine measures have been applied. According to preliminary data, the outbreak is the result of recycled swine waste, derived from pork meat imported to the military unit of the Southern Federal District.


Situation Update No. 1
On 23.10.2009 at 03:14 GMT+2
The devastating pig disease known as African swine fever (ASF) has now been found in northwest Russia, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has reported today. The latest outbreak of ASF - which cannot be transmitted to humans - was found near the city of St. Petersburg on 20 October, jumping 2,000 kilometres from southern Russia. The spread has confirmed the worst fears of FAO experts who have been tracking the disease in Georgia and neighbouring nations for several years. “Although we have known that the virus has been circulating in the Caucasus - in Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan - for several years now, eventually spreading to southern Russia, it is its sudden appearance far away near the Baltic coast that is worrying,” said Juan Lubroth, the agency’s Chief Veterinary Officer. The danger now is that ASF could spread to other regions, including the European Union, Eastern Europe, countries in the Black Sea basin and even Central Asia and China, which has the world’s largest pig population. It can be transported over wider geographic areas through the movement of infected swine or contaminated pork products, FAO said.

Although Muslim populations do not consume pork, Iran, Turkey and Central Asia could act as a transit point for ASF due to the large numbers of wild boar in these areas. “In light of this outbreak, FAO is advising countries to be vigilant and roll out their early detection and response plans,” Mr Lubroth said. The virus is believed to have first entered into the Caucasus through the Black Sea port of Poti in Georgia, where garbage from a ship was taken to a local dump where pigs feed. In sub-Saharan Africa, ASF is spread through warthogs and other wild pig species, and can also be transmitted by a particular type of tick. The disease existed for decades in the Iberian Peninsula until it was eradicated in the late 1990s. There is no vaccine against ASF currently, and the FAO issued a call for laboratories in the United States, Europe and Russia to reinvigorate efforts to develop an effective immunization. The disease is eliminated by culling infected animals and strict movement control.


Situation Update No. 2
On 01.11.2009 at 03:27 GMT+2
The spread of African Swine Fever in Russia has United Nations officials worried that the virus could eventually jump into Europe, central Asia and possibly China, according to a memo the U.S. Meat Export Federation issued to its members. Concerns emerged after the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization reported detection of ASF near St. Petersberg, Russia, a red flag since the disease for the past several years reportedly had been confined to the Caucasus region of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan and neighboring areas of southern Russia. St. Petersburg is more than 1,200 miles to the north and west of this region. Although not a threat to human health, ASF can be extremely deadly in swine. The virus is believed to have killed about 6,000 pigs during the first half of 2009 and forced the culling of about 42,000 additional pigs. "If recent ASF outbreaks in Russia are as widespread as available information indicates, they could represent a significant setback to Russia's goal of attaining self-sufficiency in pork production," USMEF said. As no vaccine for ASF exists, countries are being told to up early detection and response efforts.


Source

African swine fever

[Hardondee]

@dasflo: how about a good bike for escaping to your doomstead. could be a good alternative if public transport goes down when TSHTF

I've thought about it. Doesn't strike me as a very safe way of travel in a shtf situation, but might be worth keeping in mind as a last resort option.
However, we are talking some serious distance in close to winter conditions, definitely a multi day trip. Might be hard to find shelter or even water without risking exposure. As I said, maybe something to do as a do or die effort.

You can travel a 125+ miles in a day, considering terrain and if you've got panniers.  How far is it to your family's doomstead?

[DNVRLIZ]

DONT KNOW IF THIS MEANS ANYTHING BUT THEY WERE WORKING ON THE FOLLOWING THINGS IN 2007.

US funds work on drugs for plague, tularemia, anthrax

Oct 16, 2007 (CIDRAP News) – The US government recently awarded contracts totaling about $34 million to two companies for development of drugs to treat pneumonic plague, tularemia, and anthrax, three of the diseases terrorists are deemed most likely to try to exploit.

[goodraven]

During Napoleon's Invasion of Russia, Cossacks were the Russian soldiers most feared by the French troops. Napoleon himself stated "Cossacks are the best light troops among all that exist. If I had them in my army, I would go through all the world with them."[12]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cossacks

sorry, couldn't resist.

meanwhile, nice work DNVRLIZ - lets hope those meds aren't being made by Baxter!

[goodraven]

lastest post by Niman:  http://flutracker.rhizalabs.com/

Swine H1N1 can cause a hemorrhagic disease, which has been descibed in many cases, including those in Ukraine. Similar disease was caused by the 1918 pandmeic strain, which also was H1N1 and of swine origin.

There have been no reports out of Ukraine that would point away from H1N1. The range of symptoms for H1N1 are quite broad. Some have no symptoms. Others have symptoms with no fever of low grade fever. My whole family has been infected with H1N1 (PCR confirmed in 2/4). All of our cases were mild. I had a low grade fever for less than 12 hours (I was PCR confirmed). My wife had no fever. One daughter (who was also PCR confirmed had a fever of 103 F). We all had coughs. Some had chills and night sweats. Some had a sore throat. Some had a headache. I believe one daught and I were reinfected about a month later.

Others of course have had much more severe disease. About 5% of those hospitalized in the US die. Many are young previously healthy adults with no underlying conditions.

H1N1 is widespread throughout the northern hemisphere. In the US absenteeism is high (up to 30-50%) and schools close because too many teachers and administrators are sick to keep the schools functioning. The same scenario is hapening in the Ukraine and other European countries.

H1N1 is called a pandemic for a reason, and appears to be taking a turn for the worse. Ukraine may be leading this change, but it is quite widespread and deaths are increasing in Europe, Asia, and North America.

The flu season has just started amd it is likely that most flu this season will be swine flu. There is NO seasonal flu circulting in the Ukraine or anywhere else in Europe, other than a few sporadic cases. In the US and Erurope, over 99% of infleunza A is swine flu.

guess, we'll just have to wait (in our bunkers) and see?

[Broil]

It's not time to hunker in the bunker quite yet, Goodraven.  The stories coming out of the Ukraine are similar to the stories that came out of Mexico, which later turned out to be greatly exaggerated.  So we don't know if there was maybe a backlog of deaths that weren't publicized until just recently.

WHO is supposed to figure it out by November 4, and then naturally they'll cover up whatever findings they have for a week or so, until someone leaks it to the press.

[goodraven]

Hey Broil - that one was meant to be funny

[LSU2001]

The latest post from Dr. Niman.  It seems that he may think that the virus has changed/mutated due to the numbers and concentration of the illness.
Tim

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11020902/Ukraine_Spike.html

Ukraine H1N1 Deaths and Hospitalizations Spike Higher
Recombinomics Commentary 21:54
November 2, 2009

255516 Influenza/ARI
15810 Hospital Admissions
235 Intensive Care
70 deaths

The above numbers reflect the latest government update on cases in the Ukraine.  They are dramatically higher than those reported in the past few days and raise concerns that the death toll will increase significantly over the next several days.

Some wire service reports and comments from WHO have downplayed these numbers, noting that the death rate for Ukraine is similar to other countries in Europe.  However, the deaths in the other countries accumulated over the entire pandemic flu season, while the deaths in the Ukraine were in the past few weeks, with most cases reported in the past few days.

About 5% of patients admitted with H1N1 infections have died in other countries, so that rate in the patients currently hospitalized would increase the deaths in Ukraine 10 fold, which would be markedly higher than any other European country.  Moreover, the vast majority of the cases, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths are in three Oblasts in western Ukraine. Lviv, Ternopil, and Ivano-Frankivsk (see map).

This concentration of H1N1, including serious and fatal cases, raises concerns that the virus in this region has changed.  Samples have been sent to London for analysis and prompt release of that data would be useful.

[goodraven]

the deaths in the Ukraine were in the past few weeks, with most cases reported in the past few days.

so this strain (whatever) has been around for a few weeks already? - they have airports there? buses? trains? etc.,.

Bunkers Broil?   

[Broil]

Well, like I said, it seemed like something terrible was happening at the beginning in Mexico.  Considering how close-lipped officials are in that part of the world, the deaths could have been kept quiet for a long time, until someone figured out that it might be good for foriegn aid.

I don't know, I think it probably is a more dangerous mutation, but I think we'll need another week or so to find out for sure.

Did anyone mention that one of the worst outbreaks was, ironically enough, at a conference to discuss communicable diseases?  And that a large number of them got quite sick, and then returned to various nations around the world?  Heh.

[Broil]

Oooops, mistake.  Law students.  This was probably already posted, since it's on Niman's site and PFI also.

Hospitalized Students at Romanian Convention Raise Concerns
Recombinomics Commentary 07:22
November 2, 2009


A hotel in the mountain resort of Sinaia was closed Sunday after 40 Romanian and foreign law students meeting for a conference caught swine flu, officials said.

Health state secretary Adrian Streinu-Cercel said 40 people were hospitalized Sunday at the Matei Bals Institute for Infectious Diseases in Bucharest, suffering from medium to severe forms of the flu.

The hospitalization of 40 students in Romania (see map) with medium to severe forms of H1N1 raises concerns.  Although outbreaks of H1N1 among students are common, hospitalization of 40 at a conference is not, especially when they have medium to severe forms of the flu.

The conference was attended by 240 students from 31 countries, so hospitalization of 40 represents a high attack rate, which was seen in Ukraine, where over 7383 have been hospitalized (see table).  In the United States about 5% of hospitalized H1N1 patients die, so these high numbers raise concerns that the death rates in these countries will climb sharply in the upcoming days or weeks.

WHO has sent a team to Ukraine to investigate, and samples have been sent to London for analysis.  Sequence data from both outbreaks would be useful.

The sudden rise in fatal and hospitalized patients across the northern hemisphere in general and Eastern Europe in particular, raises concerns.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11020901/Romania_Convention.html

[princip]

I don't know how relevent this may be, but I will put it out there and you can make of it what you will.Back in 1918/19 the residents of a remote and poor small town in the states asked their doctor
what they should do if the `flu got to the town.The very elderly doctor told them that at the first signs of feeling sick they were to go to bed and take a bottle of whiskey with them.They were to drink the whiskey, and keep drinking it until the room `begins to spin`.They were then to stay in bed and not get up until they felt better.The local who told this story said that the epidemic did reach the town and although a lot of people caught the `flu, no one that he heard of died of it.
 I am not saying that all the people who survived the illness drank the whiskey and had this to thank for their survival, but I am sure that many would have taken the doctors advice, simply because that was all that was on offer, and whiskey (moonshine) was readily available.
 We now know that alcohol taken in substantial amounts suppresses the body's auto-immune system, we also now know it was the body's own defense system that made this disease so deadly  to the young and the healthy in that pandemic.It may be that the old doctor was onto something, all those years ago.

[beast2000]

to lighten up the discussion, there is a Seinfeld quote for everything:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzLtF_PxbYw (External Embedding Disabled)

[FilterFeeder]

Well, like I said, it seemed like something terrible was happening at the beginning in Mexico

I agree - we had some quite hysterical reports coming out of Mexico in the beginning about people dropping like flies and the morgues full. It was all BS, or possibly deliberate disinformation. In the Ukrainian case we have even less information. No one seems to be able to definitively say what the vector of this wave of illness is.

Possible scenarios for Ukrainian outbreak:

• Normal Swine Flu hitting hard as the winter comes on in a temperate low income country, with some hysteria and exaggeration thrown in
• A Swine Flu mutation to a new variant which is more aggressive.
• A new virus or bacterium - possibly a bioweapon.
  

Personally, I'm most worried about some variant of haemorrhagic fever - I'm pretty sure that the Black Death was a viral haemorrhagic fever and nothing to do with yersinia pestis at all:

http://www.filterfeeder.eu/filter_feeder/Blog/Entries/2008/8/10_Plague!.html

[john940]

my inlaws told us yesterday that slovakia (where they live) have begun closing the border between the Ukraine (to the east of Slovakia) and Slovakia to prevent transmission. There is a lot of fear there because in the East of Slovakia where the Ukraine border is there are a lot of Roma (gypsy) people and they are already in a failed state of health and lack proper care. If they do get ill they will most likely be transmitting it and not even know they need to seek care or what it even is.

Despite closing of the border i think that what can get through probably already has and is evolving at this time. Soon they will find out perhaps.

We have our Summer house near the Carpatians and near north central Slovakia and the population in the town is a lot more isolated. Its an old town and people just dont travel much so it might be relatively safe. Its also out of the way for most travellers so we'll see if it gets there. Anything can happen.