Ukraine flu(?) outbreak - viral pneumonia - quarantines

[rocketgirl]

Is there anything here in these quotes about me? No? I'm not interested.

Sorry Grower, I think we're just trying to break some tension.  Thread drift I know but beast2000 did a great job of keeping it swine related 

@beast2000= Regifter

[Grower]

No, no, no. It's my favorite quote from Seinfeld!

"Is there anything in this story about me? No? I'm not interested."

[rocketgirl]

No, no, no. It's my favorite quote from Seinfeld!

"Is there anything in this story about me? No? I'm not interested."

I didn't know that one (slapping hand on forehead now).


The show about nothing 

[MEA]

I don't know how relevent this may be, but I will put it out there and you can make of it what you will.Back in 1918/19 the residents of a remote and poor small town in the states asked their doctor
what they should do if the `flu got to the town.The very elderly doctor told them that at the first signs of feeling sick they were to go to bed and take a bottle of whiskey with them.They were to drink the whiskey, and keep drinking it until the room `begins to spin`.They were then to stay in bed and not get up until they felt better.The local who told this story said that the epidemic did reach the town and although a lot of people caught the `flu, no one that he heard of died of it.
 I am not saying that all the people who survived the illness drank the whiskey and had this to thank for their survival, but I am sure that many would have taken the doctors advice, simply because that was all that was on offer, and whiskey (moonshine) was readily available.
 We now know that alcohol taken in substantial amounts suppresses the body's auto-immune system, we also now know it was the body's own defense system that made this disease so deadly  to the young and the healthy in that pandemic.It may be that the old doctor was onto something, all those years ago.

actually, that's not a bad idea. It was mentioned in the big flu thread how people consuming alcohol did better with the flu than others possible because the alcohol killed off some of the virus before it could take hold.

And if you asre passed out, you aren't out spreading your germs.

[kathleen]

No, no, no. It's my favorite quote from Seinfeld!

"Is there anything in this story about me? No? I'm not interested."

I didn't know that one (slapping hand on forehead now).

The show about nothing 

You guys are killing me 


There's a poster named serenity now, but they never seem to post much. I wish they would.

[roccman]

Mods - spill aisle three...

Really - stay on topic.

Calling Lady T!!

[Broil]

Mods - spill aisle three...

Really - stay on topic.

Calling Lady T!!

She only moderates the main swine thread, but even so maybe someone could start a Seinfeld thread in Off Topic and Humor, I love humor but this subject is pretty important to me.

[kathleen]

It is important, but I think (weirdly enough) there is a lack of new information about this situation.
In all seriousness, has anyone found anything with much of an update? I've found articles with today's date, but they are pretty much rehashes of the stuff from a couple of days ago.

[beast2000]

It is important, but I think (weirdly enough) there is a lack of new information about this situation.
In all seriousness, has anyone found anything with much of an update? I've found articles with today's date, but they are pretty much rehashes of the stuff from a couple of days ago.

there are some new stories, however, we don't know whether this is a reliable source:
http://www.stevequayle.com/News.alert/09_Disease/091104.plague.eyewitness.html

could be fake

p.s. the propaganda for the flu shot has been ramped up recently by some german newspapers.

[pamela]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-11/05/content_12387790.htm

    KIEV, Nov. 4 (Xinhua) -- Ukraine's deadly flu outbreak widened,86 people have died from flu and respiratory infections, the Health Ministry said on Wednesday.

[rocketgirl]

This thread is important to me too but I knew it'd be days before results were in so at least we kept the thread on page 1.

[LSU2001]

More from Dr. Niman on the Ukraine situation.
Tim


Clusters of Hemorrhagic H1N1 Pneumonia in Ukraine
Recombinomics Commentary 11:54
November 4, 2009

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11040901/Ukraine_Hemor_Clusters.html

Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast

All the six dead young people had symptoms of severe hemmorhagic pneumonia. The disease starts slowly, with temperature rising to 37.2 - 37.3 degrees, slight cough and pain in joints. Nasal catarrh developed at the end of the second or third day. Autopsy revealed that the lungs were soaked with blood, the oblast chief specialist said.

The above comments are from an early story describing cases in Ukraine.  The clustering of hemorrhagic cases raised concerns.  The concern was increased by anecdotal reports citing a high frequency of such cases in Lviv (see map).  The recent WHO announcement that they were initially focusing of severe acute respiratory illness in Lviv also increased concerns.

Hemorrhagic pneumonia was also observed in the 1918 pandemic and was thought to be linked to cytokine storm. Consequently, those with robust immune systems (previously health young adults) disproportionately died, which has also been seen in the current outbreak (Mexico, US, and worldwide).  However, the cases in Ukraine appear to be clustered, raising concerns that the virus has changed.

However, the change may be minor, since the current H1N1 has produced the above symptoms in earlier cases.  More severe cases may be linked to a higher viral load, which could be linked to minor genetic changes, or simply due to concentration of virus in schools.  In the US the spread of the virus has been linked to school openings, which lead to an explosion of cases and subsequent student deaths.  However, now there are increases in fatalities in teachers and administrators, increasing concerns worldwide.

In Ukraine, weather changes and heating issues may have led to a surge in cases, and increased concentrations of virus could have produced conditions favoring high viral loads and increased cytokine storms.

Samples have been sent to Mill Hill, and sequence data should be released shortly.  Similarly, investigations on hemorrhagic pneumonia in lviv should help resolve the mechanism for the high concentration of such cases in western Ukraine.

However, H1N1 spread in Kiev has been noted, and other countries such as Belarus have announced additional H1N1 suspect or confirmed fatalities.

Sequence analysis of these cases and an update on the frequency of hemorrhagic pneumonia in Ukraine and worldwide would be useful.



Reported Cases in Ukraine Double in Two Days
Recombinomics Commentary 14:34
November 4, 2009
478,456  Influenza/ARI

24,003  Hospitalized

60  Ventilators

81 Deaths

The above numbers are from the latest update from Ukraine.  The number of infected patients has almost doubled to just under ½ million, compared to the report two days ago (see map).  Hospitalized patients also have spiked higher, to 24K from 15K.  ICU cases are not listed, but 60 on ventilators are.  However, most (37) of those on ventilators are Chernivisti Oblast, but Lviv, which has the most fatalities and cases, has none, suggesting the data is incomplete or there are significant shortages of ventilators.  The number of dead has risen to 81, but media reports describe additional fatalities, include those in the Kiev Oblast.

The explosion of cases again raises concerns that the number of fatalities is significantly higher than the 81 listed.  Media reports have described an equal number of pneumonia fatalities which were not considered flu related.  The basis of these exclusions remains unclear.  Similarly, anecdotal reports suggest the number of fatalities is markedly higher than the 81 in the table.

The rapid rise in reported infections, hospitalizations, and deaths in the past few days raise concerns that the virus is transmitting very efficiently.  Spikes in cases have been reported throughout the northern hemisphere, but the spike in fatalities and the frequency in hemorrhagic cases in Ukraine have raised concerns.

Earlier media reports suggest that an update by WHO might be issued today and include preliminary analysis of samples sent to Mill Hill in London.

Daily updates on the rapidly evolving situation in Ukraine, including sequence analysis, would be useful.

[FilterFeeder]

Reported Cases in Ukraine Double in Two Days
Recombinomics Commentary 14:34
November 4, 2009
478,456  Influenza/ARI

24,003  Hospitalized

60  Ventilators

81 Deaths

Looks like a busy winter to be a nurse...

[Broil]

OK, here's an update on the Ukrainian situation from WHO.  Chances are if there's been a deadly mutation, they'll sit on that part of the news for a few days while running around in circles tearing their hair out:

printable version

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Ukraine - update 1
3 November 2009 -- According to the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the country has now recorded more than 250 000 cases of influenza-like illness, with 235 patients requiring intensive care. As of 2 November, 70 deaths from acute respiratory illness have been reported.

Regions in western Ukraine continue to show the highest rates of acute respiratory illness/influenza-like illness. The level of activity in the Kyiv area is also increasing rapidly.

Laboratory testing in Ukraine has confirmed pandemic H1N1 influenza virus in samples taken from patients in two of the most affected regions. As the pandemic virus has rapidly become the dominant influenza strain worldwide, it can be assumed that most cases of influenza in Ukraine are caused by the H1N1 virus.

As elsewhere, WHO strongly recommends early treatment with the antiviral drugs, oseltamivir or zanamivir, for patients who meet treatment criteria, even in the absence of a positive laboratory test confirming H1N1 infection.


Related links

Recommended use of antivirals

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009



 


At the request of the government, a multi-disciplinary team of nine experts has been deployed by WHO and arrived in Kyiv yesterday evening. Discussions with the Minister of Health were held this morning to brief the team.

Team members will now begin field investigations to characterize the clinical and epidemiological features of the outbreak. Work will initially begin in Lviv region, where reported numbers of cases showing severe manifestations of acute respiratory illness have been especially high. Two virologists on the team have started working at the National Influenza Centre and the laboratories of the Central Sanitary and Epidemiological Station in Kyiv to provide diagnostic support.

Samples sent by the Ministry of Health were received today by the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Mill Hill in London, UK. The laboratory will conduct confirmatory tests and further characterize the virus.

Many questions remain to be answered. The outbreak in Ukraine may be indicative of how the virus can behave in the northern hemisphere during the winter season, particularly in health care settings typically found in Eastern Europe.

Given the potential significance of this outbreak as an early warning signal, WHO commends the government of Ukraine for its transparent reporting and open sharing of samples.

WHO continues to recommend no closing of borders and no restrictions on international travel, including to Ukraine. Experience shows that such measures will not stop further spread of the virus.  http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_03/en/index.html

[Broil]

From article:      http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aho.pJfVAysE&pos=9

“There are a lot of unknowns,” he said. The crew of experts will collect samples from patients and send them to the WHO’s influenza collaborating center in London for diagnosis. The WHO may have more information on Nov. 4, Hartl said.

Here's an interesting tidbit from that article: "Garlic and lemons, also used as a flu remedy, are now scarce in the town of Cherasky, in central Ukraine. The price of a kilogram (2.2 pounds) of lemons there has quadrupled to 50 hryvnia ($6.10) in the past week. "