IEA report warns of shortages

[Seahorse]

The International Energy Agency was formed as a result of the 1970s oil crisis to, among other things, monitor the world's oil supplies and warn and help mitigate a future crisis.  For years, it always gave glowing reports.  In 2008, it issued a "dire warning" based on its analysis of the world's top 500 fields.

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/48582

IEA press release here:

http://www.iea.org/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=275

Buy the report here:

http://blog.cleantechies.com/2008/11/12/iea-releases-its-2008-world-energy-outlook-report/

IEA dire warning, video:

http://watch.bnn.ca/special-presentations/brett-harris-reports/#clip112078

Though not new, I stickied this report bc it is an important work not easily located on this forum or elsewhere and gives a good overview of the problems facing world oil production.  So, for those new to PO that may visit this site, it makes some basic reading easy for them. 

[Manowar]

The prospect of accelerating declines in production at individual oilfields is adding to these uncertainties. The findings of an unprecedented field-by-field analysis of the historical production trends of 800 oilfields indicate that decline rates are likely to rise significantly in the long term, from an average of 6.7% today to 8.6% in 2030. “Despite all the attention that is given to demand growth, decline rates are actually a far more important determinant of investment needs. Even if oil demand was to remain flat to 2030, 45 mb/d of gross capacity – roughly four times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia – would need to be built by 2030 just to offset the effect of oilfield decline”, Mr. Tanaka added.

That's a nice part.

[anarchist]

The prospect of accelerating declines in production at individual oilfields is adding to these uncertainties. The findings of an unprecedented field-by-field analysis of the historical production trends of 800 oilfields indicate that decline rates are likely to rise significantly in the long term, from an average of 6.7% today to 8.6% in 2030. “Despite all the attention that is given to demand growth, decline rates are actually a far more important determinant of investment needs. Even if oil demand was to remain flat to 2030, 45 mb/d of gross capacity – roughly four times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia – would need to be built by 2030 just to offset the effect of oilfield decline”, Mr. Tanaka added.

That's a nice part.

the party is over!

[doctor zaius]

Nice find, Seahorse. Business News Network is a great TV station and website.

[everyman44]

I'll pledge $550.00 toward a "Kegger in the Rockies" if fellow doomers will travel to Summit County, Co. We could take over the Goat for a weekend get wasted and meet our favorite Doomers. I'm thinking Jan. $550.00 should cover half the beer we'd need.

I'm pretty sure I can get Megadoom up there. He's a ski nut.

[Ovis Suburbanus]

I'll pledge $550.00 toward a "Kegger in the Rockies" if fellow doomers will travel to Summit County, Co. We could take over the Goat for a weekend get wasted and meet our favorite Doomers. I'm thinking Jan. $550.00 should cover half the beer we'd need.

I'm pretty sure I can get Megadoom up there. He's a ski nut.

Now that is a very tempting idea...! Been to Summit Co. a few times just passing through.

[fred-windsor]

Looming oil crunch played down: IEA whistleblower

International Energy Agency accused of bowing to U.S. pressure
A whistleblower at the International Energy Agency has accused the organization of deliberately underplaying the seriousness of a looming oil shortage

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2009/11/10/iea-whistleblower-accuses-agency-of-downplaying-oil-shortage.html

[Seahorse]

Head of IEA says end of cheap oil is here.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8353840.stm

[AntiSocialite]

Head of IEA says end of cheap oil is here.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8353840.stm

Did you notice that he expects volatility? Kinda goes along with the theory of lurching from crisis to crisis, with each successive increase in price destroying the economy that much further. He also hides behind China's booming auto market as an excuse for making his predictions. How many people in China are going to want a new car when the cost of fuel makes it undriveable?

[metaforge]

The Chinese will get a deal on it cuz they're buying up supply now.  Ain't communism great?   

[Seahorse]

Recent question and answer session with Fatih Birol, IEA Chief Economist.

http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2009/11/16/reader-qa-with-dr-fatih-birol-iea-chief-economist/

In this Q&A, he says they do not project peak oil before 2020 (keep in mind, this can't be that optimistic bc it's only 10 years away).  However, notice the caveats.  He says that conventional oil production has probably peaked.  He also says that oil production from non-opec countries to peak in "the next few years."  This must mean all oil production and not just conventional, bc he first said conventional oil production has probably peaked.  He then says that the difference between world demand and world oil production will have to be made up by Opec.  That's the question.  Samsam Bakhtiar (deceased), former head of the National Iranian Oil Company, disagreed.

 http://www.doomers.us/forum2/index.php/topic,55136.0.html

Sadad Al Husseini is the former head of Saudi Aramco's production and exploration, also disagrees with the IEA.

http://www.doomers.us/forum2/index.php/topic,55158.0.html

[Cycling in Hollywood]

How many people in China are going to want a new car when the cost of fuel makes it undriveable?

Most of them probably won't drive that much or that far compared to the average American, so I don't think they'll care nearly as much. Cars will still be desirable for Chinese even as the price of gas skyrockets.

[Seahorse]

I started another thread on the following article, but will include it here too:

FATIH BIROL, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA), believes that if no big new discoveries are made, “the output of conventional oil will peak in 2020 if oil demand grows on a business-as-usual basis.” Coming from the band of geologists and former oil-industry hands who believe that the world is facing an imminent shortage of oil, this would be unremarkable. But coming from the IEA, the source of closely watched annual predictions about world energy markets, it is a new and striking claim.

http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15065719

To understand the importance of this more pessimistic shift, understand who the IEA represents and the purpose of this organization, which has before been quite the optimist.  IEA wiki:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Energy_Agency

[gasman]

I started another thread on the following article, but will include it here too:

FATIH BIROL, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA), believes that if no big new discoveries are made, “the output of conventional oil will peak in 2020 if oil demand grows on a business-as-usual basis.” Coming from the band of geologists and former oil-industry hands who believe that the world is facing an imminent shortage of oil, this would be unremarkable. But coming from the IEA, the source of closely watched annual predictions about world energy markets, it is a new and striking claim.

http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15065719

To understand the importance of this more pessimistic shift, understand who the IEA represents and the purpose of this organization, which has before been quite the optimist.  IEA wiki:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Energy_Agency

Not to mention that coupled with what we know, attempts will be made to force production out of fields which may provide some temporarily relief at the cost of steeper declines a-la-Cantarell. This may tend to alter the shape of the curve, but with far more drastic results post peak.

[Megadoom]

The IEA is always late to the party. 2013 is under-estimating the problem. We'll see a crisis of epic proportions before 2013 that will cause all kinds of havoc to the global economy.

Bet on it.