I knew the economy was bad, but not this bad...(new sticky)

[Smoke~n~Mirrors]

-Long time lurker that rarely posts but this really shook me up.

I was having a conversation with my accountant/bookkeeper and confidentially she told me that out of the 600 or so businesses she works for at least half of them will be out of business in 6 months if the local economy stays like it is.

Most of those businesses are not housing related directly (not builders or contractors) just small local shops and restaurants and a few garages.

It looks like this over a good portion of the county I live in. (Rural western Mass here)

How is it in your neck of the woods.

[Skillet-Licker1]

Middle Tennessee - North Central Alabama here.

1.  I have noticed that the our local vehicle repair shop has layed off quite a few of their mechanics (BIL).  BUT, I have noticed the lights on and work going on even ~ 10pm at night.  The owner is now under the hood.

2.  McDonalds and Chinese buffet's are packed...Steak houses, nice restaurants still appear packed on a Friday-Sat night, but during the week....dead.

3.  My own CPA is still owed ~ 45% of the invoices submitted from 2008 taxes in April and extensions.  She asked if I would be willing to prepay for my 2009 taxes, if she cut the invoice by 30%.

4.  Non-violent Burglaries, according to our local paper, is up 74%.  Frankly, I have noticed quite a few new cars and trucks driving around our area, they drive slow, turn-around and leave.  This has been going on for ~ 3-6 months.  Now, when I see a vehicle I don't know, I pull over and look at them, hoping that they see I am looking at their license plate.

5.  It is rare to stop to fill up for gas, go in and get some gum, and not see someone filling out applications for employment.  Increasingly, most are middle age folks like me - not teenagers.  Occasionally I hear the complaints about the "low or few" number of hours the mgr gave them this week.

6.  You should see the number of expensive "zero turn" commercial lawn cutting equipment, trailers, trucks, etc. sitting in folks yards for sale.  They sit and sit.  I stopped by one selling a $10k zero-turn mower with only 400 hrs. on it.  This guy wanted 8.5k for it, and wouldn't budge.  Which really told me alot.

7.  I have noted that all have mobile phones and still text as if their life depended on it.  All things that matter stop....when a replay to a inbound text is on the table.   Good Grief.

[Ming]

My family's business (watch & jewelry repair) has been down slightly but still okay but every week more and more people come in saying they have been robbed. 

People are robbing for gold.  Police have been telling them to visit the pawn shops to look for it but they haven't found any.  The robbers no doubt are mailing it into those gold places which can't be traced for money.

I work in probably the nicest office building in our city, beautiful lake view.  There are tenants moving around to the smaller office suites and also some of the offices are being downsized, putting up walls and making 2 suites out of what used to be 1 for the tenants to save money.  The building manager said that would have never done that before but in today's economy half the rent is better than no rent.

[wordnerd]

I've noticed several individual restraunts have closed

[jtmo3]

The company I work for makes custom cabinets. I do all the computer stuff for them. For the last month to month and a half, we have stayed fairly level. Much lower than last year but enough to hold on. It hasn't gotten better but hasn't gotten worse.

I've talked to a couple other business owners that are hanging on also. They've told me before they would hang till the end of the year and if it hasn't gotten better, they might have to close shop. It sure seems from people I've talked to and others I've watched, that most are in wait and see mode. They're struggling but are going to hang on as long as they can. When that is, I don't know. This crap that they've done here to bloat the market is not helping much in the real economy. Just the fat cats on wall street are getting rich from it. The rest out here are hoping.

[swampman]

My CPA said that for the first time ever, he had to dip into his line of credit to keep his office open.  People still owe for their 2008 taxes and fees.  He said that he has been working with a lot of clients on an exit strategy including Chapter 13 and/or defaulting on their credit cards.

[Bill Hicks]

This fits with stories I've read about how a lot of business are desperately trying to hold on until the "recovery" begins.  It seems likely that if the Holiday shopping season is bad again we'll see a wave of business closings early in the New Year.

[Phildo]

This fits with stories I've read about how a lot of business are desperately trying to hold on until the "recovery" begins.  It seems likely that if the Holiday shopping season is bad again we'll see a wave of business closings early in the New Year.

Yeah it seems grossly unethical of the .gov Mathemagic Stats folks hyping a recovery to folks who could still make it out, but will instead hang on to the old days hoping they will return.

Sounds like telling folks to just wait "a day" at the Superdome.  Soon they will not be able to get out. 

Triple Whammy indicator I am looking for is:

1. First Time Home Buyer rebate ($8000 quick cash) allowed to expire without renewal or extension.  It is scheduled to end on 1 Dec, 2009.  After that, house prices may drop another $10K to $20K across the board for lack of the rebate. 

2.  Flat Christmas Sales -- there goes the rest of retail.

3.  Rising number of unemployed who can no longer be "customers" for the make-believe recovery.

Add that up and the downside risk gets pretty large. 

Keep in mind -- I AM NOT a Doomer, but this all looks pretty grim.

[jtmo3]

To your points:

#1: Do you really think they will let this expire? Not gonna happen. They will drag this out.

#2:Not so sure. It won't be as good as most years but I think they will work the numbers to say that it was better than last year, and after all, that's all that's needed, right?

#3: True. I know a guy I talked to today that worked for the same company I do. He was laid off 2 years ago this month. Except for a couple 1 to 2 month periods in that time, he has been collecting unemployment. FOR TWO YEARS! He said he's got another 3 months before it ends again and he's hoping for another extension. My point being that while unemployment is going up, many still have some money thanks to all the free handouts.

All we seem to be doing here is dragging this problem out, hoping that somehow, some freakin miracle will happen and things will just turn around. Now obviously, the people in charge are not that stupid. So, get your shit in order because within about 2 years, the lid will blow.

[golddust]

Retail is dead here. I went to the usual stores looking for a desk on a Friday night and there was no one else in these stores. I went to the mall on Thursday to go get something from JC Penny and the mall was nothing but a handful of teenagers that probably just got out of school. There were hardly any adults. Back over in my old upper class area with the rich people it's likely not too bad, but where I live now is a normal middle class area and you know they're feeling it.

[Pegasus]

Wife's friend at work was going to open a restaurant here in Utah.  She went to business school, got a grant for 60k and started talking to food suppliers.  All three of the major ones in the area said not no but hell no.  They said she'd be closing her doors in 6 months top.  They won't front her the food on credit because they know what will happen, she doesn't have enough capital to pay everyone up front what they want.  We're both glad though because we thought she was nuts to try and open a restaurant right now anyway, the food suppliers confirmed that its really bad.  I can imagine they're watching their customers eat shit left and right.

[mxr618]

My Mrs. works at a mall store. Thefts are up and they aren't allowed to bust the perps and prosecute. Moms with strollers steal stuff from another store, and return it to my Mrs.' store with out the receipt. They get in store credit where they buy stuff and then return it for cash with the receipt.

[Hope@ZeroKelvin]

Texas has been better off than most but we are starting to see the strip centers start to empty out, even in the "better" neighborhoods.

My ex is a lawyer turned cop (don't ask).  He tells me that home breakins are becoming more frequent as are smash-and-grabs for cars.  He tells me not to leave ANYTHING in sight in the car.

My business CPA also tells me that he thinks 40% of the businesses he audits will be out of business if the Xmas retail season is flat.  That means FLAT, not worse.  So if there is NO, xmas bounce, expect to see a lot of empty stores.

Hang on to your butts.  When Congress doesn't expand the jobless benefits anymore, the homes start the final foreclosure notices, yikes.

Hope your preps are going well.

[ReddDogg]

Central Ohio Here.  What I see:

#1)  My neighbor across the street from me has a small locksmith business that used to do very well, but fell off a cliff.  He shot himself in the head on Friday, but miraculously he is alive and might end up with some use of his brain when it is all said and done.  As for his business, I think it has already died, which is probably why he put a gun to his temple and pulled the trigger in the first place.

#2)  My company is down to just making payroll, and traditionally summer is our good season and winter is our bad season.  Our Accounts Receivable looks like we have assests, if only some people would fucking pay us.  Our work volume is down, but it is still good enough that if people pay us we will survive.  But if we don't get people to pay us, we might miss payroll and go out of business.  A couple of bad weeks in sales, and we are definately up shit crick.  We have already cut out any extra that can be cut, and any additional cuts is going to be getting rid of person A and replacing with person B making less money.  And since this company was never a pay leader, very little will be gained if they do this.

#3)  The few jobs that are hiring have hundreds if not thousands of qualified applicants.  Every single one.  Often there is no hiring signs at places like McDonalds and Speedway.  I am in the IT field, and there have been weeks where there have been 0 IT jobs of any kind.  It is rare that there is one in my area of expertise.  Online isn't much better.

#4)  I have seen plenty of businesses boarded up, as well was homes with for sale signs for more than a year.

This economy sucks really bad.  Those talking green shoots are on crack.

[nepenthean]

NW valley Phoenix


Restaurants packed on weekends but empty on weekdays. Lots of business at my local garage --but it is a garage devoted to BMWs, MB, porsche, etc. Ubiquitous sings of, "WE BUY GOLD'.

At the end of this month I will be working two full-time jobs. 32 hours/36.5 hours. I do not know how long I will be able to abide that schedule. I will as long as I can.

My LEO bro in law said the state tried to pay highway patrol with IOUs. They refused them. He said burlaries/home invasions have DRAMATICALLY increased, and this is a guy who is not given to hyperbole.