I knew the economy was bad, but not this bad...(new sticky)

[Bill Hicks]

All we seem to be doing here is dragging this problem out, hoping that somehow, some freaking miracle will happen and things will just turn around. Now obviously, the people in charge are not that stupid. So, get your shit in order because within about 2 years, the lid will blow.

Don't be too sure about that.  Greed and avarice motivates the ones in charge of the economy, while most of the politicians are arrogant and incompetent.  Together that is a deadly combination, but it explains the insane nature of the responses to the crisis.  They really do think that their "magic" will cause the "miracle" to happen.

I agree with you that in about two years civil society is going to start to melt down.  By then it will be apparent to most people that a recovery is not EVER coming.

[Hope@ZeroKelvin]

 

Don't be too sure about that.  Greed and avarice motivates the ones in charge of the economy, while most of the politicians are arrogant and incompetent.  Together that is a deadly combination, but it explains the insane nature of the responses to the crisis.  They really do think that their "magic" will cause the "miracle" to happen.

I agree with you that in about two years civil society is going to start to melt down.  By then it will be apparent to most people that a recovery is not EVER coming.

Do you think we even have 2 years?  I was figuring more on 6-12 months given the looming disaster in home and commercial real estate and the likely flat/negative xmas retail season.  Assuming no nuclear 9/11s or a stike on Iran.

[Bill Hicks]

Don't be too sure about that.  Greed and avarice motivates the ones in charge of the economy, while most of the politicians are arrogant and incompetent.  Together that is a deadly combination, but it explains the insane nature of the responses to the crisis.  They really do think that their "magic" will cause the "miracle" to happen.

I agree with you that in about two years civil society is going to start to melt down.  By then it will be apparent to most people that a recovery is not EVER coming.

Do you think we even have 2 years?  I was figuring more on 6-12 months given the looming disaster in home and commercial real estate and the likely flat/negative xmas retail season.  Assuming no nuclear 9/11s or a stike on Iran.

I base that estimate on the fact that there has been no real evidence of any kind of meltdown yet, more than one year after Wall Street blew up.  The masses are thoroughly numbed by the MSM, what Joe Bageant calls The American Hologram.  There is anger out there, but it is in no way organized, widespread or even clearly focused.  It's going to take time to build up to the point where it becomes a real threat to the stability of our society. 

[cabacaba]

We go to Laughlin ever so often and the last two times the casinos have been empty. The Aquarius shut down one of the two room towers. They lowered the brightness on the room TVs to save power. If you complain they will send a tech to turn it up (takes a special remote). The Aquarius has super buffets, Italian, seafood, and steak nights. Gosh, I hope they don't cut back on those. There is a prime rib place close by in another casino that is beyond belief. Huge portions... Another casino has all you can eat lobster (yum).
I love to eat and get my fill at Laughlin (making good memories for when the famine comes)...

My wife is the gambler. She is good at it. She usually makes expenses.. I don't gamble and sit in Starbucks with the laptop.... We hear Vegas is really bad. Casinos going under and some new ones have halted construction.. Vegas has lots of street people (homeless) and is not safe to walk around anymore... 

[haniel]

There is anger out there, but it is in no way organized, widespread or even clearly focused.  It's going to take time to build up to the point where it becomes a real threat to the stability of our society. 

One demagogue, one month, one hell of a party.....

[cabacaba]

Don't be too sure about that.  Greed and avarice motivates the ones in charge of the economy, while most of the politicians are arrogant and incompetent.  Together that is a deadly combination, but it explains the insane nature of the responses to the crisis.  They really do think that their "magic" will cause the "miracle" to happen.

I agree with you that in about two years civil society is going to start to melt down.  By then it will be apparent to most people that a recovery is not EVER coming.

Do you think we even have 2 years?  I was figuring more on 6-12 months given the looming disaster in home and commercial real estate and the likely flat/negative xmas retail season.  Assuming no nuclear 9/11s or a stike on Iran.

Looks like we may have only a little over a week before it all blows up..

http://www.stevequayle.com/News.alert/08_Hawk/091019.nukes.in.US.html

[kathyprepper]

I'm in rural major Western Mass as well and I know there are supposed to be massive cuts to social services in the next few months. I have a friend with a special needs child and her services for him have been cut to nothing. Even the special needs dental clinic with Tufts has been closed. As a lot of our economy out here is service oriented, it is no wonder that businesses are closing. If the social workers and clinicians aren't working, nobody is working.

[Jonathan_Byron]

Don't be too sure about that.  Greed and avarice motivates the ones in charge of the economy, while most of the politicians are arrogant and incompetent.  Together that is a deadly combination, but it explains the insane nature of the responses to the crisis.  They really do think that their "magic" will cause the "miracle" to happen.

I agree with you that in about two years civil society is going to start to melt down.  By then it will be apparent to most people that a recovery is not EVER coming.

Do you think we even have 2 years?  I was figuring more on 6-12 months given the looming disaster in home and commercial real estate and the likely flat/negative xmas retail season.  Assuming no nuclear 9/11s or a stike on Iran.

Good question. I don't know how fast things will get bad.  I think it depends on what 'start to melt down means' ... for some, the melt-down has already started.  

[Rival]

I should be an alchemist. Anyone who comes to my home looking for gold will only find lead.

[hacker]

In eastern MA, Boston suburbs, things are still mostly BAU. My employer, part of a global technology company, just hired three more hi-tech consultants for the New England region. I still get into arguments with people who think the economy is turning around.

[muletowntrooper]

One of the jobs that my company completed back in July, was for a small rural county in middle Tennessee.  My boss told me last week that they have not paid and he was told by some of the county officials that they don't have the money.  Don't know how this is gonna work out for him.  He has kept me paid though.

[golddust]

I should be an alchemist. Anyone who comes to my home looking for gold will only find lead.

  Love it!

[Smoke~n~Mirrors]

I'm in rural major Western Mass as well and I know there are supposed to be massive cuts to social services in the next few months. I have a friend with a special needs child and her services for him have been cut to nothing. Even the special needs dental clinic with Tufts has been closed. As a lot of our economy out here is service oriented, it is no wonder that businesses are closing. If the social workers and clinicians aren't working, nobody is working.

I understand oh too well the service cuts here.  At one time five of my largest customers (IT consulting) were not for profits.  Three have shut down the other two have no funds available to pay for this years services and will most likely not have funding next year.  I was hoping (silly thought as a doomer) that it was only the truly government dependant businesses that were doing badly.

[the_guy_with_the_gun]

Seattle area:

1) State saw it coming late, badly underestimated how bad it is going to be. They were, however, very ready when the road construction stimulus came out, so those jobs fared better this year than most other places. Those jobs are dead now and Christmas spending looks like maybe a last family trip, but more usually a gun and some ammo.

2) Counties didn't think it would happen. Most county services (jails, courts, planning, etc.) are flat hosed, taking 30% RIFs every month for the last three months... the best people are being pushed to the cities, but their price is dropping rapidly, 50% pay cuts are common.

3) Real estate is grinding down, and no one with enough brains to fill a teaspoon thinks it is coming back soon. Most CRE development is being topped off as-is, and will probably stand empty 1Q2010.

4) Local businesses are literally begging Boeing to open more production here. Open letters in the paper and radio ads. Its sad to see Microsoft and Amazon begging that way

5) Retail is dying in ways people here couldn't imagine. All of the malls north of Seattle are in default on their property, stores are closing, and nothing is replacing it. Its weird to go to a mall that just finished major construction 6 months ago and now has a 15% vacancy rate, with more coming when the Grinch grabs Christmas.

6) The Nouveau Riche are the getting ready to be the newly downsized.... everyone is effected, everyone is working side jobs, even if it is just slinging a little dope or walking the streets/hitting the bar for new 'friends' one or two nights a week. In theory, there may be enough brain-power and agricultural land available to run a seriously socialist, extremely strung out state. I'm not saying I think it will work out (what do we do with all the realtors? Shakespeare had lawyers, Seattle still has a nasty realtor problem ).

Nothing new to LATOC, but very new and fresh for many people in this corner of the globe. I'm guessing we will have some serious Soltace parties this year, and when the hangover wears off, major parts of greater Pugetropolis will be smoking rubble, but I've always been an optimist on this board

[ashmeadskernel]

Well, across the lake from Seattle, I found a little mall, used to be a good one, but my goodness, 2/3 of the shops were completely empty, dark, and shuttered!  The discount stores are packed.  I can't find canning lids, but I can find lots of plastic pumpkins!

And yet, my family continues to be completely oblivious and in denial.  It's obviously not collapse until they lose their job.