US Credit Markets Still Frozen: Big Trouble Ahead

[mtlouie]

All of them.  That's why they have children.  Sons, specifically.

The only one's that don't think about their kingdom after they die are the insane ones.

Anyway, my view is that oil doesn't matter to them because they have another energy source.

They honestly don't think they are going to have to worry about it.

I also think that's why they've dug all those underground cities and have all that seed saved.  When the time comes, they will disappear.  We will kill each other off, and they will return to.....whatever is left, I guess.

[plastixxman]

for the record, i have been researching the matter and without going into a long threadjack, i agree with louie here.

[Maya]

All of them.  That's why they have children.  Sons, specifically.

The only one's that don't think about their kingdom after they die are the insane ones.

Anyway, my view is that oil doesn't matter to them because they have another energy source.

They honestly don't think they are going to have to worry about it.

I also think that's why they've dug all those underground cities and have all that seed saved.  When the time comes, they will disappear.  We will kill each other off, and they will return to.....whatever is left, I guess.

I do not disagree with the underground cities etc.
Can a kingdom exist without slaves?  Can a religion exist without followers?
Isn't the death of a significant number of slaves also death of the kingdom?

How smart/intelligent is our TPTB?

[cz]

All of them.  That's why they have children.  Sons, specifically.

The only one's that don't think about their kingdom after they die are the insane ones.

Anyway, my view is that oil doesn't matter to them because they have another energy source.

They honestly don't think they are going to have to worry about it.

I also think that's why they've dug all those underground cities and have all that seed saved.  When the time comes, they will disappear.  We will kill each other off, and they will return to.....whatever is left, I guess.

I do not disagree with the underground cities etc.
Can a kingdom exist without slaves?  Can a religion exist without followers?
Isn't the death of a significant number of slaves also death of the kingdom?

How smart/intelligent is our TPTB?

A religion without followers is a belief.  You can believe slaughtering a goat on the big rock in your yard will bring rain and good crops.  That's a belief (personal).   When you can convince others to build you a temple with a stone altar, and bring you *their* goats to sacrifice on the altar, convinced that you (now the "priest") can bring them rain and good crops - then you have created a religion.

... of course, we've managed to create a worldwide religion of money...

[ralfy]

I'm not sure, but I think that's the only way banks can earn.

If I were a bank I would not be lending either. Sure it could be some conspiracy to kill millions of people.....(Retarded statement)....Sure it could be some mechanism with which the globalist elite are passing the torch to emerging markets (Possible)...but more than likely it is simply that because of the horrible default rates within the current economic reality....it is just bad for business

Bankers in general are not doomers...

[wiccawench]

All of them.  That's why they have children.  Sons, specifically.

The only one's that don't think about their kingdom after they die are the insane ones.

Anyway, my view is that oil doesn't matter to them because they have another energy source.

They honestly don't think they are going to have to worry about it.

I also think that's why they've dug all those underground cities and have all that seed saved.  When the time comes, they will disappear.  We will kill each other off, and they will return to.....whatever is left, I guess.

Agrees. It is the only THING that makes sense.

[justanouveaufarmer]

okay, but WHAT EXACTLY are they expecting to need UNDERGROUND shelters for? 

and how great can they expect their life to be with no workers/slaves/servants when they come out of their holes?

That's the part of the puzzle I'm missing here.

[funkyspec]

Here's the thing that doesn't make sense:  "They" have known for many, many ,many years about PO.  Probably since before Hubbert came up with his theory.

Why did they let the past thirty years happen?  Why all the buying, spending, SUVs, McMansions, etc.  if they are now doing a demand destruction to buy time?

It doesn't make sense.

Again!  Why did they let it get out of hand to begin with?  They've known about PO for a long, long, long time.

To come in now and say they are doing it to mitigate their losses, or save some for themselves, or whatever.

WHY did they go through a massive energy sink?  WHY?  I have asked that question many times and I've never heard a good answer.

Gail the Actuary over at the Oil Drum posted a speech given in 1957 by Hyman Rickover, the father of the US nuclear navy,  to a group of doctors. In the speech he describes fossil fuel peak and how if the US doesn't come up with alternative energy resources it will face economic collapse sometime between 2000-2050. He actually did something about that, leading the effort to develop and implement nuclear power in the US Navy. The Navy's nuclear power program is one of the safest and widely distributed in the world. He used to personally interview officers applying to serve on nuclear-powered ships. One of those officers was Jimmy Carter. Rickover later became an advisor to President Carter. Carter, like Rickover, was very peak oil-aware. I think he attempted to present 2 options to the country in how we would address peak oil:

1. Develop alternative energy sources within our own country, including nuclear power and renewables
2. Use American military power to ensure that US businesses, consumers, and government agencies have access to the world's largest oil reserves

It was more profitable for defense contractors and other US businesses (automobile industry for example) to go with option #2, and so the Carter Doctrine came into being. Reagan picked up the baton and began expanding the military (ostensibly to fight the Cold War) to make sure the US could secure Mid-East oil fields and ensure transport of oil to the US was safe.

The amazing US victory in Gulf War I gave the neo-cons the belief that the US military was invincible and could accomplish any mission. As the reality of peak oil came closer, it was decided that the oil reserves of Iraq (in addition to those of KSA and other Gulf States) would be needed to keep the American lifestyle going and American/trans-national corporations in business. Some of the neo-cons were peak oil aware (Dick Cheney), others only believed their own propaganda. 9/11 provided the necessary excuse to invade Iraq. The flaw in the plan of course is that the US military, while capable of putting ordnance on target anywhere on the globe, was not trained or ready to invade, occupy, and secure a place like Iraq.

That was Plan A to miitigate peak oil: use the US military to secure Mid-East oil reserves to keep the American "way of life" going and keep the elites atop the pyramid.

It probably became obvious to the peak oil-aware elites that Plan A was doomed sometime around 2004-05 with the growth of the Iraqi insurgency. They are now in the midst of implementing the far more draconian Plan B.

Plan B is a modification of Plan A in that it still involves the US military in overseas operations to secure energy reserves. However, there will be no effort made to support the "American way of life." Instead, the elites will loot the wealth of the vast majority of the US population (99%) forcing almost everyone into poverty. Harsh, oppressive draconian measures will be put in place and civil liberties will be greatly curtailed in order to maintain order. A "bread and circuses" series of programs will be ramped up as part of the effort to control the population. The elites will retreat to fortified green zones and do their best to maintain their current standard of living and rely on pure force to do so.

The chaotic times that will be happening within a year or two as government services collapse will be seized upon by the elites to implement the draconian measures just described in the name of providing security and food. Naomi Klein describes this phenomenon in "Shock Doctrine."  An elite-backed populist, extremist dictator (Kunstler's "corn pone Hitler") will emerge. America will morph into what oldhorseman has described in his Fedghetto post. Part of the country will be "inside," consisting of urban population centers, military bases, ports, and industrial ag land. The elites will have their fortified green zones within. The "inside" will be a totalitarian dictatorship with the elites at the top. Much of the country will be "outside." Government services will be withdrawn or simply disappear. There will be no large-scale political or economic structures. People and communities who choose to remain "outside" will have to eke an existence with no fossil fuels. Some parts of the outside will be violent and run by warlords. Other parts may be more egalitarian and free.

As to the question "Why the massive energy sink?": I think the peak oil-aware elites thought that Mid-East oil would provide enough time for US business/government to develop technofixes. Plus they were reaping gargantuan profits from financial leverage and living large. By pinning their hopes on Plan A, they gambled and lost. Plan B is about survival for the elites at their current standard of living for the longest possible time and nothing more. The peak oil-aware elites know this and know that the best they can hope for is several decades of a relatively high-energy lifestyle maintained by brutal oppression of the rest of the population.

[Grower]

   Excellent.

Brutal oppression is hard, though. It takes tons of resources. I don't think they can maintain it. I think I'd just extend your scenario out a little further in time and say that much more quickly than they ever thought possible, these elites will face their own collapse. Then continue the scene as described -- warlord areas and egalitarian areas. One or the other will probably grow to become dominant. If warlords, we have new elites and the whole cycle starts over. The egalitarian model has never really lasted. Maybe that could be a New Thing. Here's to hoping.

[mousewizard]

"Brutal oppression" by "the elites" would be roughly equivalent to the invasion of a country, and we've seen how well that's been working lately. Now consider the makeup of the US:

A significant proportion of the population has military training and direct combat experience. We bought a million weapons in August and that's just the general trend. Ammo is just flying off the shelves. Those of us with military experience know we'll need to have medium and heavy weapons; we also know where all the National Guard armories are located, and lots of us have fiends / connections there.

So how does one go about "brutally oppressing" such a population?

[Domscott66]

Simple...you leave the US....you have your colonies there but you, the rich bastard, live abroad. America will be raped for what it can be raped for...we will kill eachother without the law and government establishment. They dont have to do anything but leave and we collapse under our unsustainable world we have here. Take oil or grocery stores away for a week and it will be anarchy at the highest.

Once the population is crashing itself, you come in as the hero to restore order with a wonderful plan and leadership..and it starts all over again.

We will call this Plan C.

[mtlouie]

for the record, i have been researching the matter and without going into a long threadjack, i agree with louie here.

Hello!  It's LATOC!  Threadjack...please.  I'm intensely curious about what you've found.

[mtlouie]

Can a kingdom exist without slaves?

All slaves are is energy.  If they have another energy source, why do they need slaves?  Maybe a few for cooking, cleaning, and such.  But for power?  No.

Now, as far as being so egotistical as to need worshipers/followers, that's something else all together.

[Domscott66]

Same here...sounds like you two have the Plan C developed before me. What do you know plastixxman

[Maya]

Simple...you leave the US....you have your colonies there but you, the rich bastard, live abroad. America will be raped for what it can be raped for...we will kill eachother without the law and government establishment. They dont have to do anything but leave and we collapse under our unsustainable world we have here. Take oil or grocery stores away for a week and it will be anarchy at the highest.

Once the population is crashing itself, you come in as the hero to restore order with a wonderful plan and leadership..and it starts all over again.

We will call this Plan C.

Only 5% of global population live in US.  It is true that US consumes 25% of oil but China is #2 consumer of oil. How is rest of the world where 95% global population lives is sustainable? They may be able to restore order but life will never be the same without cheap oil.