From America to Zimbabwe, the coming anarchy

[Seahorse]

American middle-class faces homelessness.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/29/middle-class-family-livin_n_303537.html

[Seahorse]

State of Illinois finances worst ever.

CHICAGO (CBS) ―

Illinois State Comptroller Dan Hynes

The State of Illinois' pile of unpaid bills has grown to a record-breaking $3 billion. Comptroller Dan Hynes said Tuesday it's never before been this bad at this point in any previous fiscal year. CBS 2 Political Editor Mike Flannery reports that some social service agencies that rely heavily on state reimbursement warn they will soon be forced out of business.

http://cbs2chicago.com/politics/comptroller.state.finances.2.1232001.html

[tofu2u2]

My inescapable conclusion is that Kaplan's premise in "The Coming Anarchy" was spot on, that overpopulation, scarcity of resources lead to all kinds of things like a growing disparity between the wealthies and poorest, destruction of the middle class, destruction of "law and order", over burdened gov'ts, sound familiar? It should, because anyone who doesn't see those same issues facing the US right now has their head in the sand. The two biggest issues being discussed right now are the fact we have to import most our oil (energy scarcity) and our banks are failing (overburdened gov't) and, back in Sept, the President warned of an world-wide financial collapse, which still has not been avoided.

The world does not end, civilization does not end, but gov'ts change, and what happened in Zimbabwe and any number of other countries throughout history can happen here. To think otherwise only allows the unthinkable to happen. When one turns a blind eye to a problem, it allows it to mestastisize (if I spelled that right, but you know what I mean).

 Kaplan inspired me to start prepping in the 90s. At the time I read his articles, I was representing several police union groups (local Fraternal Order of Police Lodges, "FOP") in Prince Georges county (adjoins Washington DC) and some surrounding counties in Maryland.  I copied some of Kaplans  articles, especially "the coming anarchy" and gave them to some of the cops who were friends. I remember a couple of conversations with some of them who were detectives about how I thought that law enforcement was going to become very para-military throughout the entire country. Several of the detectives thought I was wrong because they beleived most cops are too independant minded to want to put up with all the BS that SWAT type units go through. Some of the guys who had been "street rollers" in Prince Georges county who still actively worked the streets in patroll units said they thought it would be neccesary to become paramilitary units to combat the escalating crime that was coming out of DC into Maryland. 

Seahorse, thank you for reminding me to re-read Kaplan, a good reminder of things to come here. And if you haven't read Kaplan, look it up in the Atlantic magazine online. It's worth it.

Thank you Seahorse for posting these threads even though its really depressing  to read how we are sliding downhill into a third world lifestyle here.

[Seahorse]

Hi Tofu,

I'm fascinated by Kaplan's thesis.  Although there has always been poverty, it seems that if we have reached "peak finances" and "peak resources" we should see a growing disparity between rich and poor in the United States and rest of the West as predicted by Kaplan, along with all the associated problems a growing poor class poses on society at large.  Only time will tell, but it seems that in the US at least, and probably the rest of the West, we are at "peak finances", which includes the beginning of the end of American economic, political and military dominance.  Some believe, as I do, that peak finances/economy can't be separated from peak oil, and that our current culture cannot be sustained at the same level it was in the late 90s.  Only time will tell, but I'm looking for and linking articles about peak finances, growing poor, etc in the United States to see what documentation there is for Kaplan's thesis as it applies here in the US.  Others may want to post articles on other countries.

[maurice]

Thanks for posting these, SeaHorse. Very thought provoking. I think that the
chief difference between America and Zimbabwe will be the Article V provision
in the US constitution that will allow the 50 states to step in when Congress and
the Executive branch fail to solve the problem of exponential federal budget deficits.
It will take 34 states to call for a constitutional convention to propose an amendment
to balance the federal budget. Thirty two out of the needed 34 have done so
already. Congress will have no choice then but to pass enabling legislation regulating
the conduct and convening of an Article V constitutional convention. The likeliest
enabling legislation to pass will probably resemble the proposal sponsored by
Senator Sam Ervin in the 1970s. Sam Ervin's model looked a lot like the Electoral
College.

[steelmoon]

Fascinating thread, a lot of thought-provoking material here.  I do question how far the comparison of current urban neighborhood violence to broader societal anarchy should really be taken, however.  I raise this question because I think the urban ghetto paradigm is in some ways unique and not likely to "spill over" for a couple reasons.

First, I think it's important to remember that many of the murders cited in Chicago and other US cities are related to the drug trade.  These are battles for turf and access to connections and markets, and though there are certainly many innocent casualties resulting from this type of violence, it is essentially economic in nature. It's even conceivable that an economic collapse would destroy the illicit drug market (as customers no longer have money) and lead to a reduction in this type of violence.

Second, I think group response in an anarchy scenario will vary significantly by region and local "culture" (for lack of a better term).  Here I have to extrapolate from personal experience and observation.  Frankly, if anarchy takes hold, I think the form it takes in my leafy suburb will be far different from the form it has taken in urban ghettos of Boston and other large cities.  I would bet that my neighbors would want to up-armor and increase the power of the police, and maybe suspend the 4th Amendment, before resorting to vigilantism or banditry.  The prevalence of firearms and the pseudo "warrior" or "gangster" culture is not to be found in the 'burbs.  Violence is not as common here.  The citizenry will be seeking more direct governmental-style oversight and governance, not less.  Local watchdog groups might be empowered to act as police auxiliaries.  True, they could devolve into something similar to violent west-African style militias or urban crime gangs, but again there is no recent historical precedent for this.  So I think it more likely that, in the burbs at least, the public will accept a police state before taking up arms themselves.  This is essentially what Weimar Germany became, and I see some parallels with the contemporary USA (unfortunately).

I admit I don't know much about West Africa, need to brush up further there. 

Anyway, just my thoughts, great thread, I'll keep reading...

[TheWarriorMax]

I admit I don't know much about West Africa, need to brush up further there. 

Anyway, just my thoughts, great thread, I'll keep reading...

Some places to start would include:

- Blood Diamond film http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood_diamond_film
- Lord of War film http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lord_of_War
- Operation Certain Death book http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Barras

[steelmoon]

Yeah, I get all my best info from Leo DiCaprio movies. 

 

[Seahorse]

I don't know how the US will change, only that I believe it will change.  Again, I believe there will always be a "system" in place, a government, but its hard for me to imagine how it will survive in the current federalist system we have now.  With the Federal gov't going bankrupt, here are some possibilities:

(1)  I could easily see it losing defacto control over the various states.  I'm not arguing outright rebellion by the states, just the simple recognition that as the Federal gov't becomes impotent, the States will have to rise to the occasion.  States exercised autonomy before the union was formed, had a civil war over it, and states are very capable of exercising autonomy again.  They are still organized for it.


(2)  Break up into various regions - The Russian professor, don't remember his name, opined that the US would break into various regions, this is possible also.  There were a few threads on this.

(3)  City states - at one time, there were some articles written by a US professor that concluded the US would experience the rise of City states, which are also organized and capable of operating as independent political units.  I've lost the links to these articles.  It was an interesting read.

(4)  Some form of martial law at the federal level - maybe the people willingly give the Fed gov't the power it needs to combat the many ills brought on by poverty and scarce resources, including martial law, rationing etc.

So, I don't believe in total anarchy, but if the Federal gov't goes bankrupt, hyperinflation, scarce resources etc., the current system seems destined to change from its current form.  Its hard for me to see the current federal sytem continuing.  The political divide between red and blue states is reminiscent of the civil war, states rights versus federal gov't.  That's a pretty powerful divide and only seems to be getting worse.  So, its hard for me to see option 4 developing over the long term.

[Seahorse]

50k people show up for Federal aid in Detroit.

http://www.doomers.us/forum2/index.php/topic,54304.0/topicseen.html

Detroit is a failed city.  Compare Detroit of 1950 with Detroit today.  In a generation, it has gone from the top of the world to complete abject failure.  This is Kaplan's thesis in motion.  Where will the US be in one more generation.  Fifty years is not that long, certainly not to my kids who will grow up in it.

[steelmoon]

Seahorse, in the course of your research have you formed any impressions about what role religion could play within these possible patterns?  NE is relatively secular and fairly religiously diverse, so I don't see a particular church or sect as strong enough to achieve broad political power.  I do believe though, that religiosity will become more common in a collapse scenario everywhere.

[zenobia]

Seahorse - I do not have a source I can link at this time, but I remember hearing from numerous sources that income disparity is growing rapidly in the US.  This has been discussed repeatedly here on latoc, particularly in reference to the decimation of the middle class during this current depression.  "Peak finance" indeed!

[PeakARoo]

The difference between Zimbabwe and North America is the fact that American civilians are armed to the teeth.

There may be hope of rebuilding amid a massive economic downturn if it wasn't for the 2 million registered fireams (who knows how many there are) in the states.
Your constitution which has provided much liberty throughout the years may also be the thing that unhinges the US.

A social welfare system in any country is a costly thing, supported by a large group of taxpayers. America's welfare system is on the ropes bigtime.
When the very thin veneer of social security cracks and people run out of foodstamps, what are they going to do?
In Zimbabwe, the majority of people who were not in Mugabe's pocket, had to beg on the streets for food. Or steal to eat.

In America, the great unwashed will take a more proactive approach to gaining food because of the ready supply of guns.
People may break into houses to steal food and there is a chance that they will be packing heat as well.

Having a weapon in your house can lead to a false sense of security and a degree of apathy to the plight of the impoverished and homeless.
"nothing will ever happen in my neighbourhood, but if it does, I will shoot an intruder". "I am not worried about food shortages because I have a gun".

Years ago a nutter killed over thirty people in one terrible rampage on the island of Tasmania. He used an AR-15 or M16 and was a particularly good marksman.
That prompted a amnesty and buy back of all semi-auto weapons in Australia. What would it take for America to do the same thing?
I still enjoy shooting rabbits with a bolt action rifle. There is no need in society for civilans to own assult rifles or handguns.

[Candace66]

if it wasn't for the 2 million registered fireams (who knows how many there are) in the states.

Per the national Dept. of Justice, there are at least 192 million guns floating around:  "25 percent of all adults, and 40 percent of American households, own at least one firearm. These owners possess 192 million firearms, of which 65 million are handguns."

Those numbers are for 1996, so even more around by now.

http://ojjdp.ncjrs.org/pubs/gun_violence/sect01.html

[PeakARoo]

Per the national Dept. of Justice, there are at least 192 million guns floating around:  "25 percent of all adults, and 40 percent of American households, own at least one firearm. These owners possess 192 million firearms, of which 65 million are handguns."


That is a scary bunch of statistics.
I posted an error and should have written 200 million firearms. Thanks for pointing it out.

I also meant to mention that IMHO, a Christian fundamentalist with a weapon is no less dangerous than an Islamic fundamentalist with gun.
Both are blinded by their beliefs and believe they are acting out "Gods will".

You have many Christian fundamentalists in the United States.