From America to Zimbabwe, the coming anarchy

[Seahorse]

There will be new meaning given to the term "African American," and it won't have anything to do with race, just pure old economics. In the 1990s, a book was written called "The Coming Anarchy" which hypothesized that the poverty and political problems suffered in Africa would soon be "exported" to the west due to systemic problems of overpopulation and scarcity of resources - sound familiar?

West Africa is becoming the symbol of worldwide demographic, environmental, and societal stress, in which criminal anarchy emerges as the real "strategic" danger. Disease, overpopulation, unprovoked crime, scarcity of resources, refugee migrations, the increasing erosion of nation-states and international borders, and the empowerment of private armies, security firms, and international drug cartels are now most tellingly demonstrated through a West African prism. West Africa provides an appropriate introduction to the issues, often extremely unpleasant to discuss, that will soon confront our civilization. To remap the political earth the way it will be a few decades hence--as I intend to do in this article--I find I must begin with West Africa.

http://dieoff.org/page67.htm

Its too bad no one listened, no one, that is, but a few "cassandras".

Now, with a depression bearing down on the world, scarcity clearly in everyone's sights, a cassandra in the US military think tanks is trying to head the warning of the "Coming Anarchy", that America may soon look like Zimbabwe, yes, that's a quote.

What’s the worst that could happen?
That’s a question that James Rickards spends a lot of time pondering these days, as he sifts through the national security implications of the financial crisis facing the United States.
Rickards will lay out his worst case scenarios in a lecture sponsored by the Navy and the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy tonight. And his forecasts aren’t for the faint of heart.

Rickards calls it the “A to Z” problem: What are the threats that could make the U.S. economy look less like America and more like Zimbabwe? He sees them everywhere – in the Chinese ownership of vast amounts of American debt, in Russia’s increased centralization of its economy, in Al Qaeda’s long-established fascination with damaging the U.S. economy.

In many ways, Rickards is the ultimate bear. He’s not just thinking about whether the stock market will decline, but whether or not the stock market will survive.
All that puts Rickards decidedly outside mainstream economic and political thinking in America. But he does have an influential audience: the United States intelligence and defense communities.

His lecture comes as part of an annual “Rethinking Seminar” produced by the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. Rickards argues that government is not doing nearly enough to prepare for the worst. “Here’s the policy problem for the United States,” he said in an interview. “We have experts in defense and intelligence, and huge depth in capital markets experience at the Fed and at Treasury. But they’re separated by the Potomac River. And they’re not talking to each other.”

Rickards came by his economic experience the hard way. He was the general counsel at Long Term Capital Management, the hedge fund that collapsed in spectacular fashion in the late 1990s and nearly took the global economy along with it. That near-economic death experience gave him a healthy appreciation for risk. Today, he’s the senior managing director for research at Omnis, an applied research firm.

Four of the scenarios keep him up at night:

The Bait Effect
Terrorists, and al Qaeda in particular, are fascinated with the idea of destroying the U.S. economy. Rickards worries that the economic meltdown in the United States could serve as bait of sorts for a terrorist attack, as plotters calculate that a strike now could have a “force multiplier” effect because of the already skittish U.S. stock market.

The China Syndrome
The Chinese own more than $500 billion worth of U.S. Treasury bonds, and billons more in the debt of other U.S. entities such as those held by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. And a general sense of mutually assured financial destruction keeps them from wielding that debt like a weapon: if the Chinese dumped U.S. debt on the global market, their own holdings of U.S. debt would decline in value, the U.S. economy would be damaged, ultimately harming the Chinese economy by reducing American ability to buy more Chinese goods.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1208/16663.html

[Seahorse]

This is a bit simplistic... White European educated populations of the US do not have the behavior of neglected black teenagers with AK47s in Sierra Leone or other hellish place.

Can't happen here? Not even with a dollar collapse?

Well, I think the anarchy is happening here to an extent, certainly the roots are set. Look at the murder rate in places like Chicago, Los Angeles, Atlanta.

Chicago, whose population is dwarfed by those cities, posted 426 killings through Tuesday, compared with 417 in New York and 302 in L.A.

At the end of 1998, Chicago made international headlines as the U.S. "murder capital" after surpassing New York's homicide totals for the first time ever. Chicago shed that dubious distinction when murders plummeted over the last decade.

In 1998, there were about 700 murders here. Chicago is on pace to exceed 500 murders by the end of 2008.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/24/chicago-murder-rate-tops_n_137488.html

Check out this article, which shows the murder rate in Washington DC is higher than the places in Africa cited.

June 21, 2004: The anti-government violence in Iraq is causing a annualized death rate of 15 per 100,000 population for terrorist activities alone. That compares to a murder rate in the United States of 5.6 per 100,000. European nations have an average rate of about four per 100,000, while Russia is 20 per 100,000. Some nations are particularly violent. South Africa has a murder rate of 59, and neighboring Namibia is 45. Colombia, in South America, was over 50 a few years ago, but is now down to the 30s because a crackdown on armed militias. The Middle East tends of have low murder rates, with Turkey having a rate of 2.3. Israel also had a rate of 2.3, until the Palestinians began their terrorism campaign in late 2000. The deaths from suicide bombings and other attacks doubled Israel's murder rate to about 4 per 100,000, although that has been coming down in the past year.

But Iraq has become accustomed to a high murder rate. Saddam's police forces were the cause of many murders, and as far back as the 1970s, the official murder rate was 12 per 100,000. The coalition forces and Iraqi security forces have gotten the non-terrorist murder rate down to about five per 100,000. This, combined with the deaths caused by terrorists, produces a rate of about 20 per year. The murder rate in Washington, DC, is over 60 per 100,000.

http://www.vinod.com/blog/News/BaghdadMurderRate.html

Now, I'm not trying to write a research paper on murder rates. But many US cities have high murder rates, we have the highest number of prisoners in the world, and probably as many guns as any place in the world. So, when the military think tank says what is happening in Zimbabwe could happen here, for a myriad of reasons, don't be so dismissive. It would behoove people to pay attention.

[Seahorse]

My inescapable conclusion is that Kaplan's premise in "The Coming Anarchy" was spot on, that overpopulation, scarcity of resources lead to all kinds of things like a growing disparity between the wealthies and poorest, destruction of the middle class, destruction of "law and order", over burdened gov'ts, sound familiar? It should, because anyone who doesn't see those same issues facing the US right now has their head in the sand. The two biggest issues being discussed right now are the fact we have to import most our oil (energy scarcity) and our banks are failing (overburdened gov't) and, back in Sept, the President warned of an world-wide financial collapse, which still has not been avoided.

The world does not end, civilization does not end, but gov'ts change, and what happened in Zimbabwe and any number of other countries throughout history can happen here. To think otherwise only allows the unthinkable to happen. When one turns a blind eye to a problem, it allows it to mestastisize (if I spelled that right, but you know what I mean).

[Seahorse]

You heard it here first, but now the infamous Marc Faber is saying the US will become Zimbabwe.

US Inflation Could Hit 200%: Dr. Doom

The US risks being hit by Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation and there are signs that the world's biggest economy risks turning into a banana republic, Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Doom & Boom report, told CNBC's "Asia Squawk Box."

"In the US, we have a totally new school, and it’s called the Zimbabwe school," Faber said. "And it’s founded by one of the great leaders of this world, Mr Robert Mugabe, that has managed to totally impoverish his own country. And that is the monetary policy the US is pursuing."

. . .

Asked whether the US risked being faced with 200 percent inflation, Faber answered: "Well, not yet. Not yet. But I think eventually. If I look at government debt in the US, and debt in general, I think the only way they will not default physically on their debt is to inflate."



© 2009 CNBC.com

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29047443

[Seahorse]

Looks like parts of LA are already importing the Zimbabwe model.

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4804882n

[Seahorse]

From Detroit to Zimbabwe. Be sure and check out the link for the photo of the body in ice, that everyone just ignored.

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090128/METRO08/901280491

[Seahorse]

Apparently, it hasn't always been this way, because neighborhoods are being abandoned now in Detroit. See link for video.

http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/dpp/news/no_ones_home_neighborhood

[Seahorse]

Soros says financial system is broken, likes this current economic crisis in US to collapse of Soviet Union.

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE51K0A920090221?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&rpc=23&sp=true

[Seahorse]

If the IEA's November report was right, the economic downturn will make the worse case oil production scenario come true, which is, without money invested into exploration and production and maintenance of existing fields, oil production declines at about 9% per year. So, while we may have a glut right now, they could quickly vanish.

[Seahorse]

From America to Zimbabwe.

Officer, dog square off against Modesto mob of 60
By Leslie Albrecht
lalbrecht@modbee.com

last updated: March 31, 2009 01:04:02 AM

A Modesto police officer had to pull his gun to keep a hostile crowd at bay early Sunday.

The officer sustained minor injuries in the southwest Modesto incident, said police spokesman Sgt. Brian Findlen. Police are not releasing the officer's name. The officer's dog was assaulted but not seriously injured, Findlen said. Police arrested several suspects in connection with the incident. A loaded assault rifle was found later at the scene of the struggle, which unfolded about 2 a.m.

Findlen said the officer pulled his gun only after other deterrents, including his police dog, failed to keep the crowd under control. "In a situation where you really feel that your life is in imminent danger, your options become very few," Findlen said.

Some members of the crowd told the officer that "he was not going to leave the scene alive," according to police.

The crowd of as many as 60 people included some known gang members, Findlen said. Police believe the group was gathered for a party in the 1700 block of Pelton Avenue. The officer happened upon the group when he was responding to another call in the area.

The officer saw several people assaulting one man, Findlen said. As the officer tried to break up the fight, the crowd's attention shifted from the assault victim to the officer. The crowd surrounded the officer. The officer sent his dog into the crowd in an attempt to stop the group.

The dog apprehended one suspect, who police later identified as 18-year-old Alfredo Espinoza of Modesto. As the officer tried to arrest Espinoza, the crowd pulled Espinoza away from the officer.

According to police, some in the crowd then challenged the officer to a fight. One suspect attacked the officer, police said.

Officer's radio broken

The officer's two-way radio was broken during the struggle. The officer then used his gun to hold off the crowd as he tried to tell neighbors to call 911. Someone in the crowd had a police scanner, Findlen said, and told the rest of the crowd that other officers weren't responding to the scene. It was then that the officer was told he wouldn't be leaving the scene alive, according to police.

Backup units responded after calls from other residents.

Other officers responding to the scene stopped a vehicle and found Espinoza inside, Findlen said. The driver, 20-year-old Modesto resident Andrew Mitchell, and the passenger, 19-year-old Modesto resident Matthew Reyes, were arrested on suspicion of resisting and delaying a police officer, assaulting a police dog, and "lynching." Lynching is a law enforcement term that means forcibly removing a suspect -- in this case, Espinoza -- from police custody.

Two police scanners were found in the vehicle.

Two other suspects were arrested at the scene of the struggle. William Rodriguez, 29, of Modesto was arrested on suspicion of assaulting a police officer, false imprisonment of a police officer and lynching. Junior Suarez, 19, of Modesto was arrested on suspicion of resisting and delaying a police officer and lynching.

Assault rifle found

Officers reportedly found a loaded assault rifle magazine near the scene of the assault.

During a follow-up investigation later Sunday morning, police said, officers found a loaded, banned assault rifle that police believe was used at the scene of the party. Gabriel Avila, 21, of Modesto was arrested on suspicion of possessing an assault rifle.

Detectives are continuing their investigation. Anyone with information is asked to called the Modesto Police Department at 572-9500 or Crime Stoppers at 521-4636. Tipsters also can text information to 274637. Type "TIP704" with your message.

Bee staff writer Leslie Albrecht can be reached at lalbrecht@modbee.com or 578-2378.

http://www.modbee.com/local/v-print/story/648161.html

[Seahorse]

Flint, Michigan is starting to look like Zimbabwe. How many other places are like this? New Orleans comes to mind.

Off-the-cuff suggestion prompts discussion on what to do with abandoned neighborhoods in Flint
by Kristin Longley | The Flint Journal

Tuesday March 17, 2009, 7:45 AM
Ryan Garza | The Flint JournalThe view through an abandoned house's broken window looks out on a boarded-up house across the street on East Russell Avenue in Flint.

FLINT, Michigan -- Look in any direction from Bianca Bates' north Flint home, and you'll see graffiti-covered siding, boarded-up windows and overgrown lots.

About half of the homes on her block are burned out or vacant magnets for drug dealers and squatters. It isn't where she thought she'd end up, but it's all she can afford to rent.

"It's a dangerous place to live," said Bates, 21, who lives on East Russell Avenue. "Everywhere you look, these houses are empty around here."

Property abandonment is getting so bad in Flint that some in government are talking about an extreme measure that was once unthinkable -- shutting down portions of the city, officially abandoning them and cutting off police and fire service.

Temporary Mayor Michael Brown made the off-the-cuff suggestion Friday in response to a question at a Rotary Club of Flint luncheon about the thousands of empty houses in Flint.

Brown said that as more people abandon homes, eating away at the city's tax base and creating more blight, the city might need to examine "shutting down quadrants of the city where we (wouldn't) provide services."

He did not define what that could mean -- bulldozing abandoned areas, simply leaving the vacant homes to rot or some other idea entirely.

On Monday, a city spokesman downplayed Brown's comments.
Flint Journal extras At issue

• City officials say they may consider shutting down city services in areas where no one lives, but no plans are on the table to so.


Bob Campbell, Brown's spokesman, said the acting mayor was speaking hypothetically about a worst-case scenario, "not something that would be laid out in the next six months" while he's in office.

But City Council President Jim Ananich said the idea has been on his radar for years.

The city is getting smaller and should downsize its services accordingly by asking people to leave sparsely populated areas, he said.

"It's going to happen whether we like it or not," he said. "We'd have to be creative about it, but it's something worth looking into. We're not there yet, but it could definitely happen."

Flint resident Derrick Young, 39, doesn't think people in his West Austin Avenue neighborhood would bow too easily to such a request.

"We (are) all family over here," he said. "We all stick together."

Even in neighborhoods where more homes are vacant than occupied, Young, who rents, said the city shouldn't interfere.

"They shouldn't be so hard on people, just because they live in a bad area," he said. "They should find more ways to fix it up and rent it out."

The concept of "shrinking cities" isn't new to urban areas similar to Flint.

Last year, the city of Youngstown, Ohio, proposed incentives to encourage people to move out of nearly empty blocks and relocate to more populated areas closer to the heart of the city. Some people were offered upward of $50,000, according to news reports.

The idea was to shut down entire streets and bulldoze abandoned properties so the city could discontinue services such as police patrols and street lighting, according to a CNN report.

The problem came, understandably so, when officials asked residents to move.

Abandoned and foreclosed homes are on top of the list of major challenges facing Michigan cities, said Arnold Weinfeld, director of public policy and federal affairs with the Michigan Municipal League. The organization surveyed several cities that cited declining property taxes as the No. 1 problem, he said.

In the past three years or so, cities in Michigan have lost a combined $147 million in property taxes, he said.

"That's bound to have an impact on local services," he said. "There's no question it's an issue. Each community is going to address it differently."

Brown took over last month after former Mayor Don Williamson resigned facing a recall election. His replacement will be elected Aug. 4.

Brown is focused on economic development as a key to revitalizing Flint, Campbell said. The city also has the advantage of having the Genesee County Land Bank, he said.

"Cities such as Flint might be forced to make difficult choices at some point," Campbell said. "However, what he's all about is having an economic development plan in place so we don't have to seriously consider that as an option."

Bates said the idea might make some people happier, but she doesn't see how it would help the city.

But her roommate, Gabrielle Daniels, said it sounds like a good idea.

"Let's get these kids out of these bad areas," she said. "Get them out of drug houses and into safer neighborhoods."

http://www.mlive.com/news/flint/index.ssf/2009/03/city_of_flint_shutdown_offthec.html

[Seahorse]

Authorities require wearing of arm bands to live in a spot designated for the homeless. If you can't prove yourself local, you got to move out. Interesting how fast the authorities start recognizing "geographic boundaries" to segregate people.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-tents18mar18,0,274805.story

[Seahorse]

From America to Zimbabwe, the coming anarchy. Poor states dropping welfare programs like hot rocks.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/12/us/12deficit.html?_r=3

http://articles.latimes.com/2009/apr/15/local/me-lausd15

[Seahorse]

Faber says what happened in Zimbabwe will happen in the US.

http://wallstreetpit.com/4581-faber-peddling-doom-gloom-inflation-and-gold

[Seahorse]

Detroit jail cells are empty, even though the homicide rate is rising.

http://www.freep.com/Story_not_found