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Author Topic: Get Ready for the Next Wave  (Read 1391 times)
wardoc
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« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2009, 08:50:29 AM »

Keynes said at least one thing that was right: 

..."The market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent." 

Seems appropriate for right here right now. 
They can't keep this up much longer, however.  In the early 1930's following the first crash wave down, the Dow rose for
22 weeks (!!!!!) and went up by just over 50%, then all hell broke lose, as we all know.  If you look at a Dow chart of the 30's
what you see is a crash wave down followed by a partial retracement (with headlines screaming that the bottom is in, prosperity is here again, blah blah blah), followed by yet another crash wave down, etc etc.  It was like stairsteps into hell. 
The more things change the more they remain the same....Wardoc (no, not really, this quote is from Seymour Sarason, a Yale psychologist from the 50's).
Bears just need to hang on, keep rolling over their puts, and try to stay solvent until irrationality gets its due. 

Cheers,

Wardoc
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jtmo3
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« Reply #16 on: September 18, 2009, 08:55:42 AM »

I disagree. I think they can keep this up for several more quarters at least. Maybe not full on blast off mode, but they can keep it from falling much or rising slightly. There is to much newly printed money in the financial centers if they want to keep it up. Besides, GDP will rise at least the next two quarters, thanks to .gov money, and that will keep this afloat. And this is a bare minimum. There is some truth to that old saying, don't fight the fed. No matter what it looks like, the ability to be able to print the worlds reserve currency with almost complete immunity to anything, is a very powerful tool.
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picasso moon
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« Reply #17 on: September 18, 2009, 01:46:34 PM »

Right, the dollar will always be the reserve currency Roll Eyes
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jtmo3
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« Reply #18 on: September 18, 2009, 01:52:09 PM »

Now, I didn't say that. It IS at the moment and that's what matters now. Tomorrow is another day.
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Doomerific
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« Reply #19 on: September 18, 2009, 02:15:00 PM »

Instead of puts, you should have shorted Au every monday morning the past several months.

Why not just pick the correct lottery numbers?
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Megadoom
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« Reply #20 on: September 18, 2009, 02:21:06 PM »

At this point I feel defeated. I am quickly losing hope that a crash will take place and this modern lifestyle will cease. Even when/if these begin to explode I do not see the DoW joining us in reality or the government not choosing to dole out/print up/borrow more money to fill the hole they create.

Geez, you have no patience. Look, if in 4 years, we're not crawling through the rubble or our bodies eaten by buzzards, you can say I was wrong.
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Biminim
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« Reply #21 on: September 18, 2009, 03:02:09 PM »

At this point I feel defeated. I am quickly losing hope that a crash will take place and this modern lifestyle will cease. Even when/if these begin to explode I do not see the DoW joining us in reality or the government not choosing to dole out/print up/borrow more money to fill the hole they create.

Geez, you have no patience. Look, if in 4 years, we're not crawling through the rubble or our bodies eaten by buzzards, you can say I was wrong.

Yeah, but if we ARE, how can he tell you that you're right?  Hmmm?
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