CNN: "Why oil won't return to triple digits"

[lowem]

Let the MSM keep those $10 predictions coming, just so some of us could keep the contrarian thing going.

[cz]

Fools.  For me, as an oil investor since 2005, it's encouraging.  The lead financial stories in the MSM are usually wrong (perhaps deliberately) to mislead the sheeple and make sure they are on the wrong end of an investment.

$100/barrel by December 31, 2009.  I'm bookmarking this thread and will post again at the end of the year.

Oil was up $3.23 today at $72.42.

Well, I agree with you that the long-term trend of oil is up because of dwindling investment and production. However, I think we're going to have another mega-crash sometime this September or October at the latest and the price of everything is going to crash, even oil. Just like last year. The stock market will crash, more banks will go bust, more corporations will go bust, governments will run out of money to give away. This will keep oil from skyrocketing.

I agree w/ DZ on that one...  we're seeing $74+ today, I'm betting we could see $80, maybe even $85 by Oct in this "rally", but then it all comes tumbling down again as commercial RE numbers get worse, etc. 

Actually, I think 2 ways.. *if* the SHTF in Oct, I think saying "no $100 soon" will be true. 
*IF* (and thats a big "if" for me), the shit *doesn't* HTF, and things keep rising - I think we might see $100 soon. 
.. of course, if we see that, I'm betting TSHTF isn't far behind it anyways.

[teotwawkian]

The current oil price increase is largely based on dollar weakness. OPEC has lowered production to the point that it has upwards of 5 million barrels a day in excess capacity. The production-demand mismatch is on the order of a 1/2 million barrels a day right now with the world demanding around 83.5 million barrels a day and production at about 84 million. Demand continues to drop due to the current economic turmoil and is off nearly 8% in the US alone from peak.

I agree with Bob Prechter of Elliott Wave's prediction that the dollar has bottomed and will strengthen and the oil price will fall. I see it hitting around $30/bbl by year end. Prechter sees it as sub-$10, which I think is a bit extreme.

[ Here is a link to my source for OPEC excess capacity figures http://www.energyeconomist.com/a6257783p/opec/capacity/excesscapacity.html ]