Orlov: The slope of dysfunction

[Phildo]

Two observations --

It is very difficult to integrate vertically any type of local settlement if it does not have the basic attribute of a relatively stable energy input.

JB

Daily Solar is a pretty stable event in much of the world.

Piracy's really going to suck when the sack that convoy bringing rice and oranges to your refinery.

I think the new buzz phrase is going to be 'localized vertical integration.'

I suspect Bait-and-Shoot Pirate Extermination may become a buzz phrase, as well.

[Brennus]

Orlov cracks me up - and scares the pee outta me - at the same time. 

Why does he scare the pee out of you?

[Bloodstone]

Daily Solar is a pretty stable event in much of the world.

But that's not going to keep me very well stocked in cheeze-doodles, ring-dings and x-box games, now, is it?

Don't confuse a sustainable future civilization (of whatever scale) with what is apt to be a very painful, bloody and deadly energy descent and transition.

But keep preaching those ideas now, 'cause the more people get it and start thinking about and planning for a sustainable future, the less MBZ's we'll have running around.

[Phildo]

Daily Solar is a pretty stable event in much of the world.

But that's not going to keep me very well stocked in cheeze-doodles, ring-dings and x-box games, now, is it?

Suppose it might.  How hungry are you?      

But for real -- Near as I can tell, solar electric can do most of what Oil does as far as fuel except for aircraft and do it cheaper, cleaner and safer.  No real tears shed on my end for the passing of the Age of Oil.

Don't confuse a sustainable future civilization (of whatever scale) with what is apt to be a very painful, bloody and deadly energy descent and transition.

But keep preaching those ideas now, 'cause the more people get it and start thinking about and planning for a sustainable future, the less MBZ's we'll have running around.

Conversely, I would caution not to confuse future likelihoods with doomer and end-times fantasies.  I follow you all have a lot of fun with them, sort of the Christofascists do with their Left Behind Rapture Fantasies . . . .  but that does not make them real.   

[Bloodstone]

But for real -- Near as I can tell, solar electric can do most of what Oil does as far as fuel except for aircraft and do it cheaper, cleaner and safer.  No real tears shed on my end for the passing of the Age of Oil. 

Not on anywhere near the same scale, though, which is why the majority of our built environment needs to be shit-canned.  And also not with the same standard of "living" - if by living I mean 3 hour commutes, delivery thai food with watermelon in January, and airconditioning on as soon as it hits 75.

So, few tears on my side, too.

On the end times stuff, I'm more interested in buidilng communtiy, but I'm still doing some preppin', just in case.

[Mr. Bones]

Space colonization, i love it, we've totally destroyed our own planet

Nah, we haven't nor will we ever destroy the planet.  We may have raped humanity's chance for a pleasant survival, however we certainly do not have the power to annihilate the planet.  It will remain here for a long, long time.

I agree with Carlin on this issue:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eScDfYzMEEw (External Embedding Disabled)

[mememonkey]

Not only is a new high-EROEI energy source a fantasy, it will do nothing about the depletion of all the other resources, eg minerals/metals, soil,...  civilization as it exists is unsustainable for many reasons, not just peak oil,

Once "demand destruction" resulting from Peak Oil has transformed a very significant proportion of the planet into a Mad Max almost population free zone, the introduction of a new largely available high EROEI energy source would enable the rebuilding of human civilization according to a new world order (with a very reduced level of population with respect to present) and would potentially enable a management of the remaining resources in such a way as to steer humanity towards space colonization where new sources of land and minerals would become readily available.

JB

I think your map of the die out is pretty good,  but i don't think civilization can then take the miracle energy solution off the shelf.    the die off  runs parallel to the reduction of complexity that is inherent in a systemic catabolic collapse.
the notion that new nuclear fusion / space travel can exist on the other side of the pending collapse I believe is far fetched.   Such advanced technologies are a function of the complexity of our society which itself a function of of energy that brought us to this point.     We will be lucky to move forward post collapse with low tech knowledge, like permaculture germ theory etc.

mememonkey

[S E Pearson]

Daily Solar is a pretty stable event in much of the world.

But that's not going to keep me very well stocked in cheeze-doodles, ring-dings and x-box games, now, is it?

Suppose it might.  How hungry are you?      

But for real -- Near as I can tell, solar electric can do most of what Oil does as far as fuel except for aircraft and do it cheaper, cleaner and safer.  No real tears shed on my end for the passing of the Age of Oil.

Don't confuse a sustainable future civilization (of whatever scale) with what is apt to be a very painful, bloody and deadly energy descent and transition.

But keep preaching those ideas now, 'cause the more people get it and start thinking about and planning for a sustainable future, the less MBZ's we'll have running around.

Conversely, I would caution not to confuse future likelihoods with doomer and end-times fantasies.  I follow you all have a lot of fun with them, sort of the Christofascists do with their Left Behind Rapture Fantasies . . . .  but that does not make them real.   

Sweet, where can I buy a solar electric 18 wheeler? 

[picasso moon]

I'm so glad to hear there are planets like earth only a few hundred light years away. Real accessible, in other words.  
(not to mention the notion of people re-developing space travel and high tech after the crash)
Like i said regarding his previous article, Orlov doesn't realize just how hopeless most Americans are.

[Abhaha]

I'm so glad to hear there are planets like earth only a few hundred light years away. Real accessible, in other words.  

Yeah...I have been through that movie before with old JB. He makes some good comments on other subjects but on that one he is truly beamed up.

[JB]

Not only is a new high-EROEI energy source a fantasy, it will do nothing about the depletion of all the other resources, eg minerals/metals, soil,...  civilization as it exists is unsustainable for many reasons, not just peak oil,

Once "demand destruction" resulting from Peak Oil has transformed a very significant proportion of the planet into a Mad Max almost population free zone, the introduction of a new largely available high EROEI energy source would enable the rebuilding of human civilization according to a new world order (with a very reduced level of population with respect to present) and would potentially enable a management of the remaining resources in such a way as to steer humanity towards space colonization where new sources of land and minerals would become readily available.

JB

I think your map of the die out is pretty good,  but i don't think civilization can then take the miracle energy solution off the shelf.    the die off  runs parallel to the reduction of complexity that is inherent in a systemic catabolic collapse.
the notion that new nuclear fusion / space travel can exist on the other side of the pending collapse I believe is far fetched.   Such advanced technologies are a function of the complexity of our society which itself a function of of energy that brought us to this point.     We will be lucky to move forward post collapse with low tech knowledge, like permaculture germ theory etc.

mememonkey

You may be right.

But TPTB may be planning for the maintenance of a core cell of high-tech humanity to withstand an almost complete dieoff so that a new world order can be established and a new unified path to the future may be found. How the whole saga plays out remains to be seen...

JB

[JB]

I'm so glad to hear there are planets like earth only a few hundred light years away. Real accessible, in other words.  

Yeah...I have been through that movie before with old JB. He makes some good comments on other subjects but on that one he is truly beamed up.

Open your mind old bird and you will find that you have wings! You just have to open them to fly to the stars...

JB

[picasso moon]

With this long a commute facing me, i might as well stay home

[Phildo]

Daily Solar is a pretty stable event in much of the world.

But that's not going to keep me very well stocked in cheeze-doodles, ring-dings and x-box games, now, is it?

Suppose it might.  How hungry are you?      

But for real -- Near as I can tell, solar electric can do most of what Oil does as far as fuel except for aircraft and do it cheaper, cleaner and safer.  No real tears shed on my end for the passing of the Age of Oil.

Don't confuse a sustainable future civilization (of whatever scale) with what is apt to be a very painful, bloody and deadly energy descent and transition.

But keep preaching those ideas now, 'cause the more people get it and start thinking about and planning for a sustainable future, the less MBZ's we'll have running around.

Conversely, I would caution not to confuse future likelihoods with doomer and end-times fantasies.  I follow you all have a lot of fun with them, sort of the Christofascists do with their Left Behind Rapture Fantasies . . . .  but that does not make them real.   

Sweet, where can I buy a solar electric 18 wheeler? 

That size project is on the list -- but sadly -- at least for a start, as an export item.   Anyone know those details off-hand?  What it takes, permits, licenses, etc.,  to ship from the US -- Probably Corpus Christi, TX to the Caymans?   If I just make it float, can I tow it?    

But you were meaning as transportation, right?  For that -- it takes one of the most rare and difficult elements in human existence.     Cooperation.   

Grid power the roadway (it is a common held gov. maintained asset).  The Solar equipment stays put, the power is put to the roadway, and your 18 wheeler zips along with no air pollution and less expense than oil. 

[The End of Suburbia]

Including the picture of the grey alien on the right hand side of the PO graph = classic! 

Check out the "special features" on The End of Suburbia DVD for an animated film called "Destination Earth", featuring Martians drilling for oil on their planet after visiting Earth.