New Mega-Post from Dmitry Orlov: "Definancialisation, Deglobalisation . . ."

[JurisDoctorOfDoom]

Worth reading the whole thing.

Some highlights:

A) Just how high can the price of oil go before collapse happens?

Fançois Cellier has recently published an analysis in which he shows that at roughly $600/bbl the entire world's GDP would be required to pay for oil, leaving no money for putting it to any sort of interesting use. At that price level, we can't even afford to take delivery of it. In fact, at that price level, we can't even afford to pump it out of the ground, because the tool pushers, roughnecks and roustabouts that make oil rigs work don't drink the oil, and there would no longer be room in the budget for beer.

And so, the actual limiting price, beyond which no economic activity is possible, is certainly a lot lower, and last summer we seem to have experimentally established that to be around $150/bbl. which is something like 25% of global GDP. We may never run out of oil, but we have already run out of money with which to buy it, at least once, and will most likely do so again and again, until we learn the lesson. We will run out of money to pump it out of the ground as well. There might still be a few gushers left in the world, and so there will be a little bit of oil left over for us to fashion into exotic plastic jewelry for rich people. But it won't be enough to sustain an industrial base, and so the industrial age will effectively be over, except for some residual solar panels and wind generators and hydroelectric installations.

B) What sort of communities will reassert themselves as collapse occurs?

Now, supposing all goes well, and we have a swift and decisive collapse, what should follow is an equally swift rebirth of viable localised communities and ecosystems. One concern is that the effort will be short of qualified staff.

It is an unfortunate fact that the recent centuries of settled life, and especially the last century or so of easy living based on the industrial model, has made many people too soft to endure the hardships and privations that self-sufficient living often involves. It seems quite likely that those groups that are currently marginalised, would do better, especially the ones that are found in economically underdeveloped areas and have never lost contact with nature.

And so I would not be surprised to see these marginalised groups stage a come-back. Almost every rural place has its population of people who know how to use the local resources. They are the human component of the local ecosystems, and, as such, they deserve much more respect than they have received. A lot of them can't be bothered about fine manners or about speaking English. Those who are used to thinking of them as primitive, ignorant and uneducated will be shocked to discover how much they must learn from them.

C) What sort of personalities are likely to survive the collapse?

There is a certain range of personalities that are most likely to survive collapse unscathed, physically or psychologically, and adapt to the new circumstances. I have been able to spot certain common traits while researching reports of survivors of shipwrecks and other similar calamities. A certain amount of indifference or detachment is definitely helpful, including indifference to suffering. Possibly the most important characteristic of a survivor, more important than skills or preparation or even luck, is the will to survive. Next is self-reliance: the ability to persevere in spite of loneliness lack of support from anyone else. Last on the list is unreasonableness: the sheer stubborn inability to surrender in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds, opposing opinions from one's comrades, or even force.

Those who feel the need to be inclusive, accommodating, to compromise and to seek consensus, need to understand the awesome force of social inertia. It is an immovable, crushing weight . . .

Full article: http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2009/06/definancialisation-deglobalisation.html

[hillwalker]

I like Orlov a lot.

No, I don't agree with him on specifics, but I do in general.
And his reasoning is a lot more level headed and clear
than the huge majority of crud we have to listen to now.

[powerDown]

If labor, handling and transport will keep the price 'low" compared to demand, maybe the "costs" can be controlled via legislation. Wage fixing/ increasing tax benefits and more gov. subsidies to assist our troubled energy companies might just solve that part of the equation, methinks. Orlov does seem to have the issue well thought out (scarily so).

[ashmeadskernel]

So he's voting for the crusty old curmudgeons feeding their grandchildren through sheer cussedness after the grandkids' brainwashed parents offed themselves after they lost their job and ipod and social identity.

Well, beats the alternative scenario of only the obedient slaves of the NWO surviving after THEY poisoned all the water and food.

The benefit of Orlov, is that he has already gotten past the "it couldn't possibly happen to us" syndrome.

[anarchist]

he nailed it with his " How long do we have"

[Al Czervik]

My only beef with Dmitry is on the psychological issues.  He and Carolyn Baker always seem to be all over the map on this stuff and say things like be resolute, but not inflexible.  WTF.  Like take what Dmitry said there about the value of being stubborn and tough, which is somewhat in contrast with this:

An equally useful quality in a crisis is apathy. The Russian people are exceptionally patient: even in the worst of post-collapse times, they did not riot, and there were no significant protests. They coped as best they could. The safest group of people to be with in a crisis is one that does not share strong ideological convictions, is not easily swayed by argument, and does not possess an overdeveloped, exclusive sense of identity.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Archives2008/OrlovLessonsPartThree.html

[Ming]

That was really great - thanks.

I particularly liked:

- No-one will inform you that collapse has happened, you will only know that is has happened to you[/u]

-  People who have experienced collapse start to look shabby to those who still prosper and are no longer invited to tea and crumpets.

[Ana]

I like this point too, that he makes:

13. Fastest way to lose all your money

Let's face it, these are difficult times for those of us who have a lot of money. What can we do? We can entrust it to a financial institution. That tends to turn out badly. Many people in the United States have entrusted their retirement savings to financial institutions. And now they are being told that they cannot withdraw their money. All they can do is open a letter once a month, to watch their savings dwindle.

We can also invest it in some part of the global economy. I know some automotive factories you could buy. They are quite affordable right now. A lot of retired auto workers have put all of their retirement savings into General Motors stock. Maybe they know something that we don't? (Actually, that's part of a fraudulent scheme perpetrated by the Obama administration, to pay off their banker friends ahead of GM's other creditors.)

Well then, how about a nice gold brick or two? A bag of diamonds? Some classic cars? Then you could start your own personal museum of transportation. How about a beautifully restored classic luxury yacht? Then you could use the gold bricks to weigh you down if you ever decide to end it all by jumping overboard.

Here's another brilliant idea: buy green products. Whatever green thing the marketers and advertisers throw at you, buy it, toss it, and buy another one straight away. Repeat until they are out of product, you are out of money, and the landfills are full of green rubbish. That should stimulate the economy. Market research shows that there is a great reservoir of pent-up eco-guilt out there for marketers and advertisers to exploit. Industrial products that help the environment are a bit of an oxymoron. It's a bit like trying to bail out the Titanic using plastic teaspoons.

Another great marketing opportunity for our time is in survival goods. There are some web sites that push all sorts of supplies to put in your private bunker. It's a clever bit of manipulation, actually. Users log in, see that the stock market is down, oil is up, shotgun shells are on sale, so are hunting knives, and if you add a paperback on "surviving financial armageddon" to your shopping cart you qualify for free shipping. Oh and don't forget to add a large tin of dehydrated beans. Fear is a great motivator, and getting people to buy survival goods is almost a matter of operant conditioning: a marketer's dream.
If you want to help save the environment and prepare yourself for a life without access to consumer goods, then doing so by buying consumer goods doesn't seem like such a great plan. A much better thing to do is to BUY NOTHING. But that is not something you can do with money. But there are useful things to do with money, for the time being, if we hurry.

[Chesyre]

My only beef with Dmitry is on the psychological issues.  He and Carolyn Baker always seem to be all over the map on this stuff and say things like be resolute, but not inflexible.  WTF.  Like take what Dmitry said there about the value of being stubborn and tough, which is somewhat in contrast with this:

An equally useful quality in a crisis is apathy. The Russian people are exceptionally patient: even in the worst of post-collapse times, they did not riot, and there were no significant protests. They coped as best they could. The safest group of people to be with in a crisis is one that does not share strong ideological convictions, is not easily swayed by argument, and does not possess an overdeveloped, exclusive sense of identity.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Archives2008/OrlovLessonsPartThree.html

there is a vast difference between being an observer and an experiencer of collapse.   you could learn more from someone who has been kicked down the rabbit hole so far they couldn't see daylight in 5 minutes.   than reading all of orlovs or bakers  theories on people and how they will react and or interact in a crisis.  until then their theories are just untested shit and like many manuals without an "expert" to explain the simple to understand , yet complicated to implement  ideas , will prolly get you hurt maimed or killed , its called natural selection ).

[mos6507]

and if you add a paperback on "surviving financial armageddon" to your shopping cart you qualify for free shipping.
...
A much better thing to do is to BUY NOTHING.

Hmm...

[Ana]

and if you add a paperback on "surviving financial armageddon" to your shopping cart you qualify for free shipping.
...
A much better thing to do is to BUY NOTHING.

Hmm...

I quoted him.  It's just interesting that he says that.

[JurisDoctorOfDoom]

My only beef with Dmitry is on the psychological issues.  He and Carolyn Baker always seem to be all over the map on this stuff and say things like be resolute, but not inflexible.  WTF.  Like take what Dmitry said there about the value of being stubborn and tough, which is somewhat in contrast with this:

An equally useful quality in a crisis is apathy. The Russian people are exceptionally patient: even in the worst of post-collapse times, they did not riot, and there were no significant protests. They coped as best they could. The safest group of people to be with in a crisis is one that does not share strong ideological convictions, is not easily swayed by argument, and does not possess an overdeveloped, exclusive sense of identity.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Archives2008/OrlovLessonsPartThree.html

all the psychological talk - yes including that of Dmitry and Caroly - is basically worthless sans something to do with the *physical body*. You can't think or contemplate your way to being resolute or flexible or whatever. You need to have some type of *physical body* practice that hardwires the characteristic or trait into your flesh and blood body. This is totally lost on most people, in my experience, including really smart ones like Dmitry and Carolyn who seem to focus - at least so far as I can ascertain from their writings - on what goes on in the head. So if somebody needs to be more flexible in their character, they need a physical practice like yoga. Or if they need to learn to be more confrontational then some type of aggressive martial art. You can't just think or will or imagine your way into being more flexible or resolute although conceptualizing it is part of the process of internalizing it.

[hillwalker]

and if you add a paperback on "surviving financial armageddon" to your shopping cart you qualify for free shipping.
...
A much better thing to do is to BUY NOTHING.

Hmm...

HA! +2

well, I broke his rules, and bought his book anyway. I thought it was a really good read, very doom.

That said, again, I don't agree with him on specifics, but I do in general.

[mos6507]

He's claiming peak oil caused the credit crisis, which Rubin also states.  Both mistaken, IMHO, but I know I'm in the minority on that one, but I call it as I see it.

[slow_dazzle]

Been waiting for something like this from Dmitry, in light of how fast the economy is going down the pan.

He has the advantage, of actually having seen what doom looks like, so he has something worth saying. The thing I like about his world view is his pragmatism, something possibly born out of his experience in the FSU. If anyone comes forward, espousing a super plan to rescue everyone, it's probably wise to take his advice and walk away ... rapidly.

Might be a good idea to discuss his ideas in this thread, after reading the article a couple of times. And, to reiterate, this guy has seen doom at first hand, so he knows what works and what doesn't.