New Mega-Post from Dmitry Orlov: "Definancialisation, Deglobalisation . . ."

[Domscott66]

His idea of not buying anything now might not be forever, instead he may be stating to not buy anything yet, that wasting money on green items or seeds may not be the best investment when you dont know what is coming, instead you are trying to prepare of everything and have a good shot of tossing all your money away. So many people are trying to "go green", it's the latest craze...save the planet, etc...but going green really isnt doing alot when it takes all this oil to produce these green products. There is a point where we are running around trying to do SOMETHING we waste a lot more effort than we really should be.

I am not waiting, I see writing on the wall and feel that the economy is dumping so I am planning for the worst...within reason. I may not be helping the environment by recycling, but who knows, it is not a huge step to recycle those items instead of fill a landfill. Using solar heating for my water system may not be the most efficient but it does drop down my energy cost monthly bill.

I agree that so many people are running around that they are not really accomplishign anything be yelling "the sky is falling" and not even looking up to see if it is. My two cents at least from what I got in his writing.

[steelmoon]

I'm with Dry Observer, this left me scratching my head a bit, but maybe for different reasons.  Orlov posits a more or less apocalyptic scenario and then spends the bulk of the presentation discussing societal-level and personal ways to mitigate post-collapse hardship.

Orlov is always entertaining.  There are many witty and insightful observations here.  For example his rebuttal of the "alt.fuels will save us" ideology: "We have already failed to innovate our way out of this."

But there seems to be a fundamental paradox in this presentation.  Near the beginning he appears to endorse the view that population will be reduced by roughly 90% post-PO.  I happen to agree with the Die-Off hypothesis, although I don't know what a realistic human survival rate would be. But if this assumption is correct and only 10% of us will survive, outlining a post-collapse "starting over" blueprint becomes a distant secondary priority.  So distant, in fact, as to hardly be worth considering, given that only 10% of us will even make it there!

So, the real emphasis should be on SURVIVING THE COLLAPSE STAGE, but he seems to get rather vague here, except to point out that most of the common "prepping" responses will not work.  They key traits will be physical fitness and the ability to adapt and improvise outside of the modern economic apparatus. 

To me, what this piece really implies is that the best bet for survival would be joining a faction (political? paramilitary? religious?) that is physically fit, powerful and capable enough to ensure survival for a decent percentage of its members.  I use "faction" rather than "community" intentionally, as it has a more martial connotation.  Assuming a 90% mortality rate, it is also safe to assume that the capability to "manage" violence (in addition to food, trade, shelter etc.) could have a great deal to do with whether or not one's group ends up among the blessed 10%. 

I respect Orlov, but it seems he reaches a very disturbing conclusion, and then wants to reassure the audience.  There seems to be the assumption that by keeping fit, getting off the economic-industrial treadmill, being adaptable and having the right attitude improves one's chances of being part of that 10%.  Maybe so, but it still means 90% of us are gonna die.  And that may be true too...

Yeah, I'm puzzled.  I'll have to give it another read.  Still, a very good link!

[highstreet]

Yeah, we need a LATOC boot camp! 

I have one here in Columbus, Ohio.

We, my friends and family, have a farm in need of an overhaul.  Plenty of Perennial Gardens, Orchard, and homes in the foundation laying stage. 

Building a Doomstead is LATOC boot camp.

Now taking applications.....PM me if interested.

[Phildo]

I'm with Dry Observer, this left me scratching my head a bit, but maybe for different reasons.  Orlov posits a more or less apocalyptic scenario and then spends the bulk of the presentation discussing societal-level and personal ways to mitigate post-collapse hardship.

. . ..

That actually is a fair description of traditional Scenario Planning.  It is generally not supposed to be a prediction or declaration of faith-based-truth -- the way Doomerism obsession with the Worst Case has become around here.

Start with a Scenario -- Find a Worst Case, a Changed Case, and a Best Case -- AND (here is the hard part for Doomerism) cover All Three.  Doomerism tends to fixate on the Worst and not even really comprehend why to study the Changed and Best Case.

----------------------------------

Too simple Scenario -- Oil is Done.

Worst Case -- The world goes cold, the wars go hot, 90% die.

Changed Case -- World Wide Power Down continues, We all live on less, and with a lot of hard work over 20 to 40 years gets US and the world transitioned to another, maybe better place and time.

Best Case -- Mr. Fusion fires up tomorrow and all is fine.  Oil?  What Oil?

--------------------------------

Applying all that (again too short) --

Make the Worst Case survivable.  A Doomer strong-point.  

Be flexible and adaptable to meet the Changed Case.  (Changed Case is always the most likely)

And be prepared to profit and thrive in the Best Case.

------------------------------------

As far as using that all for predictions (which again, they are not) the Worst Case and Best Case rarely happen, and some form of a Changed Case most always does.  

[steelmoon]

Gee, thanks for that.

I think he makes it pretty clear that he believes a high-tech resolution to our energy troubles is not forthcoming.

And on that I heartily agree with him.

[joe-bob henry-bob]

I'm actually moving towards spending my money on stuff because of how things are going.  Just thinking about basic things I will be using in the future.  Some extremely tough boots, some "work jeans" that look like they will be super-durable, polypro underwear, a 0 rated sleeping bag, finally settling on a better carry/conceal gun, a sewing kit, stuff like that.  If you DON'T have built-to-last ruggedized clothing essentials like footwear, I say get it NOW.

[Broil]

Well then, how about a nice gold brick or two? A bag of diamonds? Some classic cars? Then you could start your own personal museum of transportation. How about a beautifully restored classic luxury yacht? Then you could use the gold bricks to weigh you down if you ever decide to end it all by jumping overboard.

Here's another brilliant idea: buy green products. Whatever green thing the marketers and advertisers throw at you, buy it, toss it, and buy another one straight away. Repeat until they are out of product, you are out of money, and the landfills are full of green rubbish. That should stimulate the economy. Market research shows that there is a great reservoir of pent-up eco-guilt out there for marketers and advertisers to exploit. Industrial products that help the environment are a bit of an oxymoron. It's a bit like trying to bail out the Titanic using plastic teaspoons.

Another great marketing opportunity for our time is in survival goods. There are some web sites that push all sorts of supplies to put in your private bunker. It's a clever bit of manipulation, actually. Users log in, see that the stock market is down, oil is up, shotgun shells are on sale, so are hunting knives, and if you add a paperback on "surviving financial armageddon" to your shopping cart you qualify for free shipping. Oh and don't forget to add a large tin of dehydrated beans. Fear is a great motivator, and getting people to buy survival goods is almost a matter of operant conditioning: a marketer's dream.
If you want to help save the environment and prepare yourself for a life without access to consumer goods, then doing so by buying consumer goods doesn't seem like such a great plan. A much better thing to do is to BUY NOTHING. But that is not something you can do with money. But there are useful things to do with money, for the time being, if we hurry.

Actually, this is curious advice. In essence, he's telling us we shouldn't buy gold, buy anything "green" (including solar panels, wind/hydro turbines, insulation, etc), or buy survival goods -- that we should, in fact, buy nothing... even if we have the money to spend.

That strikes me as incredibly bad advice. And not just because I don't think Matt is trying to scam us by advertising solar panels and preserved food.

If you expect money to become worthless, why hold onto it? Why wouldn't it make vastly more sense to convert those funds into something useful now, while you can.

Consciously or unconsciously, I think most people who write on these subjects have an agenda. Mine is pretty obvious, and really simple. I don't want to see 2 billion children and infants tortured to death, most of them by the most agonizing method possible, starvation, simply because the world couldn't get its act together. So yeah, I'm committed to saving as much of the population as can be saved. My other, related goal is preventing a general collapse of the biosphere, whether from global warming or any other cause. So yes, people are right to assume I have strong opinions on certain subjects.

Other people actively want to see 90% or more of the human race die out so we can reach whatever they deem a sustainable population, believing that humanity will just keep consuming out of control unless brought dramatically to heel.

Others still would like to see the U.S. or the entire industrialized collapse, either to stop what they see as a relentless consumption of the Earth's resources, to punish those people for past behavior, or both.

And then there are other individuals who may or may not have strong opinions on the above issues, but who would simply like the future to take a shape that they can best take advantage of. Some of these people want a resumption of a business-as-usual economy. Others want a total, anarchic collapse in which they can rise as warlords, tribal elders, or what-have-you. Others want a slow grind down that leaves room for archdruids or whatnot.

And others would just like to keep a relative advantage over others based on the fact that they've been "prepping" before anyone else. An advantage that would be wiped out in an eyeblink if everyone abruptly started gardening, retrofitting homes, rebuilding their economies, and turning everything sustainable and hyper-efficient.

I really don't know what motivates particular commentators in sharing their ideas, I only know what drives mine. And in fairness, sometimes people just make mistakes. But telling people not to buy food, or seeds, or literally anything?

That is, to my mind, a huge mistake. At best.

+1

[The End of Suburbia]

>  But...he is still making plenty of money off of the "collapse" now, before the collapse.

Maybe, although I can't imagine he is making a whole lot of money.

Everyone who is aware of the coming collapse is probably profiting from it in some way...even by their very knowledge of it.

I console myself in that realization by remembering that most people don't want to know about it.

Been waiting for something like this from Dmitry, in light of how fast the economy is going down the pan.

He has the advantage, of actually having seen what doom looks like, so he has something worth saying. The thing I like about his world view is his pragmatism, something possibly born out of his experience in the FSU. If anyone comes forward, espousing a super plan to rescue everyone, it's probably wise to take his advice and walk away ... rapidly.

Might be a good idea to discuss his ideas in this thread, after reading the article a couple of times. And, to reiterate, this guy has seen doom at first hand, so he knows what works and what doesn't.

But...he is still making plenty of money off of the "collapse" now, before the collapse.
Even though he is certainly an authority on the subject that does not mean that he is trustworthy.

[Phildo]

Gee, thanks for that.

I think he makes it pretty clear that he believes a high-tech resolution to our energy troubles is not forthcoming.

And on that I heartily agree with him.

Make it a third.  

Best Case (as with Worst Case) rarely, if ever happens.

[heretic]

Been waiting for something like this from Dmitry, in light of how fast the economy is going down the pan.

He has the advantage, of actually having seen what doom looks like, so he has something worth saying. The thing I like about his world view is his pragmatism, something possibly born out of his experience in the FSU. If anyone comes forward, espousing a super plan to rescue everyone, it's probably wise to take his advice and walk away ... rapidly.

Might be a good idea to discuss his ideas in this thread, after reading the article a couple of times. And, to reiterate, this guy has seen doom at first hand, so he knows what works and what doesn't.

But...he is still making plenty of money off of the "collapse" now, before the collapse.
Even though he is certainly an authority on the subject that does not mean that he is trustworthy.

I'm banning you just for being an idiot. No Dmitry is not 100% virgin pure wool but to imply he's not generally trustworthy when he's done nothing to cause anybody not to trust him well that is just stupid and this board is not for stupid people. If you want to complain go over to Peak Oil Debunked and bitch and moan your heart out.

[Grower]

I sure profited. I cashed out all the retirement I could and didn't watch it collapse 40%. Of course I had to pay tax and penalty on just over 40%, but I got the KEEP the rest. Lots of debt payoff and preps as a result. So yeah, we profit. Because we use our freakin' brains and read this site and Orlov and others. And if they make enough to live on as a result, MORE POWER TO THEM!!

[JurisDoctorOfDoom]

I sure profited. I cashed out all the retirement I could and didn't watch it collapse 40%. Of course I had to pay tax and penalty on just over 40%, but I got the KEEP the rest. Lots of debt payoff and preps as a result. So yeah, we profit. Because we use our freakin' brains and read this site and Orlov and others. And if they make enough to live on as a result, MORE POWER TO THEM!!

Wow, that's great to hear, I don't think there is anything as exciting and rewarding as getting your money out right before it all goes ka-blooey and then being able to look back and say "wow". Weird, but true. Out of curiosity, was there anything in particular - on LATOC or elsewhere - that prompted you to "pull the trigger"?

[Colonel Coconut]

What I got out of Orlov's post is that most if not all attempts at mitigating the presented collapse scenario will be paradoxical in that all of the non-taboo proposals will contribute to the collapse. Maybe that is why he mentioned doing nothing to prepare.

Also,

I don't think there will be a noble "drawing of lots" as the life boats are hit by the storm - more likely it will be drawing of weapons during a deadly game of musical chairs.

Maybe the blueprint and the post collapse plan is the 90/10 option - but no one will be the first to volunteer.

Best to be prepared to feed yourself and your family if things get really bad.

[Grower]

Gee, that's hard to say. Pointing to something specific. If I remember, though, I think I started a thread to discuss it, or somebody did. I think it was in June or July 2008. I got a lot of input and procedural advice from LATOC'ers. Robert was writing a lot then, and he was full of information. I knew we had to do something before September. So we did, in August. Wow. Almost a year now. I socked the percentage we had to pay in taxes into a bank account and we used the rest to finish paying off debt. We still have a mortgage, having built in 2001, but it's not horribly high and we have a good interest rate on it with a locally-owned bank.

I now debate back and forth about whether we should pay it down as fast as we can, prep more with extra cash, keep more around as cash, buy PMs or what. That'll be the next step, I guess. Part of that is our debate on inflation. I did put the retirement funds I couldn't cash out into an inflation-linked bond fund. Not paying a lot now, but I'm hedging on the inflation side and at least it doesn't lose money.

Nobody in our family or friends knows we did this. They'd freak. Still not really on board. That's another reason a place like LATOC is priceless.

edit@add: It occurs to me that I REALLY MISS Robert's updates. <sigh> Also, as a side note, pulling our retirement money out of its accounts was just about the scariest thing I ever did financially. But yes, it's great to say wow, thank goodness.

[Recovering Cornucopian]

The benefit of Orlov, is that he has already gotten past the "it couldn't possibly happen to us" syndrome.

Living through the collapse of one empire will do that to you, living through a second makes you a good person to know.