New Mega-Post from Dmitry Orlov: "Definancialisation, Deglobalisation . . ."

[Ana]

Been waiting for something like this from Dmitry, in light of how fast the economy is going down the pan.

He has the advantage, of actually having seen what doom looks like, so he has something worth saying. The thing I like about his world view is his pragmatism, something possibly born out of his experience in the FSU. If anyone comes forward, espousing a super plan to rescue everyone, it's probably wise to take his advice and walk away ... rapidly.

Might be a good idea to discuss his ideas in this thread, after reading the article a couple of times. And, to reiterate, this guy has seen doom at first hand, so he knows what works and what doesn't.

But...he is still making plenty of money off of the "collapse" now, before the collapse.
Even though he is certainly an authority on the subject that does not mean that he is trustworthy.

[JurisDoctorOfDoom]

My only beef with Dmitry is on the psychological issues.  He and Carolyn Baker always seem to be all over the map on this stuff and say things like be resolute, but not inflexible.  WTF.  Like take what Dmitry said there about the value of being stubborn and tough, which is somewhat in contrast with this:

An equally useful quality in a crisis is apathy. The Russian people are exceptionally patient: even in the worst of post-collapse times, they did not riot, and there were no significant protests. They coped as best they could. The safest group of people to be with in a crisis is one that does not share strong ideological convictions, is not easily swayed by argument, and does not possess an overdeveloped, exclusive sense of identity.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Archives2008/OrlovLessonsPartThree.html

I think the best way to articulate this would be to draw an analogy with the human body. Some parts of the body are best suited for STABILITY. The lower back is one good example, too much MOBILITY is bad for the lower back. But the shoulder is different. It needs lots of mobility. The hips are a mix, they need equal parts both stability and mobility.

Analogizing this to the human character:

Stability = Resoluteness

Mobility = Flexibility

Now there are some physical pursuits that require a huge amount of mobility/flexibility. Yoga for instance. Others require stability. Powerliifting being a good example. Some require a combo of both, such as throwing a baseball. In terms of surviving tough times, there will be situations which require disproportionate amounts of resoluteness (such as standing up to a Corporate Biotech Company's GMO goon squad) others that require disproportionate amounts of flexiblity (such as being comfortable making a living that is totally different than what you had trained for during the good times), some will require equal amounts of both.

[JurisDoctorOfDoom]

Been waiting for something like this from Dmitry, in light of how fast the economy is going down the pan.

He has the advantage, of actually having seen what doom looks like, so he has something worth saying. The thing I like about his world view is his pragmatism, something possibly born out of his experience in the FSU. If anyone comes forward, espousing a super plan to rescue everyone, it's probably wise to take his advice and walk away ... rapidly.

Might be a good idea to discuss his ideas in this thread, after reading the article a couple of times. And, to reiterate, this guy has seen doom at first hand, so he knows what works and what doesn't.

But...he is still making plenty of money off of the "collapse" now, before the collapse.
Even though he is certainly an authority on the subject that does not mean that he is trustworthy.

I'm banning you just for being an idiot. No Dmitry is not 100% virgin pure wool but to imply he's not generally trustworthy when he's done nothing to cause anybody not to trust him well that is just stupid and this board is not for stupid people. If you want to complain go over to Peak Oil Debunked and bitch and moan your heart out.

[Deckard1973]

Been waiting for something like this from Dmitry, in light of how fast the economy is going down the pan.

He has the advantage, of actually having seen what doom looks like, so he has something worth saying. The thing I like about his world view is his pragmatism, something possibly born out of his experience in the FSU. If anyone comes forward, espousing a super plan to rescue everyone, it's probably wise to take his advice and walk away ... rapidly.

Might be a good idea to discuss his ideas in this thread, after reading the article a couple of times. And, to reiterate, this guy has seen doom at first hand, so he knows what works and what doesn't.

But...he is still making plenty of money off of the "collapse" now, before the collapse.
Even though he is certainly an authority on the subject that does not mean that he is trustworthy.

I'm banning you just for being an idiot. No Dmitry is not 100% virgin pure wool but to imply he's not generally trustworthy when he's done nothing to cause anybody not to trust him well that is just stupid and this board is not for stupid people. If you want to complain go over to Peak Oil Debunked and bitch and moan your heart out.

On behalf of all the other LATOCers, thank you Matt!

And on your observation of the physical, a fellow doomer and I were discussing how if we tried to make the jump from the MSM lifestyle (i.e. job, house in the burbs, 2 cars, shop at the local big box store etc) to the self sustained micro-farm (doomstead) and return to a simpler lifestyle (no TV, internet, maybe radio, reduced oil dependency) we would probably have to go through some cathartic physical journey, like hiking the AT trail.  Something to strip away of the materialistic world, down to our core selves.  Wake up from the sleep walk through life, break the stagnant way of thinking and think outside of the box. 
Marine Corps boot camp does that to ya. 

[cushngtree]

Yeah, we need a LATOC boot camp! 

[Dry Observer]

My only beef with Dmitry is on the psychological issues.  He and Carolyn Baker always seem to be all over the map on this stuff and say things like be resolute, but not inflexible.  WTF.  Like take what Dmitry said there about the value of being stubborn and tough, which is somewhat in contrast with this:

An equally useful quality in a crisis is apathy. The Russian people are exceptionally patient: even in the worst of post-collapse times, they did not riot, and there were no significant protests. They coped as best they could. The safest group of people to be with in a crisis is one that does not share strong ideological convictions, is not easily swayed by argument, and does not possess an overdeveloped, exclusive sense of identity.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Archives2008/OrlovLessonsPartThree.html

all the psychological talk - yes including that of Dmitry and Caroly - is basically worthless sans something to do with the *physical body*. You can't think or contemplate your way to being resolute or flexible or whatever. You need to have some type of *physical body* practice that hardwires the characteristic or trait into your flesh and blood body. This is totally lost on most people, in my experience, including really smart ones like Dmitry and Carolyn who seem to focus - at least so far as I can ascertain from their writings - on what goes on in the head. So if somebody needs to be more flexible in their character, they need a physical practice like yoga. Or if they need to learn to be more confrontational then some type of aggressive martial art. You can't just think or will or imagine your way into being more flexible or resolute although conceptualizing it is part of the process of internalizing it.

Yes. In practice you can work relentlessly at being flexible or resolute in your daily work and life, but nothing changes outlook quite so fast as putting your body into motion. Even some incredibly powerful accelerated-learning techniques I know of, such as Borrowed Genius first concentrate on the "felt experience" of doing what in visualized in their practices, then on doing the activity and continuing to switch back and forth between BG and the exercise, and then finally to "rebalance" your mind after any such heavy mental work you should... do some light exercise.

Some serious martial arts in particular would, I suspect, be very helpful to an awful lot of people. In fact, if it weren't a bit dangerous, freerunning, aka parkour, might be ideal for people having to deal with the urban sprawl in a hard crash. Just psychologically knowing you were no longer bound to the concrete canyons would be incredibly liberating to one's mindset.

Speaking of mental blocks, one thing that's amazing to me is the assumption that a lot of heavy yet not backbreaking labor on the homestead is a big barrier to some folks. I'm by no means the Ultimate Mountain Man, yet doing some shovel or pitchfork work for several hours is practically a day off, from my perspective... the result of having done plenty of this work as both an adult and a kid. Get used to doing some of these things physically, and you won't have to worry about whether you're "up to it" when the time comes. If you don't kill yourself doing it (heat exhaustion, throwing out your back), it's surprising just how much you can get done with your hands with just a little work and a tiny bit of skill.

Speaking of which, I should probably do some overnight camping for just that reason, even though I intend to stay right here. I know I can camp outdoors without much trouble, but it might help expand my horizons a bit to be doing it.

[FullRefusal]

Well I have every trait of a survivor as I knew I did. I get a lot of shit around here for being like that but I guess most people who give me shit for being like this won't be around to hate me Seriously...FUCK OFF should be your complete and utter mindset if you want to survive it's all mental. I refuse to lose in any fight, or refuse to not succeed, hence I do. Ranger school..I refused to give up or fail..so I didnt'. It's all in the mind.

[unrepentantcowboy]

I think some people perceive there's lots of money to be made writing and selling books.

While someone like Stephen King or John Grisham may be wealthy, most books generate very little money for the author. I doubt I made minimum wage on Contrabando when all expenses and the amount of time I spent doing research, writing, editing and then finally marketing the book are considered. Truth is, I probably made no money at all.

[JurisDoctorOfDoom]

I think some people perceive there's lots of money to be made writing and selling books.

While someone like Stephen King or John Grisham may be wealthy, most books generate very little money for the author. I doubt I made minimum wage on Contrabando when all expenses and the amount of time I spent doing research, writing, editing and then finally marketing the book are considered. Truth is, I probably made no money at all.

Yes, for those who don't know, commissions on paperbacks are usually about $1 a book. If the book sells 50,000 copies - which very, very, very, few ever do - and it takes the author 12-18 months to write it he/she is making maybe about as much as a teacher but sans any sort of benefits, even if you factor in a few speaking gigs.

[Ellie]

My only beef with Dmitry is on the psychological issues.  He and Carolyn Baker always seem to be all over the map on this stuff and say things like be resolute, but not inflexible.  WTF.  Like take what Dmitry said there about the value of being stubborn and tough, which is somewhat in contrast with this:

An equally useful quality in a crisis is apathy. The Russian people are exceptionally patient: even in the worst of post-collapse times, they did not riot, and there were no significant protests. They coped as best they could. The safest group of people to be with in a crisis is one that does not share strong ideological convictions, is not easily swayed by argument, and does not possess an overdeveloped, exclusive sense of identity.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Archives2008/OrlovLessonsPartThree.html

I don't see that as being contradictory to what was quoted in the OP here at all. He's talking about the same qualities; only using slightly different terms. Indifference to suffering could be described as apathy and patience. And being stubborn is just another way of saying "not easily swayed by argument" - his point, I believe, is that one should have a resolute will to survive, but not to be too attached to how that happens. For instance, a free-market devotee is going to have a lot better chance of surviving if they are willing, if circumstances dictate, to join a community that has a firmly socialist or even communist philosophy. And the opposite holds true as well - depending on the nature of the collapse, someone who normally embraces collectivism might need to get in touch with their inner cut-throat capitalist in order to ensure their own survival.

[slow_dazzle]

I think some people perceive there's lots of money to be made writing and selling books.

While someone like Stephen King or John Grisham may be wealthy, most books generate very little money for the author. I doubt I made minimum wage on Contrabando when all expenses and the amount of time I spent doing research, writing, editing and then finally marketing the book are considered. Truth is, I probably made no money at all.

I'm writing an architecture book in my own time - agreed - writing does NOT pay well unless one is a superstar author. The amount of time input, versus amount of remuneration, is way out of synch. I'm doing it as a labour of love.

And it's way late. (Hope the publisher doesn't suss how much time I spend on LATOC)

[Tropicalgirl]

Thanks JDD for this Orlov piece, thought provoking and I like his pragmatic style.  He's seen collapse firsthand and explains things in a way that works for me.

Deckard - if you decide to walk the AT check this book out first - it has hilarious stories about preparing for the hike - Bill Bryson's A Walk in the Woods, http://www.amazon.com/Walk-Woods-Rediscovering-Appalachian-Official/dp/0767902521

[JohnLudi]

I think some people perceive there's lots of money to be made writing and selling books.

While someone like Stephen King or John Grisham may be wealthy, most books generate very little money for the author. I doubt I made minimum wage on Contrabando when all expenses and the amount of time I spent doing research, writing, editing and then finally marketing the book are considered. Truth is, I probably made no money at all.

Yep.

I feel your pain...it's even worse with music, what with torrent files and all.

Art is one of the few things that redeems civilization...and you don't get a lot of thanks for it...or cash...

[Dry Observer]

Well then, how about a nice gold brick or two? A bag of diamonds? Some classic cars? Then you could start your own personal museum of transportation. How about a beautifully restored classic luxury yacht? Then you could use the gold bricks to weigh you down if you ever decide to end it all by jumping overboard.

Here's another brilliant idea: buy green products. Whatever green thing the marketers and advertisers throw at you, buy it, toss it, and buy another one straight away. Repeat until they are out of product, you are out of money, and the landfills are full of green rubbish. That should stimulate the economy. Market research shows that there is a great reservoir of pent-up eco-guilt out there for marketers and advertisers to exploit. Industrial products that help the environment are a bit of an oxymoron. It's a bit like trying to bail out the Titanic using plastic teaspoons.

Another great marketing opportunity for our time is in survival goods. There are some web sites that push all sorts of supplies to put in your private bunker. It's a clever bit of manipulation, actually. Users log in, see that the stock market is down, oil is up, shotgun shells are on sale, so are hunting knives, and if you add a paperback on "surviving financial armageddon" to your shopping cart you qualify for free shipping. Oh and don't forget to add a large tin of dehydrated beans. Fear is a great motivator, and getting people to buy survival goods is almost a matter of operant conditioning: a marketer's dream.
If you want to help save the environment and prepare yourself for a life without access to consumer goods, then doing so by buying consumer goods doesn't seem like such a great plan. A much better thing to do is to BUY NOTHING. But that is not something you can do with money. But there are useful things to do with money, for the time being, if we hurry.

Actually, this is curious advice. In essence, he's telling us we shouldn't buy gold, buy anything "green" (including solar panels, wind/hydro turbines, insulation, etc), or buy survival goods -- that we should, in fact, buy nothing... even if we have the money to spend.

That strikes me as incredibly bad advice. And not just because I don't think Matt is trying to scam us by advertising solar panels and preserved food.

If you expect money to become worthless, why hold onto it? Why wouldn't it make vastly more sense to convert those funds into something useful now, while you can.

Consciously or unconsciously, I think most people who write on these subjects have an agenda. Mine is pretty obvious, and really simple. I don't want to see 2 billion children and infants tortured to death, most of them by the most agonizing method possible, starvation, simply because the world couldn't get its act together. So yeah, I'm committed to saving as much of the population as can be saved. My other, related goal is preventing a general collapse of the biosphere, whether from global warming or any other cause. So yes, people are right to assume I have strong opinions on certain subjects.

Other people actively want to see 90% or more of the human race die out so we can reach whatever they deem a sustainable population, believing that humanity will just keep consuming out of control unless brought dramatically to heel.

Others still would like to see the U.S. or the entire industrialized world collapse, either to stop what they see as a relentless consumption of the Earth's resources, to punish those people for past behavior, or both.

And then there are other individuals who may or may not have strong opinions on the above issues, but who would simply like the future to take a shape that they can best take advantage of. Some of these people want a resumption of a business-as-usual economy. Others want a total, anarchic collapse in which they can rise as warlords, tribal elders, or what-have-you. Others want a slow grind down that leaves room for archdruids or whatnot.

And others would just like to keep a relative advantage over others based on the fact that they've been "prepping" before anyone else. An advantage that would be wiped out in an eyeblink if everyone abruptly started gardening, retrofitting homes, rebuilding their economies, and turning everything sustainable and hyper-efficient.

I really don't know what motivates particular commentators in sharing their ideas, I only know what drives mine. And in fairness, sometimes people just make mistakes. But telling people not to buy food, or seeds, or literally anything?

That is, to my mind, a huge mistake. At best.

[Doomerific]

Been waiting for something like this from Dmitry, in light of how fast the economy is going down the pan.

He has the advantage, of actually having seen what doom looks like, so he has something worth saying. The thing I like about his world view is his pragmatism, something possibly born out of his experience in the FSU. If anyone comes forward, espousing a super plan to rescue everyone, it's probably wise to take his advice and walk away ... rapidly.

Might be a good idea to discuss his ideas in this thread, after reading the article a couple of times. And, to reiterate, this guy has seen doom at first hand, so he knows what works and what doesn't.

But...he is still making plenty of money off of the "collapse" now, before the collapse.
Even though he is certainly an authority on the subject that does not mean that he is trustworthy.

I'm banning you just for being an idiot. No Dmitry is not 100% virgin pure wool but to imply he's not generally trustworthy when he's done nothing to cause anybody not to trust him well that is just stupid and this board is not for stupid people. If you want to complain go over to Peak Oil Debunked and bitch and moan your heart out.

On behalf of all the other LATOCers, thank you Matt!

And on your observation of the physical, a fellow doomer and I were discussing how if we tried to make the jump from the MSM lifestyle (i.e. job, house in the burbs, 2 cars, shop at the local big box store etc) to the self sustained micro-farm (doomstead) and return to a simpler lifestyle (no TV, internet, maybe radio, reduced oil dependency) we would probably have to go through some cathartic physical journey, like hiking the AT trail.  Something to strip away of the materialistic world, down to our core selves.  Wake up from the sleep walk through life, break the stagnant way of thinking and think outside of the box. 
Marine Corps boot camp does that to ya. 

I'm on that journey right now and it's the most mentally challenging thing I've ever done.  Just about everyone I know is sure that I have lost my mind.