Think you are really ready for SHTF? It can get quite scary.

I have some time here, as I arrived 2 hrs early and now my flight was delayed an hour.

I have received a few PM’s, asking some good questions. I called both Tom and Bill ( to see his naive take, like mine) and have dovetailed these recent comments with notes. So, I thought I would get a jump on the what seems to be the most prevalent question.

The number one question was: Why does he think it will be a slow burn? Again, expanding on previous comments that his planning has as it’s centerpiece the unfolding of the absolute worst scenarios (total chaos -fuel shortage, grid down, pandemic, food supply interruption, etc.) by which if it is something less scary/nightmarish occurs, it is a welcome modification or an easier implementation of a plan.

To make this point, imagine the opposite; that You took the governments suggestion and dutifully prepped for a week or so of uncomfortable circumstances and a somewhat heightened sense of awareness/safety, made You feel warm, fuzzy, and responsible. But rather than an orderly transition back to ‘normal, safe, and happy’ in short order led by the false hope in the USG/MSM, events quickly escalate to scary with no end or solution in sight. Regardless of what You might hear on the radio, fed by the USG, it doesn’t match with what You see/hear around You. It will be extraordinarily confusing. The USG/MSM will, as a matter of duty and responsibility, not want to trigger panic (likened to shouting “fire” in a movie theatre). At some point, hope that ‘help is truly on the way’ peters out, and is replaced with emotions and actions that are new and foreign to us.

As stated previously, his dear hope between a fast crash and slow burn, is a fast crash. His belief unfortunately, is that we are well into a slow burn, which is what he believes will make what would have been scary, into a longer and more difficult reset. This slow devolution is eating away the already thin veneer of acceptable social behavior. Once we are at, or razer close, to the raw nerve – the ugly side will be an easy transition to vial, survival human behavior. The slow burn due to it’s grinding and unrelenting nature, tends to take out the ‘will’ a few good people/preppers: ‘Finally all dressed up for the dance of their lives, but tired of checking the mailbox for an invitation’.

He said in addition to the real truth about dismal state of our economy, as compared to what we are told is going on, his belief that we are in a slow burn has to do primarily with a couple of years and 100’s of personal stories/observations of just paying attention to what is going on around him, personal friends, family.

Here is a few that he shared:

1.    Observations from his older sister: His sister Ellen is a teacher at a private school. More and more folks are increasingly late in paying tuition and the waiting list disappeared last summer for the 09/10 school year (first time in 70 yrs, no waiting list). The school leaders do not seem to be in panic mode, but do seem to be very serious (cut back on excess copying, electricity use, dramatic thermostat control, downgrading the toilet paper, no more paper towels, etc). Kids are increasingly and openly complaining about Mom and Dad fighting over money. She has three in her class (18 students) this year whose parents declared bankruptcy, 3 who are in divorce, 2 that separated, and 1 who moved in with grandparents. One of her team-mates, had a student whose father committed suicide, two weeks after a bankruptcy finalized in December. Said the teachers lounge was increasingly a depressing place to relax, as the story is always the same; no –money, spouse worried about job loss, and worried that spouse is spending an excessive amount of time out with his buddies/girlfriends (but surprisingly, she found it odd that they can discuss these sad events and then sometimes shift over to silly consumer things - many still go to the spa, manicures, pedicures, etc. (?maybe it is a coping mech). She said many of the kids seemed to see the writing on the wall, whereas during the parent / teacher meetings – everything seems beautiful and happy.

2.   They ordered a pizza last Fall for one of their kids birthdays. It was delivered by one of the VP’s of the med-sized company he works for. The guy was driving ~ 40 miles to Domino’s to go to work 4 nights/wk, to avoid this type of scenario. Tom said that was sobering and awkward moment. You would think he is over-extended, but he said this guy appears to not be flashy at all. The fellow asked for absolute discretion, and said that after wife lost her job last summer, they burned through savings , levered out the 401k loan, and simply cannot make it on one salary. Tom figured the guy was making 70-80k, and appeared to be one of the good ones – even a friend (FYI: he told Tom later that the Pizza gig actually brought in an extra $1,000/month (I am thinking he has to be spending at least $250 of that on fuel).

A few days later, Tom said he saw him in the parking lot and went over to say hello and check on him. His friend seemed to appreciate this, and they talked for a while. The guy told him confidentially that the bank froze the line of credit before Thanksgiving and the business has now ~ 5-6 months left on their reserve cash. After that, it doesn’t look good (Tom works for a company that makes those iron dumpsters) roughly 120 employees, annual sales of $25M. If they don’t get the order from Waste Mgmt, the plan is three lay-off waves within 4 months. Tom and his friend are in round two. The trash business, is not doing well at all.

I found this interesting. The company, without the line of credit realized it could get rough. So they found a metal wholesaler that would buy their steel inventory for .60 on the dollar ($3M on a $5M inventory of metal), such that the bank would could use this formal, legal commitment as collateral to unfreeze that reduced amount. Bank said normally yes, but under these economic conditions - no, they should just sell it now and wind down to a few employees in survival mode. Keep in mind, they owe the bank $24m, and a few execs are not going to pay this off. Doesn’t make sense. They sold the metal, and the employees are clear about what is coming down the pike.

3.    Early last Fall, He went to see his financial advisor (manages the companies 401k, + others) to see what the process looks like to cash out the 401k, not take a loan against it, cash the bloody thing out and take the hits/penalties. She quickly tried to talk him out of it, You know, the “weather the storm is the key to billions”. After she realized he was committed, she pressed on that he would not get the money for a few weeks, so if this was a true emergency – he should reconsider putting his retirement funds at risk. He was fine with waiting. Then the conversation turned and got meaningful. She is struggling. She said that in the last 18 months, she has never been so busy going out of business as the last year (they get paid on commission ~ 1% of the value assets/yr). After a bit of very good discussion about folks living on the 401k loans and stock selling for emergency cash, she said that ~ 50% of her customers have sold out completely, or have taken 401k loans (which is 50% cut in pay). If the current pace continues, and doesn’t get worse, she gives it another ~18 months before she is done.
Tom told me that he still has about 90% of the 401k cash in the bank and after a shocking amount of time and some resources, he remains unconvinced and confused that there is indeed a safe place for cash at the moment. He said he will likely split it up three ways, just to hedge. 1/3 PM, 1/3 Cash, 1/3 preps/real estate (land). He said he wishes he knew where the majors put their money. It is not clear what is the logical and safe choice here.

4.   On his drive in, he passes a food bank (sounded like a salvation army of food) wherein folks get in line three days a week with a buggy/pullcart/rolling suitcase to get food. The busiest day, by far, is Friday. He said over the last year or so, it has grown to where the line appears to be 200-400 when he drives by in am and maybe double that on Fridays (it is closed when he comes home). He said it is noteworthy that maybe a year ago and back, He never saw a line and frankly didn’t even know it was there. There is another food bank, across the line in the next county, that although adds 30 minutes to his trip, he drives by it on Fridays as well just for another data point. He said it is the same scene (different building), and by the looks at some of the nice vehicles and a few of the well dressed folks standing in line, that the former “rich” folks may be driving down to the poorer county, so that they are not seen.

OPINION PIECE

5.   It really doesn’t matter whether or not You believe that there is a conspiracy to bring this down or not (Bilderbergs, CFR, Trilateral, etc.) or that You believe it will come crashing down on it’s own accord (weight) or both. Although interesting and maybe worthy of completing this complicated jigsaw puzzle, it is critically important to remember: Indeed, the conclusion of your belief and the resulting purpose that You and your loved ones survive and/or thrive, demands that we actually act upon these beliefs with purpose, and do not simply believe and hope.

6.   In fast crash scenarios, history teaches us that although there are opportunistic/evil people that surface and seek power/control (and sometimes do), the majority of human beings rally around each other, have hope, help one another, true heroes/leaders surface, and wrongs are made right – but almost without exception – pain is experienced and blood is shed. This scenario usually does not serve evil/power well.

7.   In a slow-grind crash scenario, history teaches us that over time (sometimes many decades) – if the thin veneer of civilized human behavior is slowly eroded – to expose raw nerves and the bare DNA of collective homo-sapiens (which is the most cunning and dangerous predator on earth), the outcome is ultimately a crash resulting in chaos, hopelessness, confusion, and bloodshed. Unpredictable and vicious. There are usually two paths that the survivors of this generalized scenario take. The majority capitulate, and accept the new power , law, which sometimes includes the false sense of security found in slave labor. The minority fight, have hope, seek truth, fairness, justice, no matter how bloody it may be. It often becomes the overwhelming purpose of their lives. It has been said, that in the American Revolution, only 3% of our new Americans fought the Redcoats. Of the men that did not fight, many were in visible and public support of the Kings new colony.

8.    Again, It is his belief that we sadly are well into a wrenching slow crash, though it may be accelerating. This is perceived to most as a good thing (manageable and providing time). The only thing good about this scenario, is that it does provide some time, we simply do not know how much. He feels that once the fuse it lit by some dark swan event generated by the population, this is the time to start filling the reserve tanks.

9.   He surfaced what he does , in the event that it is helpful. Watch/listen to a little MSM / radio for news and compare it to what is learned by keeping our eyes and ears open, touching base and tracking friends, family, business, church, etc. for tell tale signs of a breaking point. Currently, they are worlds apart as to their report of the true ‘State of our Union’. Once MSM starts and maintains reporting of the real and dire situation of the US Economy as reported from Main Street, You know it may be time to review your list.

10.   Lastly, Tom said this may tick some people off, but it has helped quite a few spouses that were reluctant participants of his group. Prepping and preparing for a disaster is not evil nor is it proper to relegate to tinfoil. For centuries, there have been a few folks that have seen the writing on the wall and have prepared. Many times, it never came true. But their lives were likely no worse off from it. For the ones whom did, they survived, and often thrived.

Prepping is often seen by most as a cult, filled with doom and gloom. Whereas some do indeed find comfort in doom and gloom, this should be avoided at all costs. For many however, it fills a purpose for many of us that at least over the last century, has been eroded away. Although the pay is good, pushing papers is not a fulfilling endeavor that feeds the soul (speaking to me here).

It is the emotional/mental element of the storm we know is coming, which we had better really try to ‘prep’ for. It is the toughest.

Sorry for the manifesto, it remains a handicap. I wanted to get to forming groups and going on the offensive. Which were really great conversations.