12-18 Months Left?

[hereticmonk]

Ironically, collapse can occur without any serious interruption of our American democracy. It can be managed completely above-board, with long delays in violence, and any violence may end up very isolated, a few riots, higher crime rates, new limitations on our freedoms, and the return of highwaymen. But you still have democracy. You still vote, you still pay taxes, you still have organized ownership of property, and even a currency or two. The problem is the difference between expectations and delivery. Govt won't be able to deliver very much, and you'll have to work very hard, physically, to get it. But you still have govt. You should consider the complications of having a govt that lets you down, again and again, and makes repeated promises for basic things, like tap water, pavement on the roads, repairing the local bridge, putting in a railroad spur so you have access to cheap transit. Stuff like that will really grate. We may end up going through the conditions which eventually drove Iraq into civil war, though we're actually acclimatized to democracy and equality, something which is NOT the case in the Arab world.

[Anasazi]

Wait, wait! Can we all agree not to elect a government that would have the intelligence and resolve to actually enact some of Heretic's draconian "suggestions" to deal with PO?
I mean, at least until until I've got my own sustainable homestead in the boonies bought and paid for? Right, that's the ticket...

If I may, folks like OH will say "Bring it on!".

[horsedrawn]

Yes well said!!    I have been preparing for this i could say my whole life. I grew up on a farm,i hunt and trap.i have lived without running water for more than a year. I farm with horses,and heat the house with wood.So my thought is yes lets get this ball rolling.

[Widgeon]

a good friend of mine is fond of saying that Bushco are passing laws and edicts as if they are never going to leave ... ya got that right.

[hereticmonk]

Wanna know what our govt is capable of doing during a crash? Read the history of the New Deal during FDR's presidency. That's a lotta public works, and some serious socialism. Now, subtract 3/4 of the fuel and add nuclear weapons.

[SabreKai]

Wait, wait! Can we all agree not to elect a government that would have the intelligence and resolve to actually enact some of Heretic's draconian "suggestions" to deal with PO?

I'm sorry, you already did or someone rigged it so that you have it already. Suck it up. Do what you can to prep, keep your yap shut publicly and stay out of line of sight of the Man.

Sabre

[Jay Dee]

Not so fast....While you are getting ready to bug out you be sure and keep up with some news such as the fact that exxon mobile just received contracts to begin exporting some of our U.S. oil stored under the  Iraq desert in the south end of the country in some reservoirs.... Everybody knows that is why we are there. Its  resources war and this is why we are in it. Not pretty but the way it is. How does that figure into your calculus H2. Irag has more oil than Mexico has ever had or the US I suspect. Its ours now...perhaps mexico will be unable to compete for the oil - they weren't willing to fight for it or support us when we did. Better close those borders fast and get them under control. I am about as concerned about Mexico running over us as I am Cuba. Their best hope is to vote to become our fifty-first state.
The worst mistake you will make is to assume it is time to abandon ship prematurely but there is a lot of reaching for the brass ring around here. Talking about panic - lets go - its just getting more interesting.

[hereticmonk]

It takes 5 years to get a discovery into market. So that's 3.5-4 years AFTER Mexico drives us into Superspike. And only IF they're not lying, and IF they can control the oil. Considering we've lost Iraq oil since the invasion, which drove the last spike in price (10%, remember?), and the locals keep blowing up the pipelines, what level of optimism convinces you that this alleged oil even matters? Its so far in the future only the elites will have access to it, just like the discovery in Ghana, and the Jack2 (and 3, 4, 270, 421,etc) holes.

Butbutbut Nuclear power! Takes 10 years to build a plant, after approval.

Coal! Runs out in 15 years, releases mercury, uranium, and arsenic downwind, and there is no currently scalable and working technology to prevent that. Clean coal is a myth. Clean coal technology is vaporware, it doesn't actually exist in any meaningful way.

Solar! Sorry, the panels are made with silicon so cost a fortune in energy to manufacture and includes expensive rare earths. Cheap ones are expensive and inefficient. Expensive ones cost 8 times more and are only slightly better. Roll printed solar on mylar are vapor ware and no test models are available for public scrutiny, but the company that claims to have a patent is taking govt money for "development"... which means scam is highly probable.

Wind! Wind turbines require immense and expensive maintenance. The least maintenance and most reliable power requires big ones, 500 feet tall, places on ridgelines where there's less turbulence and better and more consistent flow. This reduces operating costs but kills birds AND bats. This is documented, btw. If you built this giant turbines and placed them on EVERY RIDGE in the USA, you would be able to generate 7% of our power needs. Yay! 7%! That's... 7%. That's not even enough to run americas refrigerators.

Ethanol! Generates slightly more energy than is used to grow it in the first place... until you ship it, then it goes negative again. So loser. If you turn all of america's feed corn into ethanol, and stop feeding chickens and pigs and cattle... you can then power 7% of american vehicles. That's enough for the rich people and emergency services. And that's it. Also, there's the small matter of starvation. Ahem.

Butbutbut, whudabout Hydrogen?! Made from natural gas, which we're running out of in most locations (Houston is an exception), it takes more energy to make it then the gas itself delivers when burned, it leaks through solid metal, it turns into acid when exposed to sulphur or water, and requires a pressure vessel to store, so you can't carry very much... so its basically a short range hand grenade waiting for a spark to burn up its driver and anybody nearby. Dumb. Very dumb.

AND howzabout straight electric?! EV's are great. Alas, they use NiMH batteries, using Nickel metal. Ironically, that's running out. There's enough for the Elite, if they're willing to pay high prices for the batteries (higher every year, btw) but not enough for a full fleet of vehicles for the common man. That's you.

So, peasants, where does that leave you? YOu can grow enough plant oil to eat for a year or drive for an hour in the form of biodiesel. Most people would rather eat. You can brew ethanol to run a converted motorcycle or scooter, or get drunk for a week, or eat the grain for a month. Balance out those requirements and it doesn't really sound that how. A bicycle is way more efficient.

Its not so bad. Once they bring back trains burning coal on hybrid electric engines, we'll have some limited transportation which isn't pedal power or one foot in front of another. Areas with hydroelectric, like Buffalo NY and Portland OR will retain their sustainable transit systems (or put in electric trolleys if they want them). Coal fired powerplants are dirty. People will die from their fumes, but they must be used in order to provide power while they build nuclear powerplants, which have radioactive waste but are better than nothing. Wind turbines and solar will be built too. A combination of all of the above will go into place so there's some civilization still working, and people will just deal with it. That's how it is. Oh, and how much power should you expect to have with all this? In the Western states, around 15%. In the east? Around 40%. Get used to the blackouts. They are inevitable.

[Jay Dee]

Its ok if your scared heretic - you aren't the first. We aren't talking new discoveries in Iraq. Active wells . Just calm down - everything will be okay. Just keep preparing. If you abandon ship when the boat is still floating you could get in over your head without reason...

[hereticmonk]

I was being sarcastic. Looks like I need to label that.

[Jay Dee]

we are in the process of doing final checks on a nuclear plant here in alabama - it should be up to one hundred percent anyday now.
Who cares if birds and bayts get caught in wind generators if it is the difference between watching saturday night live and having chats here - to hell with the birds. 500' tall my ass. You need to reread that one H2.

Just keep coming back. You have done some reading but you need to polish your frigging crystal ball. You could scare people with all of your hand wringing. Maybe you need some medicine - get some while it lsasts - valium maybe? or lithium....
You can't run from this one H2 regardless of your desire to be somewhere else - but don't jump too early - unless, of course, you are feeling kind fo froggy.

I bet this time next year if you haven't bugged out we will still be here listening to you read your crystal ball... Did you learn that in Sunday School...lol

[Syberberg]

Heretic,

The stories about birds and bats being killed by wind turbines is pure anti-renewable propaganda. Ever seen a bird fly into the branches of a tree when it's windy? No, you haven't and you never will. The same with bats, their echo location is way too good for that. There's documented cases of bats flying through a domestic fan when it was turned on and spinning at approx 100rpm. Also, if a bat can fly through a hoe only just wider than itself, in the pitch black of night, to get to it's roost, they can easily miss the slowly rotating blades of a wind turbine. Also, if they fly around in completely unlit caves without hitting the walls, stalagtites/stalagmites and the roof, they can easily avoid wind turbines.

For more on myth of wind turbines being bad for airbourne wildlife follow these links:

http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/28293/story.htm

http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/18167/

http://www.wind-energie.de/en/topics/protection-of-birds/

And here's something on bat echolocation:

http://research.amnh.org/users/nyneve/bats.html


Unless you were being sarcastic, of course.

[The Boonetuckian]

Here's a part of the Mexician dynamic that could really make a bad situation worse.

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2007/06/journal_mexicos.html#comments

[hereticmonk]

1. I know a wind turbine repairman. Bird and bat kills were found daily. Most of the birds were protected or endangered species so many of the windmills were shut down by court order. He witnessed some kills take place. Raptor flew right into the blades. Bat kills are well documented in West VA. It seems the echolocation is a little too slow, but the reports I've read are still working out a means to scaring them off. Why does that matter? Bats eat more than their weight in mosquitos every night. How do you feel about mosquito borne illness? Malaria? Dengue hemorrhagic fever? Spinal Meningitis? Ebola Zaire? Those are already carried by mosquitoes. How about H5N1? West Nile Virus? SARS? One wonders how long before those mutate into mosquito borne variants.

2. Yes, the good turbines, like the GE 4-5 MW models, really do go 500 feet high, and have 150 foot blades. There are quite a few in the Bay Area. The taller they are, the cleaner the air, the more efficient their power production is. Even so, lots of maintenance is needed for most wind turbines. The less turbulence, the better, so the ridgelines are the best option. I have read several books on the subject, plus my friends has told me all sorts of horror stories about wind gusts. Turbines are a lot less sustainable than you think they are. Those prop blades and bearings don't grow on trees, after all. They cost money, labor, energy to mine or recycle the metal, energy to purify and cast it, energy to machine it, energy to bring it to the site and ship the ruined ones back, and depending on the vagaries of wind power and turbulence, how often they have to be replaced.

3. I never said I was afraid of this. I've already been through the stages of grief and known about this weakness in our civilization longer than some of you have been alive. Ahem. And no, I'm not being sarcastic. I wrote the above post to strip away all hope of technological solutions you may be clinging to, and expose the cost of maintaining even limited civilization, so you can accept the ugly reality that no matter what, there will be at least some degree of collapse. Many people react poorly to the news and make childish dismissal comments because they are very uncomfortable at having the rug pulled out of their expectations.

4. The USA needs dozens of nuclear power plants to replace its coal and natural gas fired plants. Once approved by the public, it will take years of study to approve them as safe designs, then 10 years to actually build them. If they rush, there's an accident. Its great that Alabama got theirs, but that does squat for everywhere else.  And it doesn't solve the problems of drought in the South this year.

If folks would rather continue with heads in the sand, that is their prerogative. Grief can cause bitter and angry rejection of uncomfortable news.

[Jay Dee]

Some folks certainly have their heads in the sand but the predominant position on this forum I suspect/specualte is that ttechnology and alternatives will make the crash more tolerable as we go down. That said the key question is how soona nd how hard. I htink you have provided an excellent position for what you believe is comin and doubt many will disagree here except with the timing and perhaps the severity - at least initally. I do not myself see Mexico as a lynchpin you describe - but cannot disagree with much pof what you said. I was being a tad sarcastic myself but it is obvious and good you have done your homework (wish all would or had done as much as you before offering up giant scenarios of doom) but speculation is just that - we will only find out who is most accurate in time(unfortunately no wagers/pools have been started)  - hopefully you will be wrong - I sure want you to be wrong -  - I could sure use some more time - perhaps I am doing the wishful thinking myself. Good posts - with substance - btw.