12-18 Months Left?

[hereticmonk]

For the last six years I've been studying peak oil. I'm a geologist by training, though not by trade, so I can spot the BS and decode the science in the gibberish. The short of it is, even if NOTHING HAPPENS in any of the critical oil areas to reduce supply and cause a Superspike (fast price rise = fast collapse onset), Mexico's Cantarell Field is falling at 15% a year. That's a fact. Additionally, Mexico derives 60% of its social services from that oil wealth by selling it out of the country for hard currency and food. Without the oil being exported, Mexico can't support enough of its social services to stave off the Socialists who nearly won the last election, in which each side got 51% of the vote. Yes, each side.


Do the math....


Okay, that means there was vote fraud, and both sides are eying each other suspiciously and guns are being passed around, knives sharpened, bombs build and ammo stockpiled. Mexico is a powderkeg and its last revolution a century ago was ineffective at resolving its problems of endemic poverty and corruption. So even a small decline in social services is enough to spark revolution. The Cantarell field will stop exporting oil sometime in the next 12-18 months and due to legal mess of Mexico, foreign investment is impossible. So Mexico is up the proverbial creek without its proverbial paddle.

So, what does this mean? Revolution is VERY likely, even highly probable following this social service collapse. Even if it doesn't, many more Mexican citizens MUST gain money elsewhere so their families can survive. Right now, about 1 million Mexican citizens come to El Norte (USA) for work, doing hard jobs for substandard wages and sending the money home so their wives and children can eat. Its estimated that each Mexican worker is supporting about 30 Mexican citizens. Without the current social services in Mexico, that number will drop, so more Mexicans MUST come north to take care of their families, something like 3 million a year. As things get worse in Mexico, it is even more probable that real revolution will break out, and Mexican families will start fleeing the violence there, and bring it with them across the border. The violence that's killed 2000 people in Sonora, Mexico could easily spread into Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, and California. The backlash by residents is already happening. The backlash by the Feds is a wildcard because we'll have a new president then. So who knows if they'll welcome them with open arms and free handouts or minefields and machinegun nests? The consequences of YET ANOTHER WAR WITH MEXICO are grim. The USA has fought more wars with Mexico than any other country, despite the relative peace in the last century. Check your history.

That's not the worst of it. Without the oil Mexico provides, around 11% of US total consumption, the price will rise to destroy that 11% of demand, thus forcing people to reduce their driving, to trade in their Escalades for Priuses, and to carpool. The price required for that I've already documented in another post here, but its not cheap, $10/gal minimum, just to get (ordinary) people changing their habits. It gets worse too. Mexico is not the only place with declining production. Most of the fields in the Persian Gulf are failing, at around 12% taken altogether. Venezuela is ruled by a dictator who's showing a flare for self destructive actions, mimicking those of the president of Zimbabwe (a man in serious need of assassination), and Nigeria has a civil war they pleasantly call "troubles" and rebels they call "youths". Oh, and Alberta is seeing a collapse of its natural gas supplies, finally, so kiss off those tar sands. And finally, domestic ethanol is capable of delivering 7% of current needs. That's it. Wind power is likewise, when fully developed on EVERY RIDGE IN AMERICA, able to give us 7% of our current power supply. We can burn coal, and deal with the consequences to avoid power blackouts, but its no charming deal, when all is said and done.

So there's no slow collapse. There's a fast spike coming, very soon, in the next 12-18 months. You can forget about slow change and happy days. Sorry for the bad news, but this isn't a side for optimism, is it.

[Ponzu]

Tell me it ain't so...  I'm not ready, I don't want to see the world end.  Damnit, the forums told me to take a break from all this stuff.  Why didn't I listen?  I have too much time on my hands and not enough of a life I guess.  I hate the world in the state its in, but I'd hate it even more in the state that its going to be in.

The scariest part is, I'm not even sure we'd win against Mexico.  Our military sucks.  We can turn a continent into ashes, or level a city, but besides that we suck, we have no lasting power.  Case in point, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan...  The government doesn't care what happens to us.  I wouldn't be surprised if they gave Mexico their lands back, as long as there was something in it for them.  They don't even acknowledge New Orleans, our modern day Atlantis.  We just exist to be used and manipulated by the antisocial politicians in power and the sociopath corporations.  Our nation is one giant insane asylum where the residents get free access to vast arsenals of military equipment and an undermined Constitution.

[hereticmonk]

Breathe.

Now, we're not talking about war WITH Mexico. We're talking about Mexico having a civil war and driving its desperate citizens here to work, or escape the violence and persecution there. Most of the fighting and turmoil will be in Mexico. Some will spill over into the USA, which will bring about some retaliation and public dissent over the people bringing the trouble with them.

We can't do anything about the timing. 12-18 months is just about written in stone. The only way that date changes is by it happening even sooner for a different reason. If there were a superspike tomorrow, it would really help Mexico as the extra oil revenue would sustain Mexico and they could decrease their pumping sooner to make the oil last. That's about the ONLY way to stave off civil war in Mexico.

I guess that's not that great after all. On the bright side, civil war in Mexico may delay or deny one here in the USA, so things might be better here and we'll learn from their poor example and cooperate humanely, maybe. There's a little room for optimism even with fuel running around $10/gal or more.

[tecumseh]

You damn near broke the doomometer with that post hereticmonk.  Oh hell.  I'm going for week of happy motoring tomorrow with my boy while we can still see some beautiful things.  No PO for a week.  Maybe I'll get lucky and there won't be any gas available in Upper Muchigan to get back to the Metro Detroit Fedghetto.  

[Iron Helix]

No chance the US won't dump some foreign aid on them?

[lady-t]

well i am officially screwed if the 12-18 month thing happens,  guess i will just have to migrate with my horses and be a gypsy.  better start learning about wild foods

[OldHorseman]

   I've got SHTF on my calendar for late '08, and TEOTWAWKI (Damned Dirty Apes!) for '12...

   Plan for that, and if they somehow manage to keep the house of cards propped up longer, you'll just be ahead of the game.

[turnipgirl]

exactly one of the reasons I worry about having time when we get home stateside- and thats not even the main one I worry about.  Hubby is trying to see if we can get out of here a couple of months early.

[hereticmonk]

Look, I'm really sorry but this is just how reality is. There is some small chance for a very temporary suppression of civil war and civil unrest in Mexico by outside support of social services, however since Mexico runs on graft, the blood money must flow or the country disentegrates. As its an unsustainable model in the first place, there is no happy ending, and even a delay is unlikely without an earlier superspike to allow them to reduce production, which only buys them a few months, not years. Its even less likely that Mexico can change its constitution to allow development of its oil wealth, and that takes 5 years to get producing too, though some technologies might help in a couple years time. Realistically, that's well after the initial superspike hits. Just attempting to change the constitution would cause a civil war, so you end up at the same place in history. There's no happy ending. Its not a solvable problem. Really it isn't.

Where does that leave us? We're going to lose that 11% of oil supply and see our fuel prices double (like they did the LAST TIME we lost 10% of our fuel supply, Iraq). You should be prepared for that hardship and decide if your job will be able to operate with that increased cost, and whether your home is sustainable in those conditions where commuting is more expensive and businesses are reorganizing to deal with doubling transportation costs. Its possible that homegrown mitigation will happen but I wouldn't count on work at home information jobs, since most of those can be either outsourced to India or replaced with clever software. Businesses are in it to make money. However, don't completely write off the burbs, as long as there's either good farmland nearby or the lots are big enough to garden with. If they're too small, violence will take over and when the burbs are 1/2 or 1/4 the population, stripping houses of wiring and pipes, or just burning them down for their land, that will result in enough room to farm. That's some years in the future though, after the first few bouts of famine. With the crash so close we're going to lose people. Of course, there's still the matter of all that feed corn being grown for ethanol. Its not much fuel, but not all of it has to be turned into fuel, either. Dry feed corn, in large quantity... waiting to be ground into meal and shipped around the country to keep us alive. Its one option. It will need to be stretched a couple years while we reorganize and garden, and to do that we must stop feeding the world. Sorry world. That will get the balance restored in population, very abruptly, starting with India and China, plus it takes care of that Outsourcing problem mentioned earlier. It also puts the onus of manufacturing back domestically since our currency will be worthless without China to support it buying debt.

Did I mention this is complicated? It is. Very. Over the last 6 years of research I've done on this problem, I've found that all the problems turn into economics questions, which is sort of a catch all description of physical limits of energy and chemistry and human motivation. Right now, humans are motived to accrue debt, purchase mass quantities, and go to work so they can buy more. They live a very regulated 8-5, M-F life, for the most part. They used to make things, then they just talked about them instead. Foolish, imho, and the reason we're in this mess in the first place. We'll have to rebuild our entire industrial base from scratch, during energy poverty. That will drive down wages and reduce expectations, which makes things better though it will also push many people to violent acts, which get them killed. So learn to duck. Many of us are going to find ourselves temping for light industrial jobs, factories making essential goods, earning not much money, and having our jobs change every few weeks. We have to replace everything Useful that China is doing, but do it domestically and ship by rail. The useless crap is over, once people figure out that fuel will cost them every penny they've got. That is on the way, too. Sigh.

Mexico is just part of the puzzle. As for running out of time, start thinking NOW about where you can run to, if you must run, and where things are better than they are here and what keeps them that way. Do the research, find the crime and drug stats, see the employment and real estate history, discover who the local employers are. You might move to the midwest and get into contract slavery with a company town, a position you won't like at all. You might move to Town X with good employment, only for that employer to collapse because of some missing component they can't exist without. Or you may move somewhere and rainfall patterns change, drowning or drying crops, causing local collapse. Mobility is to be prized. Useful skills in real world objects is as well. If that's making something only the Chinese make anymore, and has real value, great. Shoe makers are going to make a killing post-peak. Imagine paying $500 for a pair of boots because that's what the materials and labor comes to and people need them. Kinda intimidating, isn't it?

If you really must panic, do it quietly and get it over with. Once you're done, re-read this thread and do some thinking. I personally think that debt is a serious killer, since a debt is kind of like a voluntary slave contract, a promise to pay. These promises are bought and sold. There's an awful lot of infrastructure that needs to be rebuilt in the USA and during the Great Depression, the WPA did that work for around 10 cents a day. Imagine a modern equivalent, only with the threat of not-evicting your family from your home while you're working for them. Staving off refugeeism could be a hell of a carrot, particularly if the govt offers to do so permanently, offering a fixed rate mortgage payment, if you work for them for long enough, maybe even with a declining payment the longer and harder you work. Just enough of a carrot to keep you there, slaving away until you die. Some people may be able to get out in only 3 years, and some may stay for 10 and own their home at the end. It can be done humanely, in a way that its hard to object to it. And we will have a Demo(n)crat for our next president since that's been the pattern lately. Probably Gore, who isn't running yet but wait and watch. The question is, can you avoid joining the WPA? Can you avoid getting drafted into the military to keep fighting their Long War against Terrorism, in Africa as well as Asia? That's been offered as a bill several times now, and doesn't get out of committee. The army is stretched past its limits. People aren't joining up to get killed in Iraq. Something Must Be Done... ahem. A return of the draft is inevitable, so long as this country interferes in other countries.

So, the best way not to get drafted is to be more useful here. Draft boards do care about that. If you're useless and untied, off to be cannon fodder with you. If you get drafted, be useful in the military and learn something with applications afterwards. Just try not to get blown up. Oh, and if you're a woman, be glad they're not drafting you yet. Yet. You might find yourself completely without work and forced to either rely on a man for income, house and food, or sell your body, one way or another, to stay independent. Such were things in the past and may continue in the future. Its a real shame because everyone should be able to earn the right to their own indpendenet way of life. Sigh. That part depresses me most. I suspect there will be many women in the WPA, working towards a land grant farmlet somewhere, assigned by the govt promise. Whether it has water or workable soil is another question.

Of course, the govt might just throw up its hands and do nothing, like they did with Katrina. I don't see that as likely at the national scale. Too many ways to benefit by staying in it and continuing with the oppression. The form it takes is very uncertain and speculative at the utmost.

Sorry, I guess this was more depressing than helpful after all.

[BlueOwl]

Hmmm...

Nice to read this during my lunch hour.  Nice.

Peak oil is a lot more fun in theory than in practice.

If I didn't buy a house 2 years ago I think I'd read the post above differently since I'm otherwise debt free.  However, uncertainty (always uncertainty) is strong enough that I'm not about to go and stick the For Sale sign out front.

Damn.

What kind of inflation would we need such that I can turn a few loaves of bread and an extra sleeping bag into $100,000? I'd like an order of that, please.

[drumhead]

  I remember when I first discovered LATOC. I was checking out crude oil prices, and stumbled upon this site. Needless to say, my life changed dramatically thereafter. Face it, Heretic's posts should be of no surprise(well maybe the 12-18 month part). We all knew this was coming, he just defines it in startling detail. One of the most shocking lines I read in an article, (don't remember which one) from this site was; The Bush administration is behaving like there is no tomorrow, because they know, there is no tomorrow. Looks like Nostradamus & The Mayans were correct.

    The Nostradamus Code World War 3 (2007-2012) (Paperback)
by Michael Rathford (Author)
 

[hereticmonk]

Since we shouldn't count govt out, we should consider the possible ways they can mess things up in new and amazing ways.

1) Deny free travel but ban home foreclosure/eviction, so you have to stay put but you won't lose your house and you prevent refugees.

2) Repeal all taxes on fuel, thus leaving the market to blame for gas prices, setup oil companies as the fall guy rather than govt. Remove DOT crash requirements from experimental vehicles so anybody can build a car, unsafe or not, and use it openly on the roads, untaxed. One of the solutions will work and others can duplicate it.

3) End US involvement in war in the Middle East, troops come home. Allow war in the middle east to spread (they probably can't stop it), thus inducing a superspike sooner. War between Iran and Saudi is already happening, fought via proxies in Iraq (Sunni vs Shia secular civil war). If US gets blamed for war there, invoke isolationism as excuse to rebuild national/domestic economy.

4) Put huge export tariffs on US grain, forcing foreign nations to start growing their own. Punish US companies which buy and then burn/destroy foreign grain (I wish I was joking, but its true). Change farm subsidies to encourage family farming via organic/sustainable methods. Remove certain farm subsidies which encourage unsustainable practices. Offer non-hybrid grains and seeds via federal division of farm bureau, teach soils and sustainable farming in free/cheap classes to the public so quickly become effective.

5) Initiate rationing and artificially pin the price of fuel, forcing the public to change their travel and working habits. Assigment of remaining domestic fuel to farming and emergency services, allowing black market sales to the rich, as well. This would be best done with a ration market, where people sell their ration cards to the highest bidder, legally, and use the money they make to pay their rent, buy food, whatever.

6) Ban GE crops designed to sell weedkillers. Monsanto in particular. Public investigation with major media coverage.

7) "Allow" widespread blackouts in the USA, and widespread temporary fuel shortages, and shortages of some foods, not at the same time, to teach the population about how dependent we are.

Raise water rates in all desert cities (SF, LA, LV, and Phoenix in particular). Cause them to empty by normal economic means and thus save their lives when their water supply suddenly runs out.

9) End car writeoff rules and corporate welfare.

10) Admit collapse of Social Security and Medicare

11) Change squatting/homestead rules, reauthorize conditions for homesteading.

12) Restart the WPA for refugees/debtors. Focus WPA work on major infrastructure, construction of canal systems, road repair, farm land restoration (some lands have physical damage that needs physical repairs, like caliche), forest maintenance, suburban housing retasking, urban farms, etc.

13) or they could do something evil like FedGhettos which seems like too much work to me and more trouble than they're worth.


Yes, those are kinda wishful thinking, but they'd change a lot of things, and restrict our options. Limiting the right of free travel seems unlikely, just like banning guns (which has been going on for years now). I think we'd rather have refugees, burglars, and murders than not, but I always consider the ability to flee a stupid location foremost in my mind. However, govt may have different ideas, especially if they need unwilling farm labor. Forcing you to stay put, and letting you live rent/mortgage payment free would help you focus on making your location self sustainable and encourage invention without forcing anyone or firing a shot. The bankers will be pissed, but there's ways around that. The way to make this stuff work is carrot and stick, something for everyone who matters, and bribes as usual.

[hereticmonk]

There is a caveat, though I wouldn't pin your hopes on it.

Its possible that loss of Mexico won't trigger a superspike. The loss of oil WILL drive up the price of the remaining oil available on the market. That's certain. The price it goes to is unknown, but the basics are the price must be bid up enough to remove users, to bid them out of the marketplace. Govts with high fuel taxes can always repeal them to help their citizens absorb the cost. Norway pays $7/gal now and most of that is tax. Removing the tax will help keep things stable there far longer than here. The USA pays something like 50-70 cents per gallon tax. That is enough to help with a $10/bbl surge in the price of crude oil. Rationing would also help, though it would irritate people. Rationing before Mexico's production drops too much would get people ready for the end of Mexican oil and get people used to carpooling before it runs out, so it would make things actually work. It would also FORCE demand for fuel efficiency, since if you only get 2 gal/day fuel, and you have to go 30 miles to work on your 20 mpg car, you will have no choice but to get a more efficient car, carpool to share fuel, or find a job closer to home. All of which reduce fuel consumption.

It will be unpopular and cause a lot of irritation, thus should be done by the next president... only there isn't really time. It need to happen later this year or early next if there's any hope. Of course, if the price of gasoline doubles with the collapse of Cantarell and the govt is "shocked at this unexpected turn of events" then we won't blame them, and blame Mexico instead for letting us down, making a convenient exit from NAFTA now that canada is out of natural gas and Mexico is out of oil. Having handy excuses is important.

That still leaves us with the 12-18 month problem, and the doubling of fuel prices. Imposing rationing AFTER is a much easier sell, particularly if there is widespread understanding of the problem, and hardships like hoarding, riots, and such. After people get a taste of lawlessness, shortages, blackouts, and famine they'll understand the need for simple things like deep larders (food supply), planning, personal emergency funds, conservation, etc. Its a MUCH easier sell then.

As best as I can tell, Peak Oil is as much a PR problem as it is a scientific one. The public believe they should be able to drive hummers and consume forever because they've been raised in the easiest times ever seen in history. They won't believe in an end of oil because they've been told over and over that there's lots left. They don't understand and they won't understand without good reason, and that reason is a shortage, a national emergency on the scale of the mental impact of Katrina, and 9/11. Everybody has to understand it in their gut that the party really is over, and that this changes EVERYTHING. If the disaster isn't able to do that, things will truly collapse before we get any chance to save ourselves.

We should be prepared for that event. This being a drought year, the trigger will probably be something in the middle east. If nothing happens, Mexico is waiting to cause it all. The bidding war over the remaining oil will be an expensive lesson. Without Canadian natural gas, heating homes in the USA will be more interesting. A fireplace would be a good idea, and something to insulate your windows, like winter shutters. The current mess has already changed public opinion on nuclear powerplants. But it takes 10 years to build them, after all the arguments are done and studies performed and contracts signed. They're so far in the future it doesn't matter anymore.

Which leads us back to 12-18 months again. Look hard at your community and decide if this is the place you want to be stuck for the next few years, or maybe the rest of your life.

[Widgeon]

Wow Heretic - you're filling it up.  Thanks.

I've said several/many times that TPTB are working very hard to allow a US Election to occur in '08, if it turns out to be in their interest to carry that charade forward.  Obviously, if Martial Law is declared before then ... even the American Sheople will be able to figure out that something is awry.  So, logically, they'd rather not resort to Martial Law too much before the '08 Election.

Guaranteed though, after that time (Nov.'08) all bets are off - we'll be in a whole new world.  I myself am not expecting even a sham election to occur.  Something will occur in '08 to allow an effort to suspend the election to occur or to allow outright Martial Law.

[JurisDoctorOfDoom]

  I remember when I first discovered LATOC. I was checking out crude oil prices, and stumbled upon this site. Needless to say, my life changed dramatically thereafter.

Bada-bing.

Face it, Heretic's posts should be of no surprise(well maybe the 12-18 month part). We all knew this was coming, he just defines it in startling detail. One of the most shocking lines I read in an article, (don't remember which one) from this site was; The Bush administration is behaving like there is no tomorrow, because they know, there is no tomorrow.

That was from LATOC too, quoting an article from somewhere.