Just Out: One Second After by Fortschen-a must read!

[TheWarriorMax]

I discussed the near extinction of big game (deer, bear) with coworkers this morning.  I couldn't convince any of them that there wasn't an unlimited supply of deer in my area....which is so f'ing dimwitted.  And these guys deer hunt.  A lot.  Yes, we do have a lot of deer here...now.  They fail to realize that every year, in a 2 week gun season, the deer population is reduced by about 25%.  Most don't hunt.  Now, if nearly everyone starts hunting, or a black market starts whereby skilled hunters trade the deer they kill for other supplies (wood, gas, bullets, clothing, medicine, etc.) then the woods will be empty in a month.  I just could not convince them of that.

Spot on. I recall reading something similar about the US Army in Germany in 1945/46. The first winter after WW2 ended. There was so much destruction of infrastructure/bridges/bakeries/farms etc that the high command (was that Monty and Ike???) ordered the soldiers into the woods to hunt food for the population so the people they had just linerated wouldn't starve. You can imagine the effects of a platoon of veteran infantry coming across a herd of moose in the Black Forest: the venison never had a chance. Something about using a M2 50-cal in single-shot mode...eeesh... 

I still don't think the European wildlife has recovered from that assault yet. 

At least here in Aus the kangaroo population is at plague proportions and it's a pretty useful beast. Doesn't destroy the ground like cattle, is better for your body and the skin can be tanned and used for just about any clothing or shelter insulation imaginable. They say that every animal has just enough brains to cure the hide...

[Hope@ZeroKelvin]

@Warrior:  I am curious, what does Kangaroo taste like?  Which parts do you eat?  I have looked all through my "Joy of Cooking" and while there are recipes for squirrel, possum and raccoon, there are no recipes for Kangaroo.  Although admittedly I have the US version, perhaps the Aussie version is different.

Since I remain a huge Winnie the Pooh fan, I don't think I could eat a "Kanga" after falling in love with that character.  (Although Tigger is my absolute fav.)

[Tropicalgirl]

@Warrior:  I am curious, what does Kangaroo taste like?  Which parts do you eat?  I have looked all through my "Joy of Cooking" and while there are recipes for squirrel, possum and raccoon, there are no recipes for Kangaroo.  Although admittedly I have the US version, perhaps the Aussie version is different.

Since I remain a huge Winnie the Pooh fan, I don't think I could eat a "Kanga" after falling in love with that character.  (Although Tigger is my absolute fav.)
 

   Hope, LOL.  I'm with ya, girl, no kanga for me, either!  Does Joy really have recipes for any of those critters - I thought not!  So, maybe you'd better join us on the "OK MtLouie, its Friday night and I'm drunk" thread, whadya say??

[Hope@ZeroKelvin]

@Warrior:  I am curious, what does Kangaroo taste like?  Which parts do you eat?  I have looked all through my "Joy of Cooking" and while there are recipes for squirrel, possum and raccoon, there are no recipes for Kangaroo.  Although admittedly I have the US version, perhaps the Aussie version is different.

Since I remain a huge Winnie the Pooh fan, I don't think I could eat a "Kanga" after falling in love with that character.  (Although Tigger is my absolute fav.)
 

   Hope, LOL.  I'm with ya, girl, no kanga for me, either!  Does Joy really have recipes for any of those critters - I thought not!  So, maybe you'd better join us on the "OK MtLouie, its Friday night and I'm drunk" thread, whadya say??

Yes!  Starting on page 513, there is a recipe for Rabbit, Squirrel, Porcupine, Opossum, Raccoon, Muskrat, Woodchuck, Beaver and ARMADILLO!  There is even a cartoon pix of how to skin a squirrel for Fishy on page 515!

Then on pages 516 there are recipes for Venison, peccary, bear, wild boar (and stuffed boar's head).  No kidding.

Whew!  That's a relief!  I can eat in the PO world as most of the above list has gotten really fat on my garden and from my bird feeders.

See ya on the LATOC drunk but cool chick thread...

[Tinfoilhatmann]

I'm reading OSA now and its one depressing book. I knew we were fucked if the EMP or solar flare cometh but that book really breaks it down for you.

I take small comfort in the fact that I have family and a place to go where lots of food can be grown if it does happen. There are too many other variables to worry about. That book makes me want to curl up in the fetal position and just say "fuck it."

I won't though.

[Satori]

EMP getting some national play

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/computersecurity/2009-09-16-electrical-grid-attack_N.htm

http://blogs.usatoday.com/sciencefair/2009/09/conference-warns-of-potential-emp-dangers.html?obref=obnetwork

[Hope@ZeroKelvin]

EMP getting some national play

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/computersecurity/2009-09-16-electrical-grid-attack_N.htm

http://blogs.usatoday.com/sciencefair/2009/09/conference-warns-of-potential-emp-dangers.html?obref=obnetwork

Stop freaking me out.  I am rounding in the ICU waiting for a lab result and it would absolutely horrible if all the power went off.  There are 22 beds here and every patient is on a ventilator, 2 are getting hemodialysis.  The hospital generator is only rated for 6 hours before they have to switch to their backup, which is only rated for 4 hours.  That is at full power.  Hospitals have #1 priority in power restoration, did you know that?   Even rank over the police.
 
Am covering my ears and eyes and just running away saying "la la la la la don't want to know this".

There, all better.

[Satori]

a WHOLE 10 hours of backup power

you should be freakin

I wonder how long the nursing staff could keep those patients alive using ambu bags??

[Hope@ZeroKelvin]

Yup.  At full hospital power.  If the cut the AC and non essential areas, we are told we could get 24.  Does not appeal being in a hospital in Houston in triple digit heat.

If it looks like a prolonged power down situation, the hospital will get some more generators prepositioned.

As to the ambu bag scenario, you get really tired after about 15 min, for me at least.

Yikes!

[Tinfoilhatmann]

Well, with an EMP there won't be any additional generators being brought to the scene. They won't run any better than the computer controller one that is already there.

You are missing the true danger of EMP. Pretty much nothing with solid state electronics in it will run. That includes all the equipment that the hospital uses for life support, even if there is a way to generate the power to turn it all back on. No cars, no trucks, no gas pumps, no cellphones, generators, computers.... nothing. Unless it is hardened against EMP, happened to be in an EMP proof cave, or has no solid state electronics (think tubes and coils).

That is a worst case scenario. It is possible, and there would be no warning. From 2009 to 1909 in an instant.

Read the book. It is terrifying in its plausibility.

[Hope@ZeroKelvin]

Well, with an EMP there won't be any additional generators being brought to the scene. They won't run any better than the computer controller one that is already there.

You are missing the true danger of EMP. Pretty much nothing with solid state electronics in it will run. That includes all the equipment that the hospital uses for life support, even if there is a way to generate the power to turn it all back on. No cars, no trucks, no gas pumps, no cellphones, generators, computers.... nothing. Unless it is hardened against EMP, happened to be in an EMP proof cave, or has no solid state electronics (think tubes and coils).

That is a worst case scenario. It is possible, and there would be no warning. From 2009 to 1909 in an instant.

Read the book. It is terrifying in its plausibility.

I did read the book.  Gave me nightmares.  The most realistic parts of that book were the sections on the medical system, IMHO.  There is some debate as to how bad an EMP would be, may not be a total wipe out of electronics, but pretty close.

Modern medicine in the event of an EMP will fold up like a paper hat.   99% of the patients in a hospital would die either immediately or within 3 days, unless their families got them out and their medical conditions were survivable.

So, all you guys, better do some good reading about medical preps.  Rawles has one of the best (survivalblog.com).

[Tinfoilhatmann]

I just hope it never gets that bad.

[Hope@ZeroKelvin]

I just hope it never gets that bad.

You and me brother.  It is one of my daily prayers to whatever God(s) may be listening.

[maurice]

Fortschen put forth a great deal of research into probable die-off outcomes.
He mentions at one point near the end that the mortality rates varied greatly,
from about 50% to maybe 90% over the course of the first year alone.
What would die-offs look like (qualitatively) at different mortality rates, based
on actual incidents with reliabe eyewitness accounts? For example, one could
rank the following incidents in order of the mortality rates:

Bataan Death March<Donner Party<Titanic<Black Hole of Calcutta.

These disasters include the range of mortality rates mentioned by
Fortschen.

Can we realistically prepare themselves to survive such dire straits?

[Hope@ZeroKelvin]

Fortschen put forth a great deal of research into probable die-off outcomes.
He mentions at one point near the end that the mortality rates varied greatly,
from about 50% to maybe 90% over the course of the first year alone.
What would die-offs look like (qualitatively) at different mortality rates, based
on actual incidents with reliabe eyewitness accounts? For example, one could
rank the following incidents in order of the mortality rates:

Bataan Death March<Donner Party<Titanic<Black Hole of Calcutta.

These disasters include the range of mortality rates mentioned by
Fortschen.

Can we realistically prepare themselves to survive such dire straits?

Those were events for which people had no preparation and were unable to either physically escape or have any chance of improving their situation.

IMHO, this book is spot on.  I think it is difficult for most people to realize how many fragile and "marginal" people are around these days compared to even 10 years ago, thanks for medical advances AND cheap oil/food/services.

I would be very surprised in the event of a major EMP event if 10% of the population survived 12 months.  The first thing to go down will be the water.  Water is piped into all the major cities, that requires power.  3 days without water, you die.  Places like LA will be a huge death zone very quickly.

There is only 3 days worth of food in the groc stores thanks to our "just in time" distribution system.  Even here in the Gulf Coast, after Allison, Katrina, Rita and Ike, only about 5% of the folks have 1 week of food/water stored, sheesh.  People in the cities will either flee to the countryside and starve or be killed by the folks defending their own.  Or will huddle in the cities eating all the food stores and then each other.

Just about everybody in a hospital or nursing home will die, either from the lack of water/food or from their underlying medical conditions.  Diabetics, heart patients, etc, all will die within 6 months when the meds run our or the strain of living in 1890s tech catches up with them.

Sorry, guys, but I have re-read this book as well as the papers it was based on and I find the total breakdown of society he writes about to be entirely plausible.

Missile Shield anyone?