INFLATIONISTS vs. DEFLATIONISTS -- a compendium in progress

[graveday]

http://evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1803

There is the link.  Be sure to listen to the two Brit comedians.  They help put the Hirsch interview in perspective, heh.  I got this from Bill Hicks in the peak oil news forum here.  He just focused on the comedians.

[ninakat]

d00gie, thanks for the great posting. That "spark" you mentioned at the end was interesting -- could certainly be the start of something. 

[d00gie]

d00gie, thanks for the great posting. That "spark" you mentioned at the end was interesting -- could certainly be the start of something. 

Yeah, I meant to say  "First spark?:" with a question mark.

[d00gie]

The government has taken over just about every part of the economy -- home lending, auto manufacture, medicine, you name it.  Prepare for your IRA and 401(k) to be forcibly converted into Treasuries next.  Along with other big new purchases of Treasuries by the "Household Sector".
...
The rest of the world has stopped buying Treasuries, and even without the criminal "healthcare" and "cap-and-tax" programs weighing us down several trillion further, the ONLY place that sufficient new Treasury issuance can come from is from purchases by the Fed with new M0 currency created from thin air, and looting of people's electronic and paper assets.

They WILL do it.  Count on it.  They've already started.

Then the real effects of hyperinflation begin.  Because, while the "sole cause of hyperinflation is always too much government spending", the precipitating circumstance that turns that hyperinflation (which has ALREADY BEGUN for over a year now) into soaring prices is the *LOSS OF CONFIDENCE* in the currency.

Zero Hedge - This Is The Government: Your Legal Right To Redeem Your Money Market Account Has Been Denied

[d00gie]

the precipitating circumstance that turns that hyperinflation (which has ALREADY BEGUN for over a year now) into soaring prices is the *LOSS OF CONFIDENCE* in the currency.

Vincent Bressler - Financial System Will Go Out With A Bang  (Posted Monday, 4 January 2010)

Ultimately everyone will realize that they are being paid in monopoly money, and we will have the explosion.

Dynamics of the explosion:
The explosion will be a rapid hyper-inflationary event.  Money will race into gold and silver.  The GLD and SLV exchange traded funds will at first receive a tremendous influx, and the owners of these structured financial products will make sure that there is always plenty of supply.  As people realize that closed end equivalents like CEF that have real gold and silver are appreciating much more rapidly, money will abandon GLD and SLV and pour into CEF and probably the stocks of gold and silver miners.  At this point the markets may go into lock down mode, as the authorities sense the explosion and make moves to stop it.  Lines will start forming at banks as people try to get their cash out in order to buy physical gold and silver at coin shops.  The result will be a bank holiday.

The world will look very different when the banks and stock exchanges open up again.

[graveday]

The world looks different already.  It looks like Goldman Sachs.

[milwaukeezombie]

Here in Milwaukee WI inflation has definitely started picking up. I work in retail at a Walgreens and i can tell you food prices have gone up about 15 percent or more in the last 3 months alone. Just an FYI for those of you about prices at Walmart and Walgreens is relative. The district managers competitively shop eachothers stores so prices range from region to region and also store to store. Walgreens for one will raise their prices at a specific store if they are farther from a Walmart then normal. Now that you know how prices are determined here are a few observations i have noticed in the area.
1) inventory at all Walgreens has been shrunk 20 percent nation wide
2) Walgreens has shortened their shelves in height on average of 1 foot to account for this inventory reduction.
3) less product has been put on the shelf ( stores are instructed to keep 3 or less of slow selling items)
4) Walmarts have widened their aisles to make the store seem full with product still
5) Ever since September 2009 sales have dropped off a cliff. (Some districts usually around 30 stores have had -5 percent in sales in a month)

Other local news:
1) haircut prices are up on average 4 dollars (crazy isn't it?)
2) smaller retail stores are dropping like flies
3) EBT usage has gone up a 1000% in the last year alone
4) WI borrowed 900 million dollars from the FED to fund its unemployment in 2009
5) crop yields in 2009 were horrible (look for soy prices to rise)
6) apartment rental is a buyers market (name your own terms withe rental manager)
7) cigarette sales are through the roof
State has decided to plow snow less and salt less ( first snow of the season of 5 inches decided to plow only main roads)

Check back i will post updates of the local doom. Also if anybody has any questions about big retail ask away.

[graveday]

Walgreens for one will raise their prices at a specific store if they are farther from a Walmart then normal.

That alone is a warped piece of information.  I raise my voice if I am farther from my family than normal.  The rest does not seem inflationary, quite the opposite, raised prices or not.  If prices are being raised, I see it more as a from of cashiering, not cashing in.  The former has overtones of cashing out as well as just crashing, period.

[croesus]

Here is a well-reasoned article that I find very convincing.  As far as I can tell, it has not been posted yet:

http://www.garynorth.com/public/5745.cfm

"Why the Deflationist Argument is Wrong in Both Theory and Practice"

[SL Sheehan]

meh..just print more money already...done.

 

[d00gie]

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1830-401kIRA-Screw-Job-Coming.html

401k/IRA Screw Job Coming?

Karl Denninger
Market Ticker
Friday, January 8. 2010

Now this is a guaranteed rape job.

In a short conversation this noontime that CNBC apparently has omitted from their archives (Why's that folks?) Rick Santelli was talking about a potential to effectively force money into the Treasury market.

Where would they get this?

From your 401k and IRA accounts!

From Businessweek:

    The U.S. Treasury and Labor Departments will ask for public comment as soon as next week on ways to promote the conversion of 401(k) savings and Individual Retirement Accounts into annuities or other steady payment streams, according to Assistant Labor Secretary Phyllis C. Borzi and Deputy Assistant Treasury Secretary Mark Iwry, who are spearheading the effort.

Let me tell you what this is - it is an attempt to prevent the collapse of the Treasury market!

Forcing people into Treasuries as an "annuity" is exactly what Social Security allegedly is.  Except that Treasury stole the money that was collected in FICA taxes and spent it!

The government has taken over just about every part of the economy -- home lending, auto manufacture, medicine, you name it.  Prepare for your IRA and 401(k) to be forcibly converted into Treasuries next.  Along with other big new purchases of Treasuries by the "Household Sector".
...
The rest of the world has stopped buying Treasuries, and even without the criminal "healthcare" and "cap-and-tax" programs weighing us down several trillion further, the ONLY place that sufficient new Treasury issuance can come from is from purchases by the Fed with new M0 currency created from thin air, and looting of people's electronic and paper assets.

They WILL do it.  Count on it.  They've already started.

Then the real effects of hyperinflation begin.  Because, while the "sole cause of hyperinflation is always too much government spending", the precipitating circumstance that turns that hyperinflation (which has ALREADY BEGUN for over a year now) into soaring prices is the *LOSS OF CONFIDENCE* in the currency.

So, for those who can see the writing on the wall about all the other disasters, it should be quite clear that the only safe place to store *liquid* wealth [i.e. not land, ammo, equipment and canned goods -- i.e. not stuff you should KEEP and not trade] is in money --*not* in currency, or debt, or other derivative empty promises.  *This* is what makes money what it **IS**, and currency and credit -- NOT.

Take your wealth out of the banking system *entirely*, suck up any pride, stubbornness, ignorance, denial, shame, and cognitive dissonance you might have had about the aforementioned fact, and stride proudly and resolutely into your local coin/bullion dealer and buy a big bag of pre-1965 dimes.

Don't say nothin' -- just do it.

[graveday]

Jesus, Doogie, you stopped me on a dime.  I want to rename this thread more along the lines of you can get it up, or you already did, and now you're happy.  Kind of a Jolly Roger happy.

[d00gie]

Jesus, Doogie, you stopped me on a dime.  I want to rename this thread more along the lines of you can get it up, or you already did, and now you're happy.  Kind of a Jolly Roger happy.

Nah, it's a mellow sort of happy.  More like a 'dime bag" sort of happy.   

[graveday]

Temporary at any rate, until it becomes fatal.  Don't know much about dime bags, but do know what you're saying.

I try to get by on wine and poetry (a Greg Brown snip), organic veg and compost tea, keep it near and dear and volunteer.  Send the money away as it trickles in each day, but not to any assholes, rather keep them at bay.  Any port in a storm.  I like my neighbor's version.

[d00gie]

Temporary at any rate, until it becomes fatal.  Don't know much about dime bags, but do know what you're saying.

I try to get by on wine and poetry (a Greg Brown snip), organic veg and compost tea, keep it near and dear and volunteer.  Send the money away as it trickles in each day, but not to any assholes, rather keep them at bay.  Any port in a storm.  I like my neighbor's version.

I assume the wine is for you and the compost tea is for the veg. 

Well it's not really about getting "rich" off the destruction of Western Civilization, but about having the wherewithal to deal with upcoming contingencies.  I figure to some significant extent I'm going to be helping the clueless, unprepared, and walking wounded around me.  Better to have their rifles inside the perimeter pointed out rather than vice-versa.

But seriously, silver is so utterly and profoundly mispriced, even a little bit is going to go a *very* long way when the ludicrous overhang of paper contracts implodes and actual physical supply and demand reassert themselves and it reverts to the mean.  And overshoots.