INFLATIONISTS vs. DEFLATIONISTS -- a compendium in progress

[ninakat]

Thanks for that, vic_d. Martenson is one of the few who doesn't seem to be ego-tied to the 'flation outcome, as evidenced by that very statement you quoted. And don't the money masters always win? That's one of the primary reasons I'm still expecting inflation to be the outcome.

[graveday]

Thanks for that, vic_d. Martenson is one of the few who doesn't seem to be ego-tied to the 'flation outcome, as evidenced by that very statement you quoted. And don't the money masters always win? That's one of the primary reasons I'm still expecting inflation to be the outcome.

Is that your ego talking?  I think Martenson is also not ego involved by saying, in effect, no one really knows.  It is a tightrope they are walking, or pushing, as it were.  Or maybe better, blowing up a bubble.  The trick is to know when to stop before you burst it, before it even has a chance to dance off into the sunlight and burst on its own.  They haven't known when to stop in the past, and the bubbles popped and got soap in everyone's eyes.

[graveday]

http://www.doomers.us/forum2/index.php?action=post;topic=55988.msg841833;quote=841833;sesc=b51d3850dc6a81b15ca1aaef5eaa8fda

[Xenopus]

IMO, this is a stupid argument. We know we've got deflation now. Inflation might show up at some time in the future, though I rather doubt it. TPTB have been trying to produce inflation for ages because it is the only way to get rid of (national) debt. And they can't do it.

[ninakat]

Calling this debate "stupid" is really not very helpful to your point of view. The economists and analysts on both sides of this debate are making very intelligent arguments, in fact. And that's why choosing a side is so difficult. As to your other points, quite a few reputable analysts would take issue with your doubts about inflation showing up in the future -- in fact, many of them say that we have inflation right now. But as others have posted here, we're seeing both price inflation (cost of living) and price deflation (assets, esp. housing) at the same time.

[graveday]

Seems some are makiing the case for hold your breath preflation.  To me the great arguments on both sides are like a marital argument, where it all smooths over when someone gets fucked.  This is probably wrong though, as I have been royally fucked twice now and don't feel any smoothing has happened, only preparations for more of the same.

[ArmaGoof]

Seems some are makiing the case for hold your breath preflation.  To me the great arguments on both sides are like a marital argument, where it all smooths over when someone gets fucked.  This is probably wrong though, as I have been royally fucked twice now and don't feel any smoothing has happened, only preparations for more of the same.

I think everyone DID hold their breath over various events, but are now simply concentrating on just drawing the next breath, with full knowledge that our days in the sun are minimally numbered.

[vic_d]

Here is an article explaining in simple language the financial ponzi scheme of economy and all ponzi schemes by definition must continually expand or they collapse. So, Inflate to buy time or perish right away.

He is calling for ultimate death by inflation:

The American Economy in One Chart

http://www.safehaven.com/article-14999.htm

The so called economy is nothing more than a consumption Ponzi Scheme. That has needed continuous feeding with a diet of ever decreasing interest rates and ever increasing consumer debt to survive. When you take on a loan they only lend you the PRINICIPAL they do not loan you the INTEREST, so either more debt is created by continually dropping interest rates, to cover this interest. Or you make the population bigger, more people entering the perpetual debt machine and taking on debt, hence all the immigration over the last 10 years. Whatever happens the total debt outstanding made up of Government, Consumer and Corporate debt. Must I repeat MUST get bigger or the system implodes. PONZI SCHEME.

Now we are at the 0%, and this gigantic Ponzi scheme of an economy has been exposed for what it really is nothing more than an elaborate financial PONZI SCHEME, there is no plan B. Apart from the Government spending lots of freshly printed Dollars therefore devaluing the purchasing power of all existing Dollars, Ultimately, it will be death by inflation.

[ninakat]

Oh no -- not another prediction!

We're In The Final Month Before Inflation Hits
Joe Weisenthal | Nov. 16, 2009

The US CPI comes out this week, and analysts at RBS believe we're now in the final month of the deflationary readings we've been getting for quite sometime.

We wonder how many analysts in Japan, in the early 90s, made similar notes about the deflationary run coming to an end, only to be nearly 20-years early.

(continues)

[alan2102]

Some insulting words for deflationistas from Jim Willie's latest:


http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/willie111809.html
 Where are the Deflation Knuckleheads who tended to dominate the web journals last spring
and summer, in incredible dense vapid clueless fashion??? What a tremendously misguided
group. They follow religiously the deteriorating economies, miss the twin storm, ignore the
power of the unprecedented monetary inflation, and somehow overlook the entire global
movement if not revolt against the USDollar in a grand Paradigm Shift. They represent the
worst economists in the alternative media on web journals. Their tunnel vision on the
falling asset price effect left them vulnerable to missing a tsunami on their own doorstep,
incredibly. They still do not offer an explanation of why crude is at the $80 price level
again.

[graveday]

I see a lot of huff and puff on both sides, and top and bottom too, I guess.  Greed can get you very far.  So can fear.  There's not much money in deflation.  There's a lot in inflation, heh.  Or meh, we're screwed multiply no matter what the dollar does or doesn't do.  It is a matter of time, but who knows how much time? 

[ninakat]

GEAB N°39 is available! Global systemic crisis – States faced with three brutal options in 2010: inflation, high taxation or default

Public announcement GEAB N°39 (November 16, 2009)

As anticipated by LEAP/E2020 last February, in the absence of major reappraisal of the international monetary order, the world is now entering the phase of geopolitical dislocation of the global systemic crisis. In 2010, as protectionism and the economic and social depression will gain momentum, a large number of States will be compelled to choose between three brutal options: inflation, high taxation or defaulting on their debt.

(continues)

[ninakat]

The Next Crisis: Spiraling Inflation - Part 2
Shield your portfolio from the next stage in the crisis
by Nick Barisheff, Bullion Management Group Inc. | November 25, 2009

(...)

For reasons we noted in Part 1, and because the Fed can’t simply shut off the money spigot at will, inflation is on its way. When it arrives it will accelerate rapidly and be very difficult to contain. An investment in gold and precious metals is the best way to inflation-proof your portfolio, shield it from eventual sky-high interest rates, and take advantage of a secular growth opportunity that has many years to run. In this troubling economic environment, it is time to strip away old thinking and plan a different kind of investment strategy, because the next 20 years will not be like the last 20. Now is the time to make an investment in the future, and the future is precious metals bullion.

[AreWeThereYet]

Once the taxes kick in next year then that will force velocity of the money supply.  That will trigger inflation.  Bernake will have to pull some mighty big rabbits out of his hat should the tide turn and inflatio starts..by then it will be too late to reign in all that money he printed.

Banks not lending and consumers not buying today is keeping inflation in check..actually helping deflation by not buying,lending,borrowing.

We have a boatload of taxes on the horizon...Bush cuts expiring, healthcare, cap&trade (if passed), war surtax (if passed).  All kick in next year and will hit all income levels in one way or another.

[graveday]

Well, Arewethereyet, I think you just answered your own avatar.  How many can do that?  Graveday can.